Some excellent racing at Taranaki and Sydney. I’m staying clear of Wingatui- just have no confidence doing the form there. I’ll be doing the very popular ‘Birdcage Bully’ from Race 2 at Taranaki today. It was one thing the survey we did a couple of weeks ago that subscribers wanted back. That is where I’ll be posting my thoughts on what looks ready to win from the birdcage parade and prelims, plus any significant market moves. Also any track pattern that could emerge. I’ll use a $200 bank to bet with. The first post will be by 1.03 p.m. just before race 2. There may be a Quality Bet during the day if I see good value in good confidence bets. So much can effect a horse’s price and chances throughout the day, that any serious bets need to take into account those evolving factors. For example, if you like a back runner very strongly and a strong front running pattern emerges, you would back off. But if there was a back runners pattern merging, you may put more on! Plus, if a horse is from a strong punting stable, like the Sharrock stable, and it drifts from $3 to $6, you would likely stay clear or have a much smaller bet, or even find the horse or horses that can beat it. It has become a very strong factor when punting and needs to be taken into account if punting seriously.
There is a nice eachway chance in the first.
10.Zola Express last Saturday at Trentham drew wide and snagged back. In the home straight she was held up when winding up strongly and with the idiot of the year ahead of them, Danielle eased down. She would also improve off that being her first run since an unlucky 7th at Awapuni when held up. 1800m is ideal for her and from the draw, she can settle midfield inner from the good draw, and with better luck, does look a nice eachway chance with Danielle back on board. RP $5, $7.50 FF into $6 now.
9.Gerda was held up last Saturday but ran home nicely in the fastest last 200m. Drops back to R65 class, gets 2kgs off from a good draw, so should be the main danger.
5.Sacred Command was cruising last start and won nicely but it was on a slow track, against a weak maiden field. This is a good R65 field and he has drawn awkwardly, so hard to have the $3.40 FF, which makes other value.
Heads Up below – with a preview of the two main races at New Plymouth and you can win a $20 multi bet, plus much more.
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