Saturday preview 13 March below

Update 11.32 a.m.

Ellerslie suggested late quaddie for $19.20 for 10% Yes $54 returned

R7   6, 7, 8

R8   2, 3, 6, 10

R9    2, 4, 5, 8

R10    1, 5, 6, 16

Moonee Valley late quaddie $21.60 for 10%

R6   1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 9, 12, 14, 17

R7   2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10

R8   11

R9   4, 5, 9, 10

Update 8.30 a.m.

A good day of racing here and in Oz. Sword Of State and Levante should both win. An update will be posted by noon. Belt Road is rock hard fit and I like the way he gives it 100% when asked and is well placed in that field. Ocean Billy is one tough bugger and drawn to get every chance. Tia d’Or  has the right draw to get a winning run again.

Bet of the day Ellerslie race 6 2.Sword Of State $1.75 Ff 1st $1.60

Value bet Of The Day Ellerslie race 10 1.Belt Road $5.50 FF 3rd $2.50

Sneaky of the day Ellerslie Race 9 5.Ocean Billy $10 FF 1st $10.90 and $3.60 

Speed map Special Ellerslie race 3 12.Tia d’Or $4.20 FF Missed after getting every chance.

No Quality bets so far.

The GOAT has his best sports bet all weekend on the Blues on Sunday at 3.35 p.m. -7.5 $1.87  3 units

Steve, who won Heads Up has an all up $20 bet on the tote with  Levante ( win) , Sword Of State ( win) , into Ocean Billy for a place. Yes $138 returned

Ellerslie

Best multi is Levante into Sword Of State $10 returns $22.70

Race 1

Confidence: 5/5

1.Levante is simply at least two classes better than these and gets in on 58kgs, just 2kgs above the minimum. She trialed very well when getting out of the gates well. It is a small field and she maps to be 7th outer and will have no excuses not to win and win well. RP $1.10, $1.30 FF

Race 2

Confidence: 1/5

10.Rapid Falls  looks like she will relish a middle distance now. She ran a top race two back over 1600m and from the good draw will get every chance. RP $4.80, $5.50 FF

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

12.Tia d’Or  won really well here last start beating Frontman who franked it when running a close third in the Derby. Drawn to get every chance and is a strong mare who can go back to back. RP $4, $4.20 Ff

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

9.Ripped  finally gets back to 1400m which he is better suited to. The speed map shows plenty of early speed an at least an even tempo which will suit him nicely. RP  $4.20, $5 FF

Race 5

Confidence:1/5 in an open race

2.Keats  is a nice horse who worked early last start and stuck well for third. Drawn wide here and may snag and come at them late. RP $5.00, $6.50 FF

Dangers:

12.Lilhoovesgotmoves  had to be good to win last start and the sectionals showed that. If they go hard here, which is likely, could swamp them.

Race 6

Confidence: 4/5

2.Sword Of State  bolted in last start in a very good time and splits compared to Bonny Lass. He is a very good galloper who should get every chance sitting on Bonny Lass’s backside and he is a better chaser than leader so it is very hard to see him being beaten in this. RP $1.40, $1.75 FF

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

6.Melody Belle  just didn’t have things go her way at Te Rapa. She is a top class mare who has won in Australia. 2000m is her ideal distance and I can see her beating Avantage in the last 100 metres. RP $2.30

Dangers:

7.Avantage  is the obvious danger but has had some hard racing and steps to 2000m. She won this last year in a sit sprint and was beaten by Belle in the Livamol Classic by 2.8 lengths

8.Concert Hall  ran on nicely last start and she won the Zabeel Classic  here on Boxing day.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

2.Hypnos  closed off in very good sectionals last start and is ready to win again. There should be a good tempo in this which will give him every chance. RP $4.00

Dangers:

3.Justacanta  won well here two back and out in a top run last start after missing the start. 1400m suits.

10.Pierina is a  good mare and with a freshener and good trial win she is ready to strike again.

6.Packing Rockstar has got the ‘Gunna’ tag and is likely to place again.

Race 9

Confidence:2/5

5.Ocean Billy  won the Waikato Cup over 2400m after being 8th 3 wide and in the open, then worked to lead 900m out and still kept going to win beating the hotty Savvy Yong Blonc who won the City Of Auckland cup next up. The time for his win of 2.26.89 was excellent. Then in his first run since, he was caught wide in the open, worked to lead 800m out and stuck well for 6th only 1.6L from the winner. He is a very tough horse and drawn to get a good run near the pace and looks a good eachway chance. RP $6, $10 FF

Dangers:

2.Sound  will be spot on for this after a strong second here last start. Negative is the wide draw but with a good run should be in this.

4.Platinum Invador  ready to peak for this and ran third in this last year.

8.Star Tsar  big strong fella who ran a top third last start.

14.Daytona Red ready to see out a strong 3200m after finding the line hard in his last two starts here.

Race 10

Confidence:2/5

1. Belt Road won really well here last start and just puts his head down and gives it his best. gets in well after the 2kg apprentice allowance and hard to beat. RP $4.20, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

5.Force Of Will  is a very good filly. Will need this but with a good run should be right in it.

6.Ever So Easy  is a nice galloper and drawn to get every chance.

16.Joy Alone  ran a strong 3rd here last start and just needs a decent tempo to be right in it.

 

Trentham

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

3.King Farouk  has been rating strongly in better fields and with an even tempo likely, should get his chance to get over these. RP $5

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

2.Cavallo Veloce  battled in a stronger field right handed last start. Back here and against a weaker field, he will be harder to beat. RP $4.00

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

3.Nest Egg  looked good charging for 4th on debut and battled next up. But with a freshen up and based on his last trial where he settled 3 back inner and came home full of running when others were being scrubbed, shows he has learnt a lot from those two runs. Should get a better run than the favourite and be hard to beat. RP $4.20

Dangers:

7.Hilliby  won strongly in very good sectionals last start and from the wide draw, just needs a decent run to be the one to beat again.

2.Belardo Boy  ran on well wide out for fourth on debut and didn’t seem happy on the heavy ground. Placed in a recent jumpout and will hitting the line hard.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

7.Sovereign Express  has hit the line strongly in both of her runs this campaign. Ran some solid placings last campaign and has come back looking stronger. Big track will suit her and is a nice eachway chance. RP $4.50, $6 FF

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

7.Credit Manager was just given the wrong instructions last start when she snagged back and with the predicted moderate tempo he just couldn’t catch them. He once again flew late in the best sectionals all day. He jumps in class for this but drops to a very light weight of 51kgs after the allowance. The Mitigator should lead and will try and dictate which is a negative but with the small field and bigger track, he can repeat his win here in January 2020 over 1400m. RP $3.70, $4 FF

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

10.Uareastar  is a good horse and will be ready to win fresh up. Early money indicates he is set to win. RP $3.20, $3.50 in from $5

Dangers:

8.Can I Get An Amen drawn to get a good run and looks the main danger.

6.Kinshasa  needed that fresh up run and will be fitter for this. Good horse.

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5

5.Cage Phyta  was too good last start and looks much stronger now. Drawn to get every chance. RP $4.50

Dangers:

1.That’s Incranibull very good 4th at Te rapa off a moderate tempo. This is easier.

7.Mondorani  ready to strike after two runs and gets 3kgs off.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

2.Den Bosch  has developed into a strong looking 4yo and is ready for 2100m now after two good runs. Gets 3kgs off and with a good run is the one to beat. RP $4

Dangers:

10.Tavira  has been finding the line strongly and just needs a good run to be right in this.

5.Take That  did very well to win last start off a tough run.

Moonee Valley

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

11.Probabeel has come back looking the full deal. She struts her stuff before the race, relaxes well and has matured into a powerful galloper. She can slot in 3 wide with cover here and with the inside likely to be off, she will be in exactly the right place to get over these late. RP 3.50, $4 FF