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Saturday 29 May preview below

Update 10.35 a.m.

Suggested late quaddie at Ellerslie for $9.60 for 20%

R6    10
R7    12713
R8    1516
R9    141114

Update 10.09 a.m. Scott, who won the $20 Heads Up multi has Rosewood and Dawn Parade to return $125.40

Good morning,

It is a wait and see day with rain forecast for both NZ tracks. Rosewood and Dawn Parade should both be hard to bet regardless of the weather.

I’ll post an update by 11.15 a.m.

Trentham  

Bet of the day Trentham Race 2 2.Rosewood $2 FF

Suggested multi Rosewood with Ellerslie Race 3 3.Dawn Parade $3.60 Ff in from $4.60 FF1st $3.80 

The GOAT’s best sports bet is 4 units on The Warriors -2.5 at $1.90 at 8 p.m. tonight

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

3.Password  has won here over 1600m and has good place form on heavy tracks. Drawn to get all favours. RP $4

Race 2

Confidence:3/5

2.Rosewood does look a couple of classes above these on what she has done on heavy tracks. She gets in on a winning weight and looks very hard to beat. RP $1.70, $2 FF

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

11.Chica Bonita  almost got up fresh up and looked a definite improver. Lisa Allpress jumps on and she has run well on a heavy track. RP $3

Race 4

Confidence:2/5

3.Jessie’s Rock  ran a top race last start giving decent weight away. Up in class but drops to a winning weight. Lisa Allpress jumps on and they will be hard to beat. Query is a very heavy track though.RP $2.70, $2.40 FF

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

8.Pleasure  had to be good to win on debut so can step up here. Looks like she handles a  heavy track very well. RP $4

Dangers:

5.Hooter looked very good on debut and a wide draw could be an asset?

2.Secret Squirrel  needs to be ridden with a well timed finish as once he hits the front he is definitely beatable.

Race 6

Confidence:2/5

9.Raced Evens looked very good winning at Whanganui and will have been set for this. Drawn out which could be a plus.

Dangers:

5.Diogenes  stepped up on the heavy track last start and gets in on a winning weight again.

3.Excelleration  good mare and with a freshener with 3kgs off, has to be in it.

6.Seaaprince  is a a strong galloper suited a slog to the line which this could be.

Race 7

Confidence:2/5

3.Mogador  is a good horse and was caught in the slow lane last start. Gets 3kgs off and if the inside is ok here, is the one to beat. RP $5

Dangers:

1.Speed Call bolted in fresh up over 1600m last year and has had two trials to get ready again.

4.Super Flash  has won on a very heavy track and is a good galloper on wet tracks.

Ellerslie

With rain forecast on Saturday and a fair bit of it, selections are based on a heavy track despite it being a Dead 6.

Race 1

Confidence 2/5 1st $10 

6.Lily Thunder ran an excellent 2nd fresh up then was a bit flat second up. A heavy track will suit ideally and weighted to be a solid eachway chance.

Dangers:

8.Volitivo  is the up and comer against many that have been battling away in harder fields.

Race 2

Confidence:2/5 There is a super surge on this for $4.60 with Lightning Field and Rosewood both to win. On the current odds it is value.

1.Lightning Field 1st $2.30  looks like he has been targeted for this. He has run a few very good placings and has been freshened up for this plus they have put Joe on to get a crucial 3kgs off. Drawn well and should handle a slow track if the rain has arrived by this race. RP $2.40, $2.10 FF

Race 3

Confidence:3/5

3.Dawn Parade showed he is back to his best, which is very good, when winning second up last start. The step to 1400m looks ideal third up. Query is right handed but looks more professional now and likely to be ridden quiet again so he can unleash his devastating sprint. RP $3.50, $4.60 FF

Race 4

Confidence:2/5

9.Judy’s Song is a promising stayer and looks ready to win after hitting the line strongly in her recent runs. A heavy track will only help her chances.

Dangers:

3.Ata Rangi another strong placing last start. Just needs the right run for a change.

8.Wind Chimes  ran home nicely last start and more ground on a wet track looks ideal.

2.Rising Renown  will appreciate the 3kgs off and can win with the right run.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

1.Atullibigeal 1st $3.50   was run down late by race rival Lady Maroal here last start and back to 1400m looks to suit him better. RP $2.80, $3.30 Ff

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

10.Shoshone  looked a definite improver out of Te Rapa and on a surface that was probably too good for her. She won second up  last campaign and has won three times here on a slow and heavy track, so on the light weight, she looks the one. RP $3.40, $3.80 FF

Dangers:

8.Speedy Meady  did well fresh up and on a heavy track with the light weight, is an upset chance.

9.Play That Song   is a good horse who won his recent trial well.

1.Pop Star Princess with a fast beginning a softish mid race sectional, and if the rail is ok, could do it again.

Race 7

Just depends on how the track is playing – inside or wider?

1.Thunder, if the middle or wider is the place to be, with 3kgs off, is the one to beat.

2.Packing Noblesse, if the fence is the place to be, could lead them all the way.

13.London Bound  ran home well last start in a strong field.

7.Megeve  solid second fresh up and won well on a slow track second up.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

5.Cherry Lane  drops back in class after a good 4th at WFA and with 2kgs off and a good draw, looks the obvious one.

16.Magdala  is a better horse than that last run. Fitter and wide draw could be a plus.

1.Orakei Overlord  fitter now and if the track is slow or better is a chance.

Race 9

Confidence:1/5 and depends on what the track is like.

14.Heart Of The Ocean is ready to win after a strong third on a very heavy track last start. Needs it slow or better. RP $5, $5 FF

Dangers:

1.Uncle Terry  won well last start. Stays in the same grade with 3kgs off again.

11.Diamond Girl tough win last start and looks a progressive mare.

4.Alaskan Gold  ran a game 4th last start. Will relish a heavy track.

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!