Best result was Demonetization who won very well. Manrico, Atishu and Beauden were other winners but weren’t too hard to find. Tony Be somehow, from the outside barrier, ended up on the inside, and was forced to make his run in the slower inner ground, was held up and did well to get fifth.
A couple of false favourites mentioned did get beaten like Markus Aurelius, Bonita Aurelia.
Update 11.40 a.m.
No Head to Heads to recommend at the prices.
The GOAT’s best sports bet is on Sunday the Roosters -6.5 $1.90
Suggest late quaddie at Ellerslie for $30 for 10%
R6 2, 3, 5, 11, 14
R7 1, 4, 11
R8 4, 5, 6, 10, 11
R9 2, 3, 4, 10
Update 8.45 a.m.
With the 7mm of rain overnight at Ellerslie it has got down to a Slow 9, possibly worse but we will have to wait and see. I’ll post an update by noon. Tony Be really comes into it now and is a Quality bet at $7.50 4 units but may pay more closer to start time with strong punting stables in the race. Atishu should win at Riccarton. And Itsonlymoney will be hard to beat if the track is a genuine Dead 4 or better.
Bet of the day Riccarton race 7 1.Atishu $1.50 FF
Value bet of the day Ellerslie race 7 4.Tony Be $7.50 FF
Speed map Special Ellerslie race 5 1.Atullibigeal $2.20 FF
Robert, who won Heads up, has a $20 multi with Atishu to win and Tony Be to win to return $225
Update 6 p.m. Friday- there has been a bit of rain at the track late afternoon based on what has fallen at Alexandra Park. So wait and see how the track comes up tomorrow morning before betting. probably looking at a Slow 9.
Heads Up below with a preview of the Easter, your chance to win a $20 multi and much more
Ellerslie early preview- next update by 5 p.m. Friday
The speed map shows six runners looking to lead or be on it from inside to outside so a fast early speed and at least even from there setting up for a closer or runner getting all favours in behind the speed.
7.Malt Time looked good winning at Pukekohe when winning easily in the best of the 5 x 1200m times that day. He may have been feeling something next up when he hung and ran wide. In his recent trial he was snagged back and got going 500m out and idled to the post for a close second looking ready to fire up fresh. Drawn to land in behind a good speed here and looks the one to beat fresh up with Danielle up. RP $4.80, $6.50 FF
1.Divine Dive drop back in class and won here last July on a heavy 10 track. Gets 1kg off from a good draw and looks a realistic chance with the rain overnight.
2.Keats was unlucky last start behind a subsequent good winner Secret Amour and will likely snag here with Opie up and with the good tempo likely, charge at these late.
The speed map shows Crystallize and Manrico likely to share a moderate to even tempo and Manrico may have a go at leading with his fitness edge and the rider knowing he prefers to lead as he did three starts back here and won well.
3.Manrico led all the way here over 1400m three starts back and won again here last start. He sat just off Babylon Berlin, who was an impressive winner last week, and had her covered 100m out to win in very good time for the Dead 6 track rating. He gets in on a winning weight again and drawn to land second outer early but with his fitness edge and Tegan knowing he is best in front, may have a go at leading with Crytallize being fresh up. Either way, they won’t go hard so he should get every chance to kick and hold these out. His best form is on Dead and better tracks but his action says a Slow 8 or better , especially with him being stronger now, should be ok. RP $2.50, $4.20FF Update: The Slow 9 track is not ideal so see how the track is playing.
4.New York Jazz will appreciate the Slow 9 track more than most and is right in this.
The speed map shows most of the field wanting to be on or near the pace so a fast early tempo and at least even from there suiting off pace runners or runners with cosy trips.
Confidence: 1/5 on a slow 9 track now makes this race tricky
5.Angel Helena won over 1600m in Oz from a good draw trailing and driving through and won well. Trialled up really well when off the pace and cruised up wide and wasn’t pushed in the straight. Very well bred out of 5 win mare Planet Rock who won five races including the Lowland and Group 2 8 Carat Classic in fast time, and that was after winning the 1000 Guineas. Her action suggests a Slow or better track will be fine. RP $5
7.Stringline is a good filly who really wants to win and has the power under her to win a few races. Drawn wide here and with good speed under her, so Lisa Allpress may elect to snag and track into it. With the right run, she can definitely win. RP $4.50, $6 FF Update- a slow 9 track isn’t ideal with her action
4.Bonita Aurelia improved nicely to lead all the way last start second up. She definitely looked like she would improve with that as well. So third up where she should land on the pace, she does look hard to beat. RP $3, $2.80 Update- a slow 9 track isn’t ideal with her action
The speed map shows Cassio should set a fast tempo and make it a true staying test so off pace runners are favoured.
9.Rip Em Up built to a very strong win last start third up at Tauranga. She got back and loomed up 200m out stretched out and attacked the line the best of anything and the sectionals of 34.42 and 11.64 compared very well to shorter races on the day, plus it was off a decent tempo. Yes, she is up in class won doing the same in 2020 when winning back to back R65 and R72 races well. Tegan will very likely let her flop out and get back with Cassio ripping along in front. If she get going around 800m out and be in striking distance on the turn, she can power over these again with 54 kgs and the sectionals she can run home in off a decent tempo. RP $5, $7.50 Ff A slow 9 track should be ok.
7.No Compromise ran an improver’s third last start. Smartt stayer on wet ground with Lisa Allpress up and looks right in it on the slow 9 track now.
The speed map shows Atullibigeal sliding over to lead comfortably and Lady Maroal looking to get out well and secure the trail. A moderate tempo likely.
1.Atullibigeal led all the way here to win well in a very good speed rating for the 1300m for that class. He maps to get his own way in front again and his action says 1600m on a wet track will be ideal. With his winning experience here he does look the obvious one. RP $2.50, $2.50 FF
8.Lady Maroal is nicely placed after dropping out of the harder Sires produce. Query is a slow to heavy track so see how the track is playing by this time.
14.Barbara with the Slow track and especially if it is playing worse, looks a nice eachway chance here on the 51.5kgs. She was a decisive winner fresh up on a heavy track and handles slow to heavy very well. RP $6, $9
5.Zelenski good race fresh up over 1200m. 1400m suits better and a slow track ok.
11.Limentis nice horse with the right rider.
3.Tightlign ready to fire fresh up after two trial wins with Lisa Allpress up.
The speed map shows Daqiansweet Junior and Lowry out wide looking to lead with not a lot of on pace runners behind them. So a dew of those will likely kick up and look to get handier than usual. A Moderate tempo likely suiting runners in the first half of the field.
Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet 4 units a win at $7.50 FF
4.Tony Be really comes into it now on a slow 9 or worse track. He bolted in here over 1600m beating Joy Alone easily on a slow 8 track. Then last start at Awapuni was last, had to come the widest on the turn, and charged late for a close fifth running 11.85 for his last 200m which was better than any of the open class gallopers over 1400m. He has an ideal action for a slow to heavy track. Will be fitter for that run and obviously goes best here with his other win coming here over 1600m last December.
Drawn wide but will drop back and with the inside likely to be off, just needs a reasonable track into it to be very hard to beat. RP $3.50 $7.50 and $2.60 FF
1.Milford Sound looks like a real race horse who will relish a middle distance. last start he just got away a bit awkwardly and had to snag back from a wide draw, but he did very well to work up on the slower inner ground and led 50m out and was nutted by race rival Joy Alone. He has drawn well here and he can begin ok so if he can land about 6th or 7th, he is going to be close enough with the likely moderate tempo, then his power and will to win will take him the rest of the way. The negative is first time here and right handed, plus the inside may be off by this time of day.
The speed map shows Irish Girl and Gino Severini looking to lead with many looking to be near them, so an even tempo likely with some runners drawn wide likely to go forward.
4.Demonteziation ran a strong second here on new Year’s Day in the Rich Hill Mile in a fast time beating Coventina Bay ( 3rd) who has gone very well since. he looked in need of the run here when fresh up over 1200m with 62kgs. Since then he ran a nice close up third in a jumpout on Monday here.
Top trainer Nigel Tiley has got him primed for this and the early move in the market suggests he is spot on. maps to get into a good spot and be hard to beat. RP $5, $8 FF
5.Markus Aurelius really stepped up and improved four lengths on his previous win here when he worked to get 2nd outer with a first 400m of 24.25 and still won decisively in the best speed rating all day. This is harder and he is going to have to work just as hard to get 2nd outer or does look in danger of being 3 wide, but probably with cover. From there, with 54kgs again, he should be the one to beat but $2.20 FF is too short up against his toughest field so far.
6.Crafty Jess had to work from the 600m to the 400m to get handy last Saturday and just blew out. Has won second up and been an unlucky 4th in another. Drawn to get all favours. Slow track form is good.
11.Red Hussar keeps on improving and won really well last start. A slow 9 track is ideal and drawn to get a good run.
4.Malik solid third second up and has won on a slow track. If inside is ok can win.
3.Covenant looked in need of the run fresh up when fighting well for third. Danielle jumps bak on who won on her last campaign
2.Always More gets 2kgs off and won very well in maiden company last start. Wet track ok.
10.Trigon Lad is very fit and could try and lead and put the pedal down well out to make it a survival of the fittest.
Some very open races that are definitely advantage bookies
Below are the ones that look well placed to win but with showers forecast, it could accentuate any bias and make inside draws a negative.
7.Den Bosch almost got up last start over 2200m. There was daylight to third. That was his second run over gr4ound so should be spot on now for a go at 2500m which looks ideal for him. RP $4, $5 FF
1.Atishu looks very, very hard to beat here. She bolted in last start and the time and sectionals were superior to the Open handicap over the same distance. She rtelaxes well and 2000m will suit her even better, so at set weights, only very, very bad luck can beat her. RP $1.30, $1.60 FF
Confidence:3/5 but wouldn’t touch him until we know there is no severe bias away from the rail.
1.Beauden beat a stronger field last start easily. Granted, it was on his favourite track but he has won at other tracks just as impressively. WFA means he gets in very well at the weights, compared to a handicap. Drawn to get a good run in the first six, and only a badly biased track could beat him. RP $1.90, $2.10 FF
4.Itsonlymoney bolted in last start and the time and sectionals say she is going to win a few more races. He does need a geuine Dead or better surface and with showers forecast for the afternoon, he may not get that, so he is a wait and see bet. RP $4, $6 FF