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Friday preview below

Matamata

Good morning,

A couple of well placed bets below and the late quaddie looks worth a bet also. An early preview of Saturday posted by noon.

Apologies, no Heads Up today. Back next Friday.

 

Bet of the Day Race 3 6.Felicienne $2.40 FF Missed

Value bet of the Day Race 1 6.Prosperous $9 FF 4th

Suggested late quaddie for $18 for 10% Yes Paid $696

R5   1, 2, 3
R6   4, 5, 6, 8, 11
R7   1, 2, 6
R8   2, 4, 6, 10

Race 1

Confidence:2/5

6.Prosperous  would have gone very close with a clear run last stat Tauranga. She is peaking third up now and has won on a heavy track. 1600m looks ideal as well. RP $6, $9 FF

Dangers:

1.All Black Bourbon  top run at Trentham in a stronger field. Tends to get back though and will be on the inner so will need luck.

Race 2

Confidence: 0.01/5 Good race to watch.

Dangers:

Having a bet in it.

Race 3

Confidence:3/5

6.Felicienne   ran a game second fresh up ( daylight to third) and looked in need of the run. The winner lay out and made it harder for her to win and decided not to protest although I have seen protests lodged for lesser interference. The step to 1400m looks ideal now and with a good ride should win well. Nice filly who relaxes well and 1400m will suit now. Slow to heavy track ok. RP $2.20, $2.40 FF

Race 4

Confidence:2/5

3.Corrine  did very well last start when posted 3 wide in the open and kept her head down and went to the line strongly with an ideal wet track action. Game filly and drawn to get a decent run this time so will get every chance to challenge early in the straight and see how tough the rest are. RP $3.50

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

3.Legit  improved nicely to run third last start over 1200m behind a nice horse in Twitch. Fitter now and a wet track should be ok.

Dangers:

2.Paradigm Shift  1st $9 looked good finishing strongly for second in his trial with a good wet track action.

1.Weowna Tiger  back to 1200m with a good run from a wide draw, would see him right in this. Blinkers go on.

Race 6

Confidence:1/5 in an open race

5.Fonteyn 1st $4  was just too good last start here on a slow track. Very fit and right in it.

Dangers:

6.Locomotion got a well deserved win last start and is very fit.

11.Sweet Molly Malone was doing her best late fresh up. Drawn better here and won’t mind a wet track and strikes a weak R65 field. Query is she does seem better right handed as she lay out at her only left j=hand start at Rotorua and proved an awkward ride.

4.El Fiesta Girl  won well here last start and a wet track will suit her more than some.

8.El Nymph  won strongly here on a similar surface over 1600m and after two runs back with the blinkers coming off and from a good draw, she can upset.

Race 7

Confidence:2/5

6.Limentis  ran on nicely fresh up in an on pace race and ran a strong second here, second up, last campaign on a Heavy 10 track and won third up over 1400m here on a Slow 8. Wide draw may be a plus by this time of day. RP $3.60, $4.20 FF

Dangers:

1.Thunder 1st $3  is a nice horse and with 3kgs off, he can test the favourite.

2.Lily Thunder  will relish a slow to heavy track. Drawn to get a good run if the inside is still ok.

Race 8

Confidence:1/5

6.Because  had no luck last start and drawn to get a good run this time. Gets in on a nice weight and looks the best eachway chance in the field. RP $5

Dangers:

4.Peerless Warrior close fifth here in a stronger R65 three starts back and gets in on a nice weight.

10.Zouluminous racing well and recent trial will have topped her off nicely for this.

2.Leaderboard 1st $2.60  steps up in distance which will suit but hard to catch.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!