Saturday 19 June preview below

Saturday preview

The forecast for today at Ruakaka, Saturday, is for 13 mm of rain over 8mm that they had during the night. Currently a Dead 5. It doesn’t affect the track as badly as others though but they do tend to get out to the centre and wider after a few races as it cuts up near the inside.

Bet of the day is at Flemington with Kuribai looking like a very, very good mare. The best multi is with Express Pass in race 3 there to return around $50 for $10.

I’ll post an update by 11.15 a.m.

Bet of the Day Flemington Race 5 9.Kuribai $1.75 FF  3rd

Value bet of the Day Awapuni Race 7 2.Diogenes $5.50 FF Missed

Ruakaka

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

11.Selva Verde  1st $7  on debut ran on strongly in a better maiden field at Ellerslie. The step to 1400m in a weaker maiden with 2kgs off and being more experienced and fitter, means she is a nice eachway chance. RP $5, $8 into $6.50 FF which is a good sign from this stable.

Race 2

Confidence:2/5

7.Kool Power 1st $3.50  is a justified favourite after her strong 2nd fresh up beating Gaelic Spirit ( 1.5L back in third place) who won really well on Thursday. RP $3, $3.30 FF

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

6.Precious Colours  has run two solid seconds and will be right at her peak now third up. Drawn to get a winning run and looks well placed. RP $3.50, $3.80 FF

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

3.Wotsabouthim 1st $2 looked very good winning at Hastings and looks a very progressive type. His last 200m of 11.78 was easily the best of the day and that was after he was held up and flew then eased down late. Should get an ideal run and be very hard to beat. RP $1.70, $2 FF

Race 5

Confidence:2/5

4.Make Time  won strongly fresh up over 1400 on a Slow 7 track but battled in his next two races on slower tracks. Should get a better surface here despite the rain and if the inside is ok, should get every chance to win again. RP $5, $6.50 FF

Race 6

4.Funtonic  looked good winning well at Cambridge in a good speed rating. dropped back to 1200m next up and ran on well. Drawn well and with a good speed likely, will get his chance to get over these late. RP $3.80, $3.80 FF

Dangers:

5.Paradigm Shift 1st $8  did well to win on debut. Looks a nice type.

10.Laurant is likely to snag and if they go hard enough can win.

Other thoughts:

2.Viking  should have won last start with the run he got, so against a couple of smart ones here, it is hard to him beating those even with improvement.

 

Race 7

The speed map shows Cassio and Big Mike ensuring a good tempo suiting off pace runners.

Confidence: 2/5

3.Masetto 1st $3  put in a big run to hold second last start. After travelling wide for most of the way, he was only run down in the last 100 metres. The step to 2100m is ideal. He is a natural stayer and gets 3kgs off. Looks to be a decent tempo which will suit. RP $4

Dangers:

6.Double Happy  looked good closing off hard for 4th fresh up. Natural stayer and will be suited by the decent tempo.

5.Steven James ran home well second up and will be suited by the step up in distance with the light weight of 51.kgs.

9.Rising Renown  looked good winning two starts back and the heavy track didn’t suit last start.

Race 8

Confidence: 0.1/5

This is a field job for the quaddies. You can make a case for every horse especially with the rain about and how the track may play.

Race 9

Confidence: 0.2/5

Another field job.

3.Playsameanpinball  is probably the best eachway chance at odds, but with the rain about you just can’t bet with any sort of confidence into this race.

 

Awapuni 

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

6.Happy Star  is one of those rare horses that has won on a very heavy track both here and Trentham. He has to improve off that last win so looks well placed with Lisa Allpress up again. RP $2.50, $2.90 Ff

Dangers:

3.Charlie Horse  looked a definite improver out of Trentham and has won on a heavy 11 here.

Other Thoughts:

Rosewood just isn’t firing and the rider said she needed the blinkers off two starts back and they haven’t come off.

Hartley needs a better surface to beat the top two here.

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5

2.Justaskme is a very good horse and this should be a very profitable campaign for him. There looks to be an even speed in here which will allow him to settle off them and with his powerful finish, should get over these. $2.00, $2.30 FF

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

2.Diogenes  won really well at New Plymouth then lost a show at Trentham in the heavy stuff. Can bounce  back here third up and peaking.  $4.50, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

3.Invisible Spirit is a good horse and if the inside is ok is a realistic chance. Looked ready winning his recent trial.

4.Rock Island Line is ready for a peak performance now.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

13.Sea Star  2nd $3 has been finding the line well in his two runs back. He relishes a very heavy track and Lisa Allpress jumps back on. RP $7, $11 FF

Dangers:

13.Kusada has been freshened up and won his maiden very well here. Gets 3kgs off so looks nicely placed. Should handle a heavy track ok but if inside is off he is in trouble.

3.Cetus  has won twice fresh up and handles heavy ground.

 

Flemington

Race 3

Confidence: 3/5

1.Express Pass 1st $3 definitely looked like he would improve off his last run when he loomed and just blew out in the last 50 metres on the testing track. Plus he seemed a bit horse shy at the same time. Gets the blinkers on at the right time on a 7 day back up on a better surface. Should get a good run off the pace and be in the right part of the track to power over these on the better surface. RP $2.40, $2.90 FF

Race 5

Confidence: 4/5

9.Kuribai 3rd after an indecisive ride  is a beautiful striding galloper and is unbeaten in four starts. Relaxes well and has a turn of foot only very good only horses have. Up in class but looks a class above these again. RP $1.40, $1.75 FF