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Sunday preview below

Pukekohe

Bet of the Day Race 7 2.Notorius $2.10 Ff 1st $1.80 

Value bet of the Day Race 6 4.Initiative $4.20 FF 3rd

Speed Map Special Race 2 2.Rising Renown $7 FF 3rd $1.60

Race 1

The speed map shows Lowry, with the blinkers going on, likely to lead with Granados sitting outside him.

Confidence: 2/5

2.Florentia  last campaign was posted 3 wide in the open over 1600m at Riccarton and was just beaten. Relaxed well last start and drove hard late to win. Action says she should handle a slow track. Drawn to get a nice sit in behind the two leaders and get every chance. RP $3.60, $5 FF

Dangers:

1.Granados won comfortably here last start but got all favours in front. This is harder and he is giving weight to a fit, in form filly, Florentia.

3.Lowry  was taken on in front on a slow track last start and fought hard for second. Blinkers go on and likely to lead with those going on. 1st $8.60

6.Valcaleza  has a dry track action and plugged on her only start on a slow track.

Race 2

The speed map shows three runners likely to want to lead or be on it. An even tempo likely

Confidence: 2/5

2.Rising Renown has just had things go wrong or been unlucky since a top third at Ellerslie behind Star Tsar and Vedo Rosso over 2400m. Last start was planted 3 wide on a solidly run nrace and tired. Drawn ideally here and has won on a heavy track, so should get every chance. Rates on top in the Formpro Ratings after weight adjustments. RP $5, $7 FF

Dangers:

4.Fast Willie  is looking for more ground. Caught out in a sit sprint last start over 1600m and looks like he needs a middle distance now. But likely to get back and being his first run over ground on a slow track, means $4 is too short.

6.Isola Sacra won strongly here two starts back and solid placing last start. 1st $4

Race 3

Confidence:2/5

10.Lot Of Zees is bred to handle a heavy track and has the right action for it too. She closed off strongly for third here two starts back and battled ok last start for a fourth. The heavy track swings things in her favour now and looks a nice eachway chance. RP $6, $11

9.Khan Hunter two strong runs in better maidens and the step to 2100m with Opie on ticks a couple of big boxes.

11.Thalassa  solid tired last start and 2100m looks ideal for her. 1st $4

2.Glen Frey  very good third off a tough trip last start. Drawn to get a good run this time and 2100m will suit.

Race 4

The speed  map shows Willy Away setting a moderate tempo.

Confidence: 2/5

4.Willy Away  has won here on a heavy track. Strong second here fresh up and trailed a good tempo second up and tired. Wet track suits and peaking third up now. May try and lead all the way. RP $4

Dangers:

11.Letz’av Bubbles  will relish a heavy track.

5,Barbara  will also relish a heavy track more than most. 1st $9.50 

7.Lampus just got up against a weak maiden field in the slowest of the five 1200m races.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

11.Francesca  ran second to Superdonna who was promoted to first yesterday and 3rd was No Limits, who won well on Thursday. Good second at Tauranga on a heavy track. Looks stronger now. if inside is ok, looks the one. RP $2.40  1st $2.30 

Dangers:

5.Ironic  looks the main danger after two solid thirds and is very fit now.

7.Geri  has solid form on heavy tracks and could place at good odds.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

4.Initiative  in her last three starts on heavy tracks has won all of them. After two runs back she will be fitter and ran on nicely late at Tauranga last start. Gets 2kgs off main danger Marroni, so she ticks a few strong boxes. RP $3.20, $4.20 FF

Dangers:

2.Marroni  good 4th fresh up. His wins have come on a Dead 4 and Good 3 track so with 60.5kgs, it makes $2.10 FF look a bit short.

11.Sonofabutcher  won here on a very heavy track. two good runs after a break and looks right in it on 52kgs. 1st $2.40 

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

2.Notorious  looked very good charging home for third and the first and 4th horses have run strongly since. Bred to handle a wet track and 1600m looks ideal. RP $2.00, $2.10 FF 1st $1.80

Danger:

1.Capaldi bit unlucky fresh up when out late and flew for second. Steps 400m to 1600m which is hard to do.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!