A tricky day on a track I always find hard to predict any bias. Sometimes it suits leaders, other times swoopers. The best riders are usually the ones to watch to get a guide on that.
Bet of the day Race 9 4. Manua Loa $4.20 FF 1st $4.90
Value bet of the day Race 1 2.Aigne $14 Ff
2.Aigne has the two best Formpro ratings over a middle distance on wet tracks in the last 12 months. His 4th at Trentham two starts back was solid in a stronger field. Has to be a decent value bet at his odds. RP $7, $14 In from $19 which was ridiculous overs.
7.Chica Bonita On May 9th the weekly review comment said,’ Before the start trainer Fraser Auret said she really needed a wetter track to show her best,’ so to almost win on the Dead track shows she is right on track to clear maidens.’
In her next two starts over 1400m she was doing her best work late. It is a decent step up in distance to 2200m but Fraser Auret is a top trainer who can get them ready to win fresh over a middle distance so she is a nice eachway chance. RP $3.70, $3.80 FF
Confidence:2/5 2nd $3
5.Iconic Lass looks well placed back to 1200m. She set a good pace last start over 1360m rave on a biased track. If the inside is ok, which it should be, she gets her chance to break through. RP $4.50, $6.50 FF
9.Belclare 2nd $3
Fresh up from the wide draw she ended up near the back but kept up a sustained finish to run a top fourth in the best closing sectionals. Drawn wide and will get back and the heavy track will suit ideally. RP $5, $7.50 FF
Confidence: 2/5 1st $4.90
4.Mauna Loa In the weekly review it said, ‘ After being crowded early and then wide in the open, he did well to run second in the second best closing sectionals. It looked like he would definitely improve with that run so watch out for him next up.’ He gets in here nicely with 3kgs off, and he did run a strong second here on a slow track last year. I give him a clear edge over Lucky Park who looks the best quinella chance at $11 FF RP $4.50
5.Lucky Park She was one of the very few runners who made good ground down the centre of the track. Her last 200m was the second fastest and back to 1600m looks like suiting her next up.