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Saturday preview below

Update 6.38 p.m. Fifty Stars looks ready to win. Should get the right run and ticks all the boxes. Was held up. Surprised he didn’t kick up and get 3 back inner but he wasn’t going well enough anyway.

Update 4.23 p.m. Mount Popa looks ready and can be backed with confidence. 10/10 ride on a well trained horse.

Update 3.38 p.m. Missed after getting every chance.

They are winning near the fence and wider out so an even straight. They are also winning off the pace if the tempo is even or better. The speed map below shows a decent tempo and with the small field she will likely be 7th or 8th inner and just needs the gaps after straightening (and should get them if they tick along as predicted)  to get over these. her price has dropped to $2.60 Ff so if you got the $4.50 yesterday you will be pleased. She is too short for a Quality bet now as the value isn’t there. But a multi into Aegon is worth taking.

 

Update 11.54 next update just before the Quality bet in Race 7 at Awapuni for Excelleration

Suggested late quaddie at Flemington:

$22 for 20%

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Update 8.45 a.m. Saturday

The best racing is in Australia today where I have found some good confidence bets. Aegon looks very well placed and does look the best chance all day. Mount Popa is a very good horse very well placed. Fifty Stars has been set for this race perfectly and looks very hard to beat. Excelleration drops back in class to a very winnable race. Just needs the right run which she should get.

No Birdcage Bully today but I will update the Quality bets about 2 minutes before the race.

I’ll also post an update by noon with any Head to heads etc.

Bet of the Day Randwick Race 7 1.Aegon $2.05 FF

Value bet of the Day Flemington Race 8 3.Fifty Stars $4.20 FF

Speed map Special Randwick Race 4 7.Mount Popa $2.20 FF

Sneaky of the Day Wingatui Race 8 5.Jewel Of Patch $9 FF

Saturday early preview ( Next update by 9 a.m. Saturday )

Apologies no Heads Up today. With the earthquakes and what goes with them, it has been a messy day!

Quality bets so far are:

Randwick Race 4 7.Mount Popa $2.70  4.5 units Deductions now apply to yesterday’s price.

Flemington Race 8 3.Fifty Stars $4.20 4.5 units

Awapuni Race 7 1.Excelleration $4.50 FF 3.2 units

Randwick

Race 4 4.25 p.m.

Confidence: 3/5

7.Mount Poppa looks perfectly placed here third up from the inside draw. He just didn’t have the race fitness under his belt to get up last start and just went down. He will get an ideal run and should be too strong in the last 50 metres. RP $1.80, $2.70 Ff ( Re Rated to $1.50 and is at $2.20 FF 4.4 units )

Race 7 6.25 p.m.

Confidence: 4/5

1.Aegon is unbeaten from five starts and and was a dominant winner over 1400m last start on a wet track beating many of his main rivals. The step to 1600m looks ideal and we know he is just as good, probably better, on a Good track. There looks to be an even tempo which will allow him to just slot in one off and get every chance to get over them after they get over the rise in the straight.$1.80, $2.25

Flemington

Race 8 6.45 p.m.

Confidence: 3/5

3.Fifty Stars won this race last year after a strong win in the Blamey Stakes. This time, even though he ran second in the Blamey, it was an outstanding run to maintain a big finish well out and went down fighting in a very good speed rating and closing sectionals. He is ready to repeat last years win. Maps to be around midfield or a little closer and with the even tempo likely, he has such a good will to win, once he sniffs fresh air, he will charge at them and be very hard to keep out third up. RP $2.80, $4.20 FF  $2.80, $4.20 FF

Awapuni

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5

4.I Wish I Win has looked very good in both of his trial wins. The last one showed he really had improved as he idled up to them and could have won by a much bigger margin. Drawn to get an ideal run and his main dangers just don’t look as good. Bred to win many races and this should be the first of them. Action says a Dead to Slow track will be fine if any rain comes.RP $1.80, $2.20 FF

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

11.Hydro Darci looked very good winning her last trial settling fourth and ran by them without being touched by the whip when others were urged along. Lisa Allpress takes the ride and should prove hard to beat on debut. RP $4

Dangers:

2.Dawn County on debut was slow away and did very well to almost win on debut. The query is dropping back to 1200m and drawing near the inside. She did begin better in her trial though so could land closer.

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5

5.Champagne Sunday looks suited to 1550m now after a good run last start. Drawn to get the ideal run. RP $5, $6 FF

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

8.Makadoon strong third fresh up against race winners then battled ok second up. The step to 1550m look ideal and drawn to get all favours. RP $4, $4.20 FF

Race 5

Confidence:2/5

9.Ezdara ran a very good third against race winners two starts back beating Llanacord who won the Lowland Stakes on Wednesday. Hung right handed last start. The bit has been changed also. So against a weaker field, looks a solid chance. RP $3.20, $4

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

2.Lava Rock  will have improved nicely off that fourth fresh up and looks like more ground will suit. Drawn to get a good run with 2kgs off and is an eachway chance. RP $5

Dangers:

5.Kusada got knocked around a bit early and just lost interest. Better than that.

6.Commotion  ran on nicely over 1600m last start and more ground will suit.

10.Arancia  ran a 3.7L fifth to Amarelinha at Ellerslie so if she can find that form, can win this.

Race 7

The speed map shows at least an even tempo and probably faster suiting off pace runenrs.

Confidence: 3/5

1.Excelleration was unlucky last start in a stronger field when held up and once out hit the line strongly in good sectionals. In this she looks very well placed dropping back to a weaker R74 field with 4kgs off and more significantly, gets back to 1400m which is ideal for her/ Any rain will be no bother. The negative is she will get back on the inner and need a decent tempo but the speed map says there should be at least an even tempo which will allow her to get out and with only 7 runners in front of her and with a decent run through them, should be too good. RP 2.80, $4.50 FF

Race 8

Confidence: 3/5

2.Vent  ran on well fresh up and is a nice mare who was just beaten by the top ,mare Concert Hall at Trentham. Just needs to produce that kind of form to win this and gets in on a winning weight from a good draw. RP $2.30, $2.60FF

Dangers:

3.Aotea Lad better run last start and gets 3kgs off.

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

2.Mandalorian looked to be travelling like a winner 500m out and was beaten by a nice horse. 1400m will suit better third up and just needs a decent run from the wide draw. RP $2.80, $3.50 FF

Dangers:

3.Showbourne looked the winner last start but was nailed late. Peaking third up now and gets 2kgs off.

Wingatui

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

5.Jewel Of Patch is getting back to her best form. She showed she could win a few races in the north with some above average sectionals and her last run she ran the best clsoing sectionals by far. So with the right run, she could swamp these late. RP $6, $9 Ff ( in from $12 )

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!