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Saturday 6 February 2021 preview below

Randwick race 9 No Quality bets today

Blaze A Trail looks ready. James will need all of his skills to get him to the right part of the straight but he is a good horse and well placed. $40 win tote. James tried to get off the inside but as it turned out out if he had stuck where he was the winner came up that inside lane. Just one of those days where we were close but no cigar. Some good feedback though on potting favourites and we’ll see if we can get it back next Saturday at Te Rapa.

Randwick Race 8

I just couldn’t have All Time Legend at $1.70. Comfortably  beaten. Mount Poppa looks ready $30 win tote. Bugger- looked the winner 200m out but winner too tough. Back for the last race.

Randwick Race 6

Got that wrong! If you took the suggested quaddie it could be a consolation.

No bet on Peltzer- he just doesn’t look fit enough to me to win fresh up. 1st $5 

Suggested quaddie for Randwick 

Cost $11 for 100%

R6   1
R7   1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
R8   7
R9   6

Suggested quaddie for Caulfield ( Not in the bets for Taranaki ) We have $70 left and I’ll be looking to bet at Sydney, so watch out for updates there for Races 6,8 and 9

$56 for 10%

R6   2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
R7   1, 3, 4, 6
R8   2, 10
R9   1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10

Race 8

Unless Concert Hall jumps really well, she is very likely to settle midfield or worse and the way the track is playing, she isn’t a $1.75 chance. Camino Rocosso, IF he begins well, can slide over and lead but he can miss it and end up wide as there will be a few looking to lead or get near that rail now. So pass on the race. I’ll save the $70 left for Sydney.

Race 7

Gee that rail is the place to be. Spine Tingle got the trail and it was all over 200m out. Providenceprovides had her chance and stuck well for second. Balance $70.70

5.Providfenceprovides  looks ready and the way the track is playing, she has to get the right run and be the one to beat. $40 win at $5 FF and good luck to Ian M who has the multi finishing on her. Worth a  few dollars on the Futures for the Oaks at $31 and $10 still

Race 6

Darci had to be good to win. Butterfield is a horse to follow with a gap to third. as we discussed on Heads Up yesterday. It is a good indicator of next up winner in the right race. Alive in the quaddie. $31 returned for the $10 quinella. Balance $110.70 I may save some for an Australian quaddie which I will post by 5.15 p.m.

Darci La Bella looks ready to win.  But the way the track is playing, I would not be surprised to see Butterfield lead, stack them, then kick and making Darci really work for the win. Butterfield also looks ready to run a race. $10 quinella 3 and 9 around $3.80

Suggested late quaddie with Concert Hall now beatable the way this track is playing. ( Back after the prelims )

$28.80 for 10% ( Balance $89.70 )

R6  3, 9
R7  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 9
R8  1, 2, 3, 5
R9  2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 11

Race 5

Every chance but that inside proved too hot again for Magneto. Balance $118.50

Quattro Quinta looks fitter than he did at Trentham and you can see why the money has come for him. Wolf Gang was a bit unsettled in his prelim so with QQ in front or sitting just off the lead, which he does look better doing as he looks a really good chaser, he does look the winner. We will have a $50 multi with Quattro Quinta ($1.80 )  and Darci la bella ( $1.70 ) in the next ( Sharrock very confident) to return $153

Race 4 2.09 p.m. Tobias ( From the trail )  knocks us over with a good win with Winkle Bay taking too long to get balanced up but watch out over 1400m and more. Vasquez had to work too hard and being worked up before the race added up to a defeat, but a game one.

$200- 31.50 = closing balance of $168.50

Vasquez went down early and looked a bit worked up, so against two very promising horses, Sacred palace and Winkle Bay, I’m happy to just watch this and hope Winkle Bay ( Blinkers on and looks ready ) wins for our quaddie at the better odds.

Vasquez looks the definite leader and the way the track is playing, he looks the obvious one at $2.70 and dropping. Sacred Palace is a promising horses but can do things wrong and maps to be behind others and may find it hard to make up a few lengths on Vasquez. I’ll have a good look at them both in the birdcage and report back.

Update Race 3 The quaddie is still alive- just! As predicted he had to work hard to lead so it was a top effort to hold on from Scotch. But if you were on Braavos, you could be forgiven for losing a few strands of hair after he was held up till too late and looked to have a couple of gears to offer.  

On pace and inside looks to be a good place to be. The main contenders all look ready to go.

Streak Of Power is a nice horse but the two horses on his inside, Braavos ( 3 wide last start) and Arraignment ( trialed up nicely in a strong field) can get out well so he may not lead or have to work hard to get it. Quiz Kid out wide fresh up, if he jumps cleanly, may also have a look for the lead. So they may go very hard early, setting it up for a closer like Tavtattack. Tricky race so no bet – we can just watch 1-2-3-6-9 go round for our quaddie interest.

Update 1.03 p.m. Saved your money on Alhambra Lad. Interesting that Lisa rode him hard out of the gates to try and get on the fence maybe? Was caught wide and gone 400 metres out. Fair start to the suggested quaddie. Back for race 3 by 1.38 p.m.

As mentioned, there are a few things against the $3 favourite Alhambra Lad. On pace and on the rail seems not the worst place to be based on that first race. The speed map shows a few going forward and it is a messy race, so that is why I have suggested the quaddie for a bet below. Monlula is a drifter which is not good- good horse likely to need it.

Update 12.45 p.m.

Race 2

Based on the first race, that inside does look to be an advantage. Tuppence worked to lead midrace and held out Zola Express which looked to have its measure 200 metres out. Alhambra Lad is the $3.10 favourite and maps to get back on the inner off a moderate to even tempo, so is beatable ( also see preview below about why it is too short) . So the early quaddie could be the best way to go if he gets beaten.

Opening balance $200 bet is $31.50 on the early quaddie for 10%

R2   1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 11
R3   1, 2, 3, 6, 9
R4   1, 2, 8
R5   1, 2, 3

 

Update 8.10 a.m.

Good morning,

Some excellent racing at Taranaki and Sydney. I’m staying clear of Wingatui- just have no confidence doing the form there. I’ll be doing the very popular ‘Birdcage Bully’ from Race 2 at Taranaki today. It was one thing the survey we did a couple of weeks ago that subscribers wanted back. That is where I’ll be posting my thoughts on what looks ready to win from the birdcage parade and prelims, plus any significant market moves. Also any track pattern that could emerge. I’ll use a $200 bank to bet with. The first post will be by 1.03 p.m. just before race 2. There may be a Quality Bet during the day if I see good value in good confidence bets. So much can effect a horse’s price and chances throughout the day, that any serious bets need to take into account those evolving factors. For example, if you like a back runner very strongly and a strong front running pattern emerges, you would back off. But if there was a back runners pattern merging, you may put more on! Plus, if a horse is from a strong punting stable, like the Sharrock stable, and it drifts from $3 to $6, you would likely stay clear or have a much smaller bet, or even find the horse or horses that can beat it. It has become a very strong factor when punting and needs to be taken into account if punting seriously.

I’m staying clear of Wingatui. Just have no confidence in the South Island form. New Plymouth have a few shorties that do look all well placed to win but not a lot of value. But could be nice in a couple of multis. The GOAT is very confident with his Kansas City -3 $1.80 bet for Monday, so maybe a multi with a couple into that could make the game even more interesting. No Quality bets so far.

Providenceprovides looks the best value.

Heads Up below with a preview of two races at New Plymouth, the GOATS best sports bet and your chance to win a $20 multi bet.

This week’s winner is Ian M and he has it on race 7 Darci la Bella $1.80 and  Race 8 Providenceprovides $5 to return $180 less any deductions from 11.48 a.m. Friday

Bet of the day Race 6 9.Darci La Bella $1.80 1st $1.70 

Value Bet of the day Race 7 5.Providenceprovides $5.50 FF  2nd $2.00

The GOAT’s best sports bet is here. It is Kansas City -3 $1.80 in the Super Bowl Monday 12.30 p.m.

Sydney – Randwick

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

1.Peltzer is a good horse and ran some top races against top 2yos in fast times last campaign. In his latest trial, he looked a much improved galloper with the way he relaxed and has matured into the ideal 3yo. Drawn wide here but has natural early speed and could slide over 2nd outer and with the favourite, North Pacific being beatable fresh up off an average trial win, he is a nice eachway chance. RP $4, $5 FF

North Pacific at $2.15 is too short. He was ridden out to just win his trial and strikes some smart horses ready to win. Easily beaten 

Race 8 

All Time Legend  good lay at $1.80 would have won last start if he got out in time, but he is too short here at $1.70. Two starts back he led all the way but was a bit one paced and beat a weaker field in a slow speed rating. He is a better horse in behind and from his wide draw here, they will have to go forward and looks the leader. There are some much better horses in this than he held out two starts back so is definitely beatable. 7.Mount Poppa  was a very good 4th fresh up at Flemington ( Best last 600 and held up over 1400m ) and is primed to run a race fresh up. Looks the best value in the race. Maps to land about 5th outer and get the last show at the favourite.

Race 9 7.55 p.m.

6.Blaze A Trail  looked good winning his two races last campaign, the last very strongly in a good speed rating. Fresh up he settled midfield off a slowish tempo and closed off hard late with big powerful strides for second in the best last 200m. The 4th horse, Shaik, has since won well. From the inside draw, James Mac will look to trail Ulysses and from there, with his power and ability, he is going to be hard to keep out. RP $2.50, $3.30 FF

New Plymouth

Race 1

Confidence:2/5

10.Zola Express  last Saturday at Trentham drew wide and snagged back. In the home straight she was held up when winding up strongly and with the idiot of the year ahead of them, Danielle eased down. She would also improve off that being her first run since an unlucky 7th  at Awapuni when held up. 1800m is ideal for her and from the draw, she can settle midfield inner from the good draw, and with better luck, does look a nice eachway chance with Danielle back on board. RP $5, $7.50 FF

Dangers:

9.Gerda  was held up last Saturday but ran home nicely in the fastest last 200m. Drops back to R65 class, gets 2kgs off from a good draw, so should be the main danger.

5.Sacred Command  was cruising last start and won nicely but it was on a slow track, against a weak maiden field. This is a good R65 field and he has drawn awkwardly, so hard to have the $3.40 FF, which makes other value.

Race 2

The speed map shows at least three runners looking to lead and a few looking to get in behind, ensuring an even tempo.

 

Confidence:2/5 ( Kiwianna scratched) in a tricky race.

4.Monlula  is going to win more races and is without doubt the best horse in this race. But fresh up off what was probably an injury, where he maps to be 3 or 4 back inner, means he can get beaten and improve with it for his next start over more ground. RP $4 But any market move on him, either way, will tell us how ready he is.

Dangers:

8.Aquilla Star 1st $6 has won both of her races here and won a trial recently. Drawn ideally.

11.Alhambra Lad beat a weak maiden field in a below average speed rating for the day. This is harder. Plusses are Lisa Allpress and good draw but $3.30 is too short. Easily beaten

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

3.Streak Of Power  won strongly in fast time here last start and if he gets a softish lead, Lisa Allpress will make it hard for them to catch them. RP $3.40, $4.20 FF

Dangers:

9.Tavattack  won well at Trentham and will be improved as well.

1.Braavos  maps to get a good run and drops in class with 2kgs off.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5 

2.Vasquez won impressively at Hastings. He is a nice looking strong 3yo who has the early speed to lead these again and 1300m will suit even better. RP $2.20, $2.80FF

Dangers:

1.Sacred Palace nice horse drawn to get the last run at Vasquez.

7.Golden Eagle is a nice place chance at odds. Should get a good run and almost won on debut. Blinkers on.

8.Winkle Bay  has ability and may be better around a bend.

Race 5

Confidence:3/5

1.Quattro Quinta  showed a real will to beat Wolfgang last start. Wolfgang had a much harder run though so he looks the main danger again. But QQ should get on the pace again with ease and the way the money has come for him, he has improved a good deal from that last win. Beautiful galloper and does look the one again from the better draw. RP $1.90, $1.85 FF

2.Wolfgang  had a tougher run and went down fighting to QQ last start. If he gets the right run, he will test QQ, but he is unlikely to get that.

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5

9.Darci La Bella 1st $1.80  is a very good filly and won well on debut beating a good filly in a nice speed rating. Looks better with a sit and should get a nice trail here and be very hard to beat. RP $1.70, $1.80 FF

Danger:

3.Butterfield 2nd  beat a good horse fresh up at Tauranga and two good winners have come out of it. Drawn to lead again and if left alone, and the inside is an advantage, Darci will need to be at her best to run him down even giving him 2.5kgs.

Race 7 

Confidence: 2/5 and a good race.

5.Providenceprovides  2nd impressed on the eye when winning well at Hastings and the figures only back that up. She ran the fastest of the five 1400m races, including the R65 and R74 races and her sectionals show that more ground will suit. She has a long neck, and looks the ideal filly for 1800m or more, so from the strong Pike stable, where she maps to be in a winning spot, well in front of her main dangers, she does look the hardest to beat. RP $3.70, $5 FF ( She is worth a few dollars at $31 and $10 on the Futures for the Oaks )

Dangers:

9.Sumi  is a good filly with the blinkers going on. Negative is she gets back and will need luck.

1.Lily’s Lady  two strong seconds and with luck, should be in it.

3.Yolo  is a good filly but will get back. If they go hard, she could upset.

Race 8

The speed map shows Camino Rocoso likely to slide over and set an even tempo suiting all runners. Favourite Concert Hall maps to settle behind midfield.

Confidence:3/5

2.Concert Hall  is very well placed here. She gets in on 56kgs, realistically only 1kg above the minimum after winning the Group 1 WFA Zabeel Classic! She does have some early speed so could land closer than mapped if she jumps well. But with Camino Rocoso in the race and a few  drawn out that will go forward, there should be enough tempo up front for her to get over these comfortably. The negative is, it is a tighter track and runners can get held up, so that looks the only negative. So just bad luck looks her biggest danger. RP $1.70, $1.75 FF

Dangers:

3.Camino Rocoso  should be suited by this tighter track and 1800m. If he settle better and the inside is ok, he is the best value bet in the race.

5.Vernanme 1st $6 has the blinkers going on and has the ability to run second.

1.Polzeath, even though he is on a rating of 80 with topweight in the SW & P race, he can still be in it. He only got 6 points when winning the Gr 2 Avondale Cup off a 77 rating, when he should have got around 15, so he should be on around a 90 rating now. Drawn to get a good run.

Race 9

Confidence:1/5

3.Ata Rangi 2nd $1.90   dropped back to R65 class last start and was held up when looking to have enough to be right in it. Drawn 1 here and should get every chance in an open race. RP $5

Dangers:

2.Beavertown Boy  1st $2.90 tri $72.50   nice run last start and with a better run likely over the more suitable 1800m now, will be in it.

11.Wicklow 3rd $2.80  ready to peak now fourth up on a nice weight.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!