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Sunday 31 January 2021

Pukekohe

Ripped looks the best chance in the first. Macs is an intriguing runner in race 3. Opalescence will be talked right up so Macs price could blow and be worth a spec, at least for a place. There are $25k Guaranteed quaddies today so I’ve posted suggested bets for those.

Bet of the day Race 1 7.Ripped $3.70 Ff

Value bet of the day Race 5 7.Manrico $8 FF 1st $6

Suggested early quaddie for 10% for $14

R2   1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9
R3   2, 4
R4   3, 6
R5    1, 2, 3, 4, 7

Suggested late quaddie for 10% for $20 Yes paid $2439 so $243 returned for every 10%

R6   1, 4, 5, 6, 12
R7   3, 7
R8   1, 9, 11, 12
R9    1, 2, 3, 5, 11

Race 1

Confidence:2/5 in a very good field

7.Ripped  ran into a very good mare last start, Entriviere, but ran a strong closing second running the second fastest closing sectionals, and she franked that form beating the Open horses next up. Being a back runner, the tempo will be crucial and the speed map says it will be fast enough for him to get over these. I’d prefer to see him over 1400m but he may still be sharp enough to beat these. RP $3.50

Dangers:

13.Ocean Belle is a good mare who had a quiet trial. Watch the market move on her.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

7.Madam Hass  beat Vamos Bebe who won impressively next up. Drawn to get all favours and weighted nicely. RP $3

9.New York Jazz  rates well and could upset with a good run likely.

1.Marscapone needs a perfect ride to win with that weight.

Race 3

Confidence: 3/5

2.Opalescence rates at least 5 lengths clear of these after weight adjustments in the Formpro Ratings. She drops out of harder 3yo races and last start copped two bad checks and was blocked for a run in the straight and was eased down. This time, from the inside draw, she should be able to lead and does look very well placed with 4kgs off to lead all the way. RP $1.80 BUT

4.Macs  had the blinkers go on last start and won very impressively leading all the way, plus his splits were very strong. He ran to the 600m mark 1 length slower than the R65 race won by Laurant from off the pace, yet he came home 3 lengths quicker to run a 3 length quicker time. So we know he can win an R65 race with no trouble so if he gets a soft sit outside Opalescence, or even if he leads if she makes a mistake, he can upset her. An interesting race. Good quinella.

Race 4

Confidence:2/5

6.Three Sixty  has been rating strongly in good R65 fields and hasn’t had a lot of luck. Strikes a weaker field here and just needs a good ride to win. RP $3.20

Race 5

Confidence:1/5 in a tricky race.

7.Manrico  drops right down in weight but up in class. He maps to either lead or trail and with not much pressure likely, could upset the favourites. RP $6, $8

Race 6

A Bookie Benefit race.

In order: 5-4-6-12-1

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

3.Royal Performer won very well at Te Rapa in good time, then last start was too strong again over 1600m. gets 2kgs off and should get a nice run in behind the leaders and be the one to beat. RP $2.20

Dangers:

7.Jason Belltree  ran home like he wants more ground at Ellerslie. Gets in here on 52kgs which will help but $2.00 is a bit short.

Race 8

Confidence:1/5 in an open race

In order: 11-1-12-9

Race 9

Confidence: 1/5 in another open race

2.Lilikoi  gets 4kgs off and is in peak form. Needs a dry track and looks well placed.

1.Cha Siu Bao  rating best off slow starts. Can win with the right beginning and run.

3.Patrachor  keeps stepping up and has a strong bursting finish if saved for the last run.

5.Il Affare  is a nice filly and with a freshen up could do it.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!