Update 10 a.m. No further bets
As you will know, when it gets to a Heavy 10 or worse, especially with the rail out 4 metres, it doesn’t take them long to get out to the fast lane out by the outside fence. So it does make it very hard for riders to drawn near the inner to get out there. So if you can find races where the favourites have drawn near the inner and are likely to be behind the leaders, we should be able to find some value. The bookies may slip up and give a head to head where the draw could strongly favour one runner over the other. I’ll post any of those by 11.30 a.m.
Bet of the Day Race 8 2.Busybeingfabulous $4 FF 4th
Value bet of the Day Race 2 12.Midnight Spark $8 FF
Multi of the day Midnight Spark Top 4 at $2.40, Sir Beets top 3 at $2 and Busybeingfabulous top 3 at $1.70. $10 returns $81.60
The speed map shows four runners looking to be on pace and a moderate tempo likely.
Confidence: 2/5 Suggested bet 1 unit eachway at $8 and $2.80 FF
12.Midnight Spark has been wanting to get over a middle distance and gets it here. Her last start indicated that when she got back over the 1400m at Awapuni but unwound fast late. In fact her last 200m of 11.74 was the fastest all day and nothing else broke 12 seconds for 200m. It is a big ask stepping from 1400m to 2060m and she has drawn near the inner but being the second race, as long as Hazel can get her away from the inside on the turn ( she maps to be in the trail or three back inner) , she should get her chance to mow these down. She actually rates equally on top after weight adjustments in the Formpro Ratings. Good eachway value. RP $5, $8 FF
The speed map shows good speed out wide with a few kicking up inside so at least an even tempo suiting swoopers out wide in the fast lane.
4.Sir Beets Suggested bet 2 units on Top 2 at $3 Ff 1st $3.80
Last start at Woodville I liked the way he put his head down and hit the line strongly with a good wet track action. Looks ideally suited to 1600m now especially on a heavy track as he won his maiden on a very heavy track at Otaki coming from last and going round the lot. As can be seen in the speed map, he will get back but with the good speed likely, will get his chance to get out wide and swoop over these. RP $3.80, $5 FF
The speed map shows the two favourites, Dawn County and Zoey Satin, drawing near the inside getting midfield or worse near the inner making it difficult to get to the outside.
Confidence: 2/5 Suggested bet 2 units a win at $4 FF
2.Busybeingfabulous hit the line hard last start second up in good sectionals in the context of the day. He will be peaking for this third up and with Lisa Allpress in the saddle, who rides this track when it is heavy, better than any other rider, she will get him to a winning spot and with the two favoured runners hopefully caught in the slower ground, they can get home in front. RP $3.20, $4 FF