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Saturday 30 January preview below

A handy day with the best bet and value bets both winning well.

Suggested Caulfield Quaddie for $14.40 for 10%

R6   2, 3, 5, 6, 9, 11
R7   1, 3, 4
R8   2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
R9   3

Update 10.42 a.m. next update by noon

Head to Heads 

Race 9 The Good Fight $1.75 to beat Robusto.

Suggested multi of the day at Trentham: Race 6 5.Force Of Will $1.75 place FF, Race 7 1.Rock On Wood $1.25 place Ff, Race 9 Head to Head The Good Fight $1.75 to beat Robusto $10 returns $38.20

These two last met at Riccarton in the NZ Cup The Good Fight beat home Robusto by 1 length and meets her 2kgs better off which is equal 1.3 lengths, so is has a 2.3L advantage and this is going to be a stronger run 3200m and as Robusto is suspect over 3200m, there looks to be a clear advantage to The Good Fight. RP $1.40, $1.75

Update Saturday 8.20 a.m.

Good morning,

Another very good day of racing at Trentham. The rail is out 3 metres which is good as the inside was definitely no advantage last Saturday. Maybe this is the day good luck goes Rock On Wood’s way and bad luck with Melody Belle, as she has drawn to get held up if the riders ride tight. Rocky has got out to $2.40 on the Winsurance bet for 2nd, and may go out further closer to start time as the money will come for Melody Belle. Savatiano  does look the best bet all day at Sydney – just a classy mare with a will to win, ideally placed again fresh up.

Force Of Will  is a very good filly and may get out further in price from the $4.20 in race 6. Even though Waisake has come into $3 FF now, he ticks a lot of boxes and just looks like he will relish the 3200m. Whale Song  in the last,  looks well placed.

I’ll post an update by noon with any Head to Heads or other bets, including a suggested quaddie for Australia.

Bruce R, who won the Heads Up bet, has a multi with Rock On Wood at $2.40 on the Winsurance option for money back for 2nd, into Savatiano at Sydney to return $153.60 or $64 if Savatiano wins and Rocky runs second.

Bet of the day Sydney Race 7 5.Savatiano $3.20 FF now $1.95 after scratchings so deductions will apply if you backed her earlier. 1st $2

Value bet of the Day Trentham Race 6 5.Force Of Will $4.20 FF 1st $4.50 

Speed Map Special Trentham Race 7 1.Rock On Wood $4 FF or $2.40 Winsurance and money back if he runs second.

Suggested Trentham quaddie for $11.20 for 10%

R7   1, 3
R8   1, 4, 6, 7, 12, 13, 18
R9   7, 10
R10   1, 2, 5, 6

Sydney Saturday

Some even fields with not a lot of value. Rock On Wood could have the luck in running go his way this time with Melody Belle likely to trail or be three back inner and need luck to get out in time. Best bet in that race is Rock On Wood to Win at $2.40 and money back for second on the Winsurance option.

Savatiano  looks very well placed fresh up at Sydney. Whale Song looks well placed in the last at Trentham.

Staying clear of Riccarton. Same old horses going round and very even fields. Next update by 9 a.m. Saturday.

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

5.Savatiano is a very good mare and excels fresh up with 5 wins from 8 starts. She maps to get the ideal run in behind an even tempo and looked ready to win in her recent trial when under a hold in 4th place. The predicted Soft track is ideal. RP $2.80, $3.30 Ff

 

Heads Up Below with a preview of the Thorndon and Cup plus much more.

And here is the link to the Tony Lee Appreciation Facebook page

 

Trentham

The speed map shows early speed out wide and an even tempo likely.

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

16.The Hottie looked good winning over 1200m then last start just missed the jump a little, got back on the inner but ran home nicely for 4th. She needs 1400m now and drawn to land in behind an even tempo and be hard to beat. RP $4.80, $6 FF

Dangers:

8.Mahoe won in a very good speed rating two starts back and good third last start. This is easier and just needs a good run from the tricky draw.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

4.No Filter is racing very well with the best FR at his last start, and was a bit unluck then when beaten to a gap. Drawn to get all favours from the inside draw. RP $3.60

Danger:

6.Hold The Press  is unbeaten and has looked good. Won recent trial but wide draw makes it harder.

Race 3

The speed map shows a fast pace setting it up for a closer.

2.Kick Start  won very well here last start in very good closing sectionals from the back. There looks to be a solid pace here so he can get back and swamp them again. RP $6.00

Dangers:

4.I’m Buzz  won well two starts back and was unlucky last start behind Kick Start.

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race.

7.Pokuru’s Gift  goes very well fresh and from the inside draw, should lead or trail and get every chance. RP $4.20, $4.40 FF

2.Mr Universe has been rating well in stronger fields. Likely to snag and with the fast tempo, come at them late.

1.Cavallo Veloce  is back to his best but has a big weight.

5.Kapinos  drawn to get a good run and 1000m suits.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

7.Posh Porotene  found the well late last start behind the smart Our Hail Mary. Third up with Lisa sticking with him and 2100m suits. RP $4

Dangers:

10.Gerda ran two good races  here last year. Drawn to get all favours and ready for a middle distance now.

Race 6

The speed map shows a few going out early and a few in behind, so an even tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

5.Force Of Will has looked very good in all of three runs, including a win over older horses. Her closing sectionals have been well above average on the day in each of them. She will get back but with an even pace likely, she should be able to snag from her wide draw and with a track into it, has to be the one to beat. RP $3.80, $4.20 FF

Dangers:

1.Fleetwood Maca  had no favours last start over 2000m at Ellerslie. better suited back to 1600m. negative is she has had some hard racing

2.Love For All drawn to get all favours and beat a few of these home last start.

4.Sweet Anna  back to 1600m suits and has Opie up.

Race 7

The speed map shows The Mitigator leading with Deerfield likely to sit 2nd outer but may press on and lead if The Mitigator goes to slow, which could put Melody Belle 3 back inner. A moderate to even tempo likely. Rock On Wood looks a good chance to be in the 1×1 or 3 back outer.

Confidence: 2/5

1.Rock On Wood  won the Captain Cook here over the same 1600m distance after doing it 3 wide in the open beating Concert Hall who then won the Zabeel Classic with Rock On Wood a certainty beaten locked up on the fence till too late. He’s been kept fresh for this which is ideal and he maps to get the 1×1 or 3 back inner, depending on what Deerfield does. I’m picking Deerfield will press on and lead which will put Melody belle 3 back inner giving the advantage to Rock On Wood. So he is the one for me based on that. $2.80, $3.60 FF The best bet is $2.40 Winsurance for second.

Dangers:

3.Melody Belle is a  top class mare who trialed up ok when beaten by Amarelinha who got beaten by Aegon last Saturday. She is fresh up over 1600m and could end up 3 back inner if these riders are on the ball. From there, Rocky could get a winning break on her. But then again, she just may still be too good. An intriguing race.

7.Sinarahma if she can begin better from the handy draw she is on a nice weight to place.

5.Shadows Cast game third last start  and if he ends up 2nd outer, can place from there.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

4.Son Of Bielski  ended up leading last start and ran a fair 6th. Better from in behind and should get that here. RP $5

Dangers:

13.Cate Blanco strong second last start and drawn to get a good run.

1.Boston Strong Boy  much better run last start and can win with a good trip.

6.Den Bosch  nice horse who can upset fresh up.

Race 9

The sped map shows Superhoof and a dew out wide going forward. If Justamaiz jumps better can be a pace influence as well.

Confidence: 2/5

10.Waisake  could not have been more impressive here last start. Allan Sharrock has aimed him at this race all along and most of these have been going round for a while. He has drawn to do no extra work to the 600 metre mark and on the minimum of 53kgs, down from 59 last start, he will feel that over 3200m, so he ticks a few boxes. He reminds me of Kiwi with the way he looks, relaxes and gallops, so if he is 75% as good as him, maybe he could emulate his win in this in 1983 .   RP $2.90, $3.20 FF into $3.00 now

Dangers:

14.Vee Cece  ran an unlucky 7th in the Waikato Cup over 2400m and has raced like she needs 3200m now to show her best. Upset chance.

7.The Good Fight ran an unlucky second in this last year and gets in on a good weight.

8.Dragon Storm won the NZ Cup and is a tough stayer. Good fifth in this race least year.

Race 10

The speed map shows Father Lenihan likely to lead with a few looking to get in behind him ensuring a moderate to even tempo.

Confidence:2/5

2.Whale Song  ran a strong finishing 4th in an Open handicap two starts back then ran on well and just blew out late here last start in a stronger Open handicap. Drops back in class here and gets 2kgs off. Maps to land around 7th or 8th and with a moderate to  even tempo likely, looks well placed to take this out. He does jump evenly and may land closer than mapped depending on how the track is panning out, as Michael Pitman is a strong believer in track patterns. Rates on top in the Formpro ratings after weight adjustments RP $4.00, $5 FF

Dangers:

5.Colorado Star  good second here last start fitter for that and does look the main danger.

1.Father Lenihan  is the likely leader and has been racing well. If left alone and leaders are winning, he could pinch it.

6.Awatane probably found 1400m too short here last start but still ran on well. Top 3rd over 1600m before that. Drawn to get a good trip.

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!