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Friday preview below

Update 2.15 p.m. 5.Showbourne and 10.Dauphine both look very well. Recommended bets are 2 units eachway on both on the tote. 3.8 units returned for a 4.2 unit loss. Thought we were home! Ridiculous money came for Melody Roxx. 

Update 11.07 a.m. David has posted some selections for the dogs tonight here

Whanganui Track a Dead 5 from a Dead 6 yesterday afternoon. Rail true.

No value in the first four races.

I’ve spent time going through each runner in race 5 with a table showing the Formpro assessed price compared to the TAB prices. There was good feedback from Wednesday’s one with the rank outsider getting up for a place for us ensuring a nice profit. I’ll post an update with any recommended bets 2 minutes before the start around 2.15 p.m.

Bet of the Day Race 5 5.Showbourne $4.60 FF 2nd $1.90

Value bet of the day Race 8 11.Sasha $5.50 FF 3rd $1.90 

Suggested late quaddie for $36 for 10%

R7   1, 4, 6, 8, 9
R8   1, 10, 11, 12
R9   3, 6, 11
R10   2, 3, 6, 7, 11, 13

Race 5

The speed map shows five runners looking to lead or be on it.

 

Formpro
Odds % to 100% TAB FF % Diff
1 Puntura 9 11.11 4.4 22.73 -4.6
2 Lincoln Hanover 14 7.14 8 12.50 -6
3 Falco Three 7 14.29 5.5 18.18 -1.5
4 Melody Roxx 12 8.33 5 20.00 -7
5 Showbourne 3.5 28.57 4.6 21.74 1.1
6 Swish Az 30 3.33 14 7.14 -16
7 Ledgowan 30 3.33 26 3.85 -4
8 Platinum Dubai 30 3.33 26 3.85 -4
9 Bangles 70 1.43 41 2.44 -29
10 Dauphine 5.5 18.18 8 12.50 2.5
12 Tennessee Rose 100 1.00 34 2.94 -66
Total 100.05 127.86

 

Confidence: 2/5 I’ll post an update 2 minutes before the race with any recommended bets. At this stage Showbourne and Dauphine look the value bets.

5.Showbourne won well 3 wide in the open at Tauherenikau then battle over sprints at her next two starts. So was turned out to mature and fresh up at Trentham, in a stronger r65 field over 1400m, she was 4 back inner going well when they backed off midrace allowing the two leaders to kick and fight it out. She ran on strongly when out in the second fastest last 200m for fourth beating two subsequent winners. This time she has drawn ideally as there should be a good tempo in this and she can sit off them about 5th or 6th and with natural improvement from the top Fraser Auret stable, she can get over these in the last 50 metres with the 2kgs off.

10.Dauphine last start got back and was stuck on the rail on the turn with no where to go. But once she got out into clear air, drove home strongly in 11.59, the second fastest of the race. Maps to get back last but with the good tempo, that will allow her to come hard late.

3.Falco Three fell in to win over 1400m in the slowest of five 1400m races. Won’t get such an easy time up front and is up in class.

1.Puntura got the lead last start after being gifted it and he appeared to like that and won well. But that was against easier company and the time was average. So jumping to R65 grade with topweight of 59kgs, where he has plenty of early speed outside him means he is likely to be 3 back inner based on the speed map and doesn’t look as happy racing like that.

2.Lincoln Hanover won well here over this distance but the speed rating was slow and the form out of it below average. If ridden quiet with the solid tempo, could get into it.

4.Melody Roxx led and was swamped 100m out at Trentham over 1200m. 1340 is a stretch with the good tempo around her so she will need a perfect ride.

8.Platinum Dubai  will go forward and put pressure into the race. Weakened over 1400m last start, so 1340m will suit better but there are others who won’t allow her to get a soft time.

6.Swish Az every chance last start and battled 150m out. More pressure here over more ground so beatable.

Race 7

9.Akela Belle  has been freshened up and the way she won at Awapuni means with 4kgs off, she is well placed to do that again.

1.Leaderboard  is a  good horse and has had two trials to get ready. Flew late fresh up last campaign over 1300m so 1600m looks ideal this time with Opie up.

8.Zouluminous  won her maiden here over 1600m leading all the way. Bit stiff last start after a good win. Drawn well.

4.Quiz Kid  maps to lead here and with a soft one is capable of holding on with 2kgs off. Led all the way

6.Heirloom  won well at Trentham over 1600m in a faster time than the WFA race won by Rock On Wood. Back from 2050m from the ace draw with 3kgs ticks a few boxes.

Race 8

The speed map shows Grand Prospect getting a soft lead and a moderate tempo likely suiting runners in the first six in running.

Confidence: 2/5

11.Sasha last start ran home strongly for second at her first go over ground running the best last 400 and 200m. 500m out she was going well but had to check off heels losing momentum. She will obviously improve off that and peak for this. Bred to win a few and drawn to get the right run and be the one to beat at nice eachway value. RP $4.50

Dangers:

10.Swing The Tide  drops out of harder 3yo races. Last start at New Plymouth drew wide and had to snag back. Got checked 700m out but still found the line strongly over the 1800m running the 2nd fastest L400 and 3rd fastest L200m. May go forward here with the blinkers going on at the right time and take bad luck out of it. Gets 3kgs off and very fit.

12.Finest Wine  did very well last start when 3 wide on the pace and stuck well for fifth. She has always looked like a middle distance would suit. She can be slow away and maps to be 11th inner. First go over ground against a few handy ones who are race fit for a middle distance so the $2.20 is just too short with those negatives against her. Ended up in running as expected and was always beatable from there

1.Wicklow  ran a top 3rd in R65 grade last start. Back to maidens and drawn well.

Race 9

Confidence:2/5

11.LLanacord  1st $3 ran home nicely after being in a pocket 600m out. The step to 2040m looks ideal and the blinkers going on will help. Nicely bred and they will be keen to win to get into the Oaks.

Dangers:

6.Irish Trix good third fresh up over ground and has to be fitter for that.

3.Eddie Wood  is a nice galloper and 2040m suits now. Drawn to get all favours.

 

Race 10

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

11.Rose Of Delgatie 1st $6  top 4th last start at Trentham and gets 2kgs off. Just needs luck from a wide draw.

7.Vulture Street  has run two strong races since winning. Needs a decent tempo and luck as he will get back.

2.Thomas Aquinas  two solid thirds and will be on pace.

6.Vineyard McPhee strong second last start. Will get back so needs luck.

3.Zeroed  bolted in here in maiden company last start. Has looked progressive so could do it again.

13.Hinepara  good run last start and could land in a winning spot.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!