Home » Results » Saturday 15 May 2021 preview below

Saturday 15 May 2021 preview below

Yuk, what a horrible day of racing!

Rotorua

With the heavy rain overnight of 15mm, it will make it a true staying test. So I have used the Formpro Ratings, which rates every galloper in the country with a performance number. The higher the number, the better the run. We are also able to sort the best runs according to track condition, distance, course and time span.

Below I’ve mentioned the best raters on a heavy track. They just don’t line up and win, you have to take into other factors like fitness, weight, draw  on a biased track etc. It works best on R65 and better races as maidens just don’t have enough history in them to get a decent picture.

Bet of the day Rosehill Race 5 1.Prime Star $2.50 FF

Value bet of the day Rotorua Race 6 6.Paisley Park $6.50 FF

Multi of the day: Prime Star $2.50 with New Plymouth Race 5 3.Magdala $3.20 FF $10 returns $80 FF This is also Pete J’s $20 multi for the Heads Up podcast.

NB

The GOAT has emailed his best sports bet of the weekend through and it is a multi on tonight’s late games:

A two leg multi on tonight’s games.

Manly v Brisbane – Friday night 10.05pm kickoff – Manly have really hit their straps since Tommy Turbo returned to their ranks.  They are playing with real confidence and will be far too strong for Brisbane who haven’t really impressed me this season.  Manly -9.5 @ $1.90

In the AFL St Kilda meet Geelong.  Geelong have been playing far stronger opposition of late and have a good record at Marvel Stadium under the roof.  Expect the Cats to kick at least 100 points which will ensure they cover the 18.5 point start.  Geelong -18.5 @ $1.83

3 units on the multi. Yes, returned 10.5 units

 

A tricky day of punting coming up but I’ve sorted out three good confidence bets below. No quality bets so far. Next update 9 a.m. Saturday

Rotorua

With the Heavy 11 track a bit of rain tonight and Saturday morning, it favours runners drawn out that sweep in the later races.

Race 4

The speed map shows quite a few runners looking to get handy with no obvious leader.

 

Confidence: 1/5 Suggested bet 1 unit eachway on tote.

2.Alaskan Gold has the best rating of 104 which rates well clear of the rest. That was when he drew out late on a very heavy track at Pukekohe giving 5.5kgs to the second horse. He also won here on a heavy 10 track over 1560m from the 1×1. Drawn out but that could be a plus. RP $12

Race 6

The speed map shows good speed out wide and a few hunting out to get handy so a fast early pace and at least even from there with Cassio in. So it does set up for a closing sweeper out wide.

Confidence: 2/5

6.Paisley Park  has the best FR in this after weight adjustments and has the second best FR on a heavy track behind Verry Flash. From the draw he should get an ideal run on the outer of others and be able to get out wider to make a winning run with the light weight. His two runs here produced a win on a heavy 10 track and game third on a Slow 7. RP $, $10 Ff and likely to pay more on the tote. RP $6, $10 FF

Dangers:

8.Bakela has won on a heavy 11 over hurdles very easily and won on a slow track at Waverley over 2200m. Recent easy trial win and in his last trial had a quiet run, full of running.

14.Spring Delight  ran on well in a strong field second up and has ran a good second on a heavy 10 track. Fitter now.

12.Verry Flash  ( 1st and 3rd best Formpro ratings on a heavy track. ) He won’t mind the slog more than most and ran a strong second two starts back.

Race 7

The speed map shows Because leading out with Vitachi and Ata Rangi looking to get handy but not much pace in the race.

Confidence: 2/5

8.Khafeef  has been rating well in strong fields. This is a bit easier and he drops back from a stronger R74 jumpers race last start. Should get back and sweep into it and be in the right spot to get over these. RP $4

4.Ata Rangi  racing well and a heavy track should be ok.

14Summer Warrior  and 6.Rocking Good Time have the best ratings on a heavy track but probably need the runs. Worth sneaking into exotics though.

Race 8

The speed map shows good early speed from out wide ensuring an even tempo.

Confidence:2/5

4.Crowning Star  looked in need of the run when she won well fresh up at Awapuni. So she should be even better here and if she can get away from the inside near the turn, she should be the one to beat with Danielle Johnson up. A Heavy track will only aid her chances. RP $3.50

1.Supreme Heights  looked ready to win fresh up when leading all the way in her recent trial beating subsequent winner Even Chance. Ideal bog track action.

Race 9

9.Tiffen was an impressive winner here on debut and looks a progressive type.

1.Heza Looker  will be fitter for that first up run. Nice horse.

11.Medelza and 4.Ottavio  have the best FRs on a heavy track.

New Plymouth

A heavy 10 track with heavy rain forecast Friday night then clearing in the morning.

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5

3.Magdala goes best here with her last two wins here over 1400 and 1600m. Good run fresh up and gets in very nicely at the weights with 3kgs off. She rates 5 lengths clear of these on a heavy track and should be in the first four comfortably and get every chance to be too good for these. RP $2.80. $3.40 FF

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

4.Hasabro  ran a career best race last start when second to Demonetization in the Easter handicap beating better horses than these. Should go forward and the 1800m is ideal and he does look very hard to beat. RP $2.20, $2.50 FF

Rosehill

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5

1.Prime Star  is very well placed here at set weights. He ran strong races in much stronger fields and  rates 16 points better then the second horse. Looked ready to win when relaxing well behind the leaders and closed off full of running. Should get an ideal run about 5th or 6th and Tommy Berry knows him well. RP $2.40, $2.60 FF

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!