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Saturday preview below

A good day considering it was looking to be ‘Advantage bookies’. Four winners out of the six main bets for the day.

Update Saturday morning.

Te Rapa has come up a Slow 8 which makes it annoying but we can’t do much about that. With the work done on the track over the last few weeks we don’t know how it is going to race. It may favour on pace and near the rail as it usually does but it may chop up much quicker near there and suit runners coming to the centre. So if having a decent go, I’d suggest waiting and seeing how it plays.

Bet of the Day Hastings Race 4 3.Dawn Parade $2.40 FF Missed after being caught  3 wide on the pace

Value bet of the Day Te Rapa Race 1 5.She’s A Man Eater $4.20 FF 1st $4 

Speed Map Special Te Rapa Race 4 6.Babylon Berlin $1.95 FF 1st $2.10 

Other good bets:

Hastings Race 3 1.Rangi Toa $1.65 1st $1.60 

Te RapaRace 6 8.Our Fine Wine $6.50 Ff Missed

Only other 3/5 confidence bet Hastings race 8 12.Secret Amour $3.60  1st $2.30

 

The early preview of Saturday is below. Next update by 9 a.m. Saturday.

The two Tony Pike runners look very well placed to win again at Hastings

Hastings race 3 1.Rangi Toa $1.65 and Race 4 3.Dawn Parade $2.40 FF

The best value so far are:

Te Rapa race 1 5.She’s A Maneater at $4.80 FF, Rated at $3.80

Te Rapa race 6 8.Our Fine Wine $8.50 FF, rated at $5

The speed map special looks to be Babylon Berlin at $2.40 FF Race 4 at Te Rapa

Te Rapa

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5

5.She’s A Maneater looked really good winning at Pukekohe then arn a top third last start at Ellerslie at her first go over ground when wide and loomed 300m out and ran a game third. Must be improved with that and from the good draw. Leith Innes will be able to settle her where she is comfortable and against an average R65 Saturday field, she looks the one. Her action suggests she will handle a slow track ok. RP $3.20, $4.20 FF

Dangers:

4.Honesty ran a strong second last start beating She’s A Maneater but had a much better trip.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

3.Paisley Park maps to get every chance behind an even tempo. He got a similar run two starts back and won very well. A slow to Dead track is ideal and he looks a good eachway chance. RP $5, $6 FF

Dangers:

2.Beauty Star  has come very well this campaign and fourth up from the inside draw, has to be right in this.

Race 3

Confidence:2/5

2.Dragon Biscuit  was ridden in front last start and relished it. if he can begin nicely he can lead or get 2nd outer and from there be the one to beat again. RP $4.00, $4.50 FF

Dangers:

4.Doubtful Sound  looks ready to fire on debut based on his strong trial win. Should get an ideal run.

Race 4

The speed map shows Babylon berlin Likely to lead with Embers trailing and Vasquez second outer. Moderate to even tempo likely.

Confidence: 3/5

6.Babylon Berlin  has been racing very well and was run down late giving 3kgs to the winner in a very good speed rating. Drawn to lead here from the good draw and Vasquez 2nd outer. If they can control the race from there, she does look well placed to lead all the way being much better off at the weights against a weaker field. Rates well clear off these after weight adjustments in the Formpro Ratings.  RP $2.30, $2.50 FF

Dangers:

10.Embers could end up in a nice trailing position and be a good quinella chance from there. In her recent trial win she eased back inner, relaxed well and won well. Nice quinella chance.

Race 5

The speed map shows plenty of early speed setting it up for a closer.

Confidence: 2/5

8.Lavaglo  fresh up last campaign ran a strong closing third over 1200m on a 1.16 for 1200m track which was too wet for her. Then second up almost beat Manrico over 1300m here. In her recent trial settled last with the shadow roll on, and ran home strongly late. The 1200m may be a bit short for her but with so much pace in the race, it could really set up for her strong finish. RP $5, $7 FF

Dangers:

11.Appellant   won well at Ellerslie over 1200m in a good speed rating. Ran on very nicely in a recent trial for third and is likely to snag and charge.

Race 6

The speed map shows Our Fine Wine leading with All Paid Up 2nd outer and Shezdelicious trailing. A moderate to even tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

8.Our Fine Wine has won both of his races here on slow tracks. Game second fresh up and got taken wide last start at Ellerslie by a green runner. Drawn to lead here and should be hard to run down withn the 3kgs off as she should be able to lead this time. RP $5, $8.50 FF

Dangers:

1.All Paid Up should land 2nd outer and is racing very well, so can fight it out.

4.The Mighty Spar  won with a bit inn hand last start in very good closing sectionals. But this is a good R65 field and he is going to get back off a tempo that will likely suit on pace runners, so prefer to see how he goes today at the 43.80 ff price

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5 – the amount of rain they get and how the track is playing will be a strong influence as to how this is run and what wins. Update Saturday morning– definitely a race where you want to wait till close to the start before having a bet.

2.Levante ruined her chances at Te Rapa when stuck in the gates for too long and walked out. But since then she has jumped much better and her win last start showed she is back on track. Drawn wide which means she should be loaded in last and not be standing in the gates for any length of time. She maps to settle last but in the eight horse field she will be close enough to work her way into it and give Avantage a real fright 200m out. RP $3.20, $3.80 Ff

Dangers:

1.Avantage won very well here three starts back and will be on pace. The tempo will determine her chances but Levante would have beaten her in the Railway with a clear run, so overe 1600m, which looks the ideal distance for Levante, so I just couldn’t back her at $1.70

5.Siracusa handles a wet track very well so if the track gets to a Slow 8 or worse, is a good place chance.

3.Coventina Bay won’t mind any rain but 1600m is her limit if it is truly run against the top two runners. She was flat out winning last start over 1600m over Jessiegee who is a few lengths below these.

Race 8

Confidence:2/5

16.Irish Girl  strong second fresh up and 1400m suits better. Should be able to slide up 2nd outer on a moderate tempo and with the light weight, be a decent eachway chance. RP $5

Dangers:

2.Two Illicit  is the class horse of the field. No trial form but drawn to get a good run and looks a chance despite the weight. $2.60 is a bit short though.

Race 9

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

1.Aotea Lad  won well last start and gets 3kgs off. If inside is ok, can win. RP $5

Dangers:

5.Marroni  ran an improver’s 4th fresh up. Drawn wide but if inside is off, can win.

14.Easy M’Lady  good win last start and drawn to get all favours and if inside is ok, is a chance.

16.Our Modena  drawn to be in a winning position and a nicely weighted.

Hastings

Tricky day here with open fields but a couple of standouts from the Pike stable earlier in the day look very well placed.

Races 1 and 2 are very open and there is no value so pass on them

Race 3

Confidence:3/5

1.Rangi Toa  was confidently expected to win on debut and had every excuse to get beaten when caught 3 wide on the pace and was still too good. Up to 1300m means just pilot error  can see him beaten against this lot. RP $1.50, $1.65

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

3.Dawn Parade He is a good horse and showed that when running second to Amarelinha at Ellerslie and he wasn’t comfortable right handed. Trialed up with an excellent finish from off the pace. Drawn to land in behind the leaders and get every chance to power over these. RP $2.$2.40 FF

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race so pass

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

3.Sherwood Forest has had his two warm up runs for this with two good efforts. The 2200m suits this very good Derby winner ideally now. Maps to get an ideal run and looks hard to beat. RP $3, $4 FF

Race 8

Confidence: 3/5

12.Secret Armour  won decisively although a bit greenly late at tauranga. Good galloper scratched from a wet track on Friday for the better surface here. Drawn to ge the ideal run and 1400m suits now. RP $3.00, $3.60 FF

Dangers:

14.Lilhoovesgotmoves won very well last week getting a perfect run. Up in class here and maps to get back and have to come around runners so it will be harder for her to win. The 1400m may suit better.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!