Update 11.50 a.m.
Lays of the day
Caulfield race 6 1.Liguero $1.75 FF
6.Through Irish Eyes built to a very strong win last start coming off a solid tempo and hit the front 200m out and was strong through the line in the best speed rating of the day. Ideal breeding for 2400m being by Tavistock out of a Zabeel mare. Should land around 5th or 6th outer behind a moderate tempo and get every chance. RP $3.00, $3.90 FF 2nd after getting held up on the turn.
1.Liquero good strong win last start in a good speed rating. Has a wet track action so on a good track with 59kgs may not be as suited so is beatable and no $1.75 chance.
Suggested late quaddie at Caulfield for $27.50 for 10%
R7 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
R8 2, 5, 6, 7, 8
R9 2, 5, 7, 9, 11
Head to Heads
$10 multi returns $28.60
Race 1 Lilhoovesgotmoves $1.85 to beat yes Mouton who has drawn wide and with plenty of speed inside him is going to do plenty of work and be looking for the air pump 100 metres out making Lilhoovesgotmoves a good chance to run past him.
Siracusa $1.55 to beat Travelling Light – on a Dead 6 or slower track definitely advantage Siracusa who beat Travelling Light last start.
Update 8.30 a.m.
With the rain heading towards the track here it does look like it will get some rain but how much and what effect it will have on the track is in the lap of the rain gods. I have a couple sorted out for Australia which I’ll post in the update after scratchings and conditions are known.
Aaron P, who won the Heads Up multi has $20 on Lilhoovesgotmoves for a place at $3.10 FF into Irish Girl $3 FF for a win to return $186 less any deductions if there are late scratchings.
Bet of the Day Te Aroha Race 6 7.Irish Girl $3 FF
Value bet of the Day Te Aroha Race 1 12.Lilhoovesgotmoves $9.50 FF 1st $11
Speed Map Special Race 5 7.Cassio $6 FF
The GOAT’s best sports bet is the Crusaders -9.5 $1.87 3 units
I’ll post an update by noon with any other bets.
Saturday ( Next update by 9 a.m. Saturday ) Pass on Riccarton with the very open fields.
The rain radar can be seen here and the blue blob is forecast to hit around noon which is just bad timing. But if it
Heads Up can be seen below with a preview of the big race at Te Aroha, a chance to win a free $20 multi and much more
The GOAT’s best bet is the Crusaders -9.5 $1.87 3 units
The track is currently a Dead 5 but rain is forecast for Saturday morning and getting heavier in the afternoon. So wide draws will be needed to for at least the later races.
The speed map shows plenty of early speed from eight runners ensuring a solid tempo and should set up for a runner getting a cosy run or off the pace.
12.Lilhoovesgotmoves as the speed map shows, should get a decent tempo up front to suit her get back and power home style of racing. She will likely be near last on the inner but has shown enough early speed to land midfield with her best jump. She powered home to win from well back on a tighter Te Aroha track and her closing sectionals since then have been above average for the day. RP $6, $9.50 FF 1st $11
8.Illumination ran a good third to Brando and the Irishman with Tokorangi 5th at Ellerslie. Trialed very well and drawn to get all favours but with plenty of pressure outside her, she will have to use petrol up to hold a good spot and could be vulnerable late by a closer.
3.Bounty ran a game second here fresh up behind packing Noblesse who franked that strongly with a win next up at Awapuni last weekend. He has won on a Slow track and placed on a heavy track on debut. Drawn to get on the pace comfortably and be right in it, regardless of the weather.
11.Highlighter two good runs and fitter now. Getting first use of the track will help as she wouldn’t want it slow to heavy.
The speed map shows Anduin and Rose ‘N’ Power going forward an an even tempo likely suiting all runners.
3.Side By Side 1st $6.50 burst through with a very good turn of foot to win last start. She is best ridden with the last go at them and from the good draw should land in the trail or 3 back inner and get every chance from there. her action says a slow or better track should be ok. RP $2.80
6.Rose ‘N’ Power led and was run down late for second and third was Bonita Aurelia who won well yesterday. The step to 1400m should suit and may get an uncontested lead.
10.Superdonna 1st $7
She looked good winning her last trial when settling fifth, came wide on the turn and ran by Fransesca, who has run second on a race day and third was No Limits who won impressively at Whanganui on Thursday. The time of the heat of 55.04, was the fastest of the twelve heats as well. So she ticks a few boxes. With rain forecast, the wide draw may be a plus if they are looking to get wide by this race. Nice looking galloper who lets set to fire on debut. RP $4.00, $5.50 FF
5.Corretto has looked very good in his last two trial wins. Drawn out which could be a plus depending on the rain.
11.Camarosa was a bit weak last campaign and should be stronger now. Inside draw could be a negative depending on the track conditions.
1.Alpha Charlie good races last campaign. Looks capable of winning at least a maiden.
Confidence: 2/5 it depends on what the track conditions are and where they are coming to win earlier races.
2. All Black Bourbon ran a top 4th last start at Trentham in a stronger field. He won his debut on a heavy track with an ideal wet track action. Drawn wide here which will be ideal if they are swinging wide on the turn to get to the better ground. RP $4
10.Contribute – Although the time wasn’t great when she won at Tauranga last start, she was a dominant winner and all you can do is beat what is front of you. The step to 1600m looks good and her chances probably depends on the weather and how the track plays.
1.Oso Savvy strong second at Trentham and won well right handed before that. Good galloper right in this.
6.Feelin’ Fancy won very well here and strong second last start on a slow track. Wide draw may be a plus.
Confidence:2/5 in a tricky race
7.Cassio should be able to lead with Iskander content to sit off him as he has done the last two times they have met. Solid third last start over 1600m and will relish any rain more than most in this field. gets 3kgs off and will prove hard to catch regardless of conditions or bias. RP $4, $6
10.Kiwianna if the track is a a true Dead would be the on top selection as she is ready to win but slow and heavy tracks have tripped her up before.
7.Irish Girl is a good mare as indicated by her strong second to Aimee’s Jewel in the Canterbury Breeders Stakes. Won’t mind a wet track and looked in need of her fresh up run. Wide draw could be a plus. RP $2.70, $3 FF
1.Pop Star Princess won well last start- 1400m on a slow or worse track will make it tougher for her though.
9.Cherry Lane will come into it on a slow to heavy track. he accepted for the Group 1 which could indicate she has improved a bit from that fresh up run.
The speed map shows Familia travelling light and Avantage going forward. They are likely to be swinging wide on the turn if the forecast rain has come so it will suit closers out wide.
Confidence: 2/5 – the amount of rain they get and how the track is playing will be a strong influence as to how this is run and what wins.
5.Siracusa handles wet ground the best of any of these. She would have won at Tauranga last start with a clear run and has come back looking very strong and in for a great season. She is third up here and fitter and drawn wide which will be a plus by this time of day if the forecast rain arrives. RP $7, $10 and $2.20 FF. Very good place bet if the track is a slow or worse one.
2.Levante ruined her chances at Te Rapa when stuck in the gates for too long and walked out. But since then she has jumped much better and her win last start showed she is back on track. Drawn wide which is good as if the forecast rain comes, the outside is going to be the place to be. She bolted in at Matamata on a 1.26.5 for 1400m track ( 1.13.1 for 1200m) she can handle better than most.
1.Avantage is the obvious one to beat but any rain only swings it in favour of Levante and Siracusa as they will be tracking her to the turn and will look to get out wider into the faster lanes.
3.Coventina Bay won’t mind any rain but 1600m is her limit if it is truly run against the top two runners. She was flat out winning last start over 1600m over Jessiegee who is a few lengths below these.
Confidence: 1/5 and does depend on how the track is playing.
2.Thunder ran a strong second here fresh up on a 1.18 track then won on a 1.15 track here. He got better and better last campaign so if Opie can get him to the right part of the track, he looks the one to beat. RP $2.50, $2.30 FF
12.Speechmaker will relish a wetter track and tough run last start.
6.Limentis good run fresh up and slow track will suit.