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Saturday 20 February 2021

 

Update 11.56 a.m. ( Apologies no Birdcage Bully today. )

Australian best bets

Bet of the day  Caulfield Race 6 1.Bohemoth $2.90 FF

Value bet of the day Race 9 9.Nonconformist $5.50 FF

Suggested quaddie for $61.60 for 10% Yes $347 returned

R6   1, 7
R7   1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 13, 14
R8   1, 2, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, 15, 16, 18
R9   3, 8, 9, 12

Caulfield

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

1.Bohemoth  is a big brute of a galloper who won easing down fresh up in a good speed rating. Loves it here and looks the obvious one but the negatives are he can get a bit keen and may be 3 back inner here and have trouble working clear in time, so need cover for the quaddie.

7.Probabeel  1st $3.40 will likely snag and if she can get a good track into it, and Bohemoth is having trouble, then she can definitely win. She looked very professional before the start and during the running when winning fresh up and this just could be an outstanding season for her.

Race 7

With queries over the favourite 13.Enthaar and it is open after that. So suggest going wide here. In order:

13-1-9-5-2-7-14

Race 8

Another open leg. Favourite Ancestry beatable fresh up.

In order: 18-7-2-6-10-9-8-15-1-16-12

Race 9

Confident one of these four can win this:  9-12-3-8

 

Update  : 11.05 ( next update by noon)

Vincent, who won the $20 multi on Heads Up has this All Up bet on the tote as I think they will pay more than the FF odds on offer:

Race 1 3.Babylon Berlin win, Race 6 4.Justacanta place, Race 7 7.Milford a place

Ellerslie 

Good morning,

Not a good confidence day with even fields. Babylon Berlin should win but at $1.45 now after No Filter came out is more of a multi maker. Justacanta  looks a nice eachway bet, as does Milford. I’ll post some selections for Australia by noon with a suggested quaddie.

Bet of the day Ellerslie race 1 3.Babylon Berlin $1.70 FF into $1.45 with No Filter being scratched  1st $1.40

Value bet of the day Race 6 4.Justacanta $6.50 FF 1st $9.60!

Race 1

The speed map shows Babylon Berlin leading although she did miss the jump fresh up from a wide draw at Ellerslie but had room to hunt forward to lead. If she does miss it, there doesn’t look to be any other runner to match her speed once she gets going, so should lead and be able to set a moderate tempo suiting runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence:3/5

3.Babylon Berlin does look very well placed here. Dwelt fresh up and had to use petrol to lead, then eased off a bit but still fought very well for third in a fast run race behind a good 3yo. She should be able to lead here, even though she can take a dew strides to get going. There is nothing fast enough early to cross her. So she should be able back off midrace and have to much speed and power for these. RP $1.30, $1.45

Dangers: 

5.Atishu is also a nice horse and ran good 3rd behind Babylon Berlin at Te Rapa off a tougher run. Maps to land 6th outer though and is likely to be too far off her to run her down.

2.Jimmy Five  if he get into the trail, is going well enough to make up the trifecta.

 

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

9.Holyhead 1st $2.40  last start from the wide draw, she got back and was held up on the turn. Once out she ran home very nicely for second in easily the best last 200 metres. Has a nice action and after two runs she will be ready to strike now. RP $2.50, $2.60 FF

Dangers:

10. Our Sassy Cat  good 2nd on debut and looks a nice type.

Race 3

Good race to watch. In order: 3-1-4-2

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

3.Belt Road  1st $9 really hit the well at Trentham and almost got up.  The map says an even tempo which he will need to get over these. RP $5, $7 FF

Dangers:

8.Three Sixty almost got up last start and just needs a good run to be the main danger.

11.Waimoku Falls  lost the pilot early but was unharmed. Good filly drawn well.

13.Aquaoir  is a nice galloper who is going to win more races.

Race 5

The speed map shows no obvious leader, despite the big field. So a moderate tempo is likely once they settle into position .Suiting runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race.

15.Super Gee 2nd $2.20 has run his best races here. With the freshen up and from the good draw, he can land in the first six and on 55.5kgs, looks nicely placed. RP $4.50

Dangers:

5.Pullyoursocksup is a nice horse who got all favours last start and won well. Should be further improved and has early speed to be handy in running.

1.Cha Siu Bao 1st $11  – I like the rider change with Opie replacing the apprentices. He has the best ratings in the field and maybe it takes a top rider to get it out of him.

Race 6

Confidence:2/5

4.Justacanta 1st $9 put in a strong run for second last start here in fast closing sectionals in good time. There looks to be enough speed up front again for him, and it is a smaller field so less horses to get past. RP $5

Dangers:

6.Cavallo Veloce is in career best form and drawn to get an ideal run.

5.Princess Rihanna  was a bit unlucky here last start and should be right in this.

3.Pop Star Princess won well fresh up and if she can lead again, will be hard to run down with the 3kgs off.

 

Race 7

The speed map shows Jason Belltree likely to lead with a few looking to get handy. A moderate tempo is likely.

Confidence: 2/5

7.Milford  is a  strong 3yo who won well here last start at his first start over ground.. Has enough early speed to land in the first half of the field and with natural improvement is a good eachway chance. RP $4.50, $6 FF

Dangers:

1.Rocket Spade  1st $2.30   ran a very good second last start against the older horses giving them plenty of weight. Drops back to his own age group with that fitness builder under his belt, and as long as he doesn’t get back, he should be right in this. Currently $2.10 Ff but should pay more closer to start time.

4.Lord Ardmore  nice horse who ran a good 4th in the 2000 Guineas has gone good races since. Drawn to land in the right spot. Blinkeres go on.

13.Il Affare was unlucky last week when held up and flew late. If she gets back here that may hinder her chances though.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race.

11.Justamaiz  ran home strongly late for third in the Wellington Cup running the best sectionals in all areas. Drawn well and if he can jump cleaner, should land close to the pace or may even take it up and from there, and be a nice eachway chance. RP $8, $14 Ff

Dangers:

1.Sound  won the Group 2 Sandown Classic and ran 2nd in the Group 3 2500m race at Flemington with 59kgs. Tough horse and will need to be to win with 59kgs.

6.Platinum Invador  drawn to do nothing and 2400m is ideal at this stage. Won the City Of Auckland Cup on Jan 1 2020.

2.In A Twinkling will be on pace and that could be an asset. Tough.

Race 9

Confidence: 1/5

3.Frontman  2nd $2 tri $356  will relish the middle distance and with a good ride from Opie, can win this.

15.Tia d’Ior 1st $13   nice looking progressive mare at peak fitness.

1.Fluorobus 3rd $2.20  another strong placing. Drawn to get the perfect run which he needs to win a race.

8.Deel’s Done good win last start and Danielle sticks with him.

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!