As you will know, when it gets to a Heavy 10 or worse, especially with the rail out 4 metres, it doesn’t take them long to get out to the fast lane out by the outside fence. So it does make it very hard for riders to drawn near the inner to get out there. So if you can find races where the favourites have drawn near the inner and are likely to be behind the leaders, we should be able to find some value, which I hope I have found here. I’ll post any of those by 11.30 a.m.
There is a nice eachway chance in race 2
The speed map shows four runners looking to be on pace and a moderate tempo likely.
Confidence: 2/5 Suggested bet 1 unit eachway at $8 and $2.80 FF
12.Midnight Spark has been wanting to get over a middle distance and gets it here. Her last start indicated that when she got back over the 1400m at Awapuni but unwound fast late. In fact her last 200m of 11.74 was the fastest all day and nothing else broke 12 seconds for that 200m. It is a big ask stepping from 1400m to 2060m and she has drawn near the inner but being the second race, as long as Hazel can get her away from the inside on the turn ( she maps to be in the trail or three back inner) , she should get her chance to mow these down. She actually rates equally on top after weight adjustments in the Formpro Ratings. Good eachway value. RP $5, $8 FF
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