Update 11.30 a.m.
Head to Heads
Randwick race 1 War Command $1.60 to beat Miss In Charge. War Command ran a powerful 2nd in a good speed rating last start with an ideal wet track action and the step to 1400m looks ideal third up. Miss In Charge all favours and ridden out to win in slow speed rating last start and War Command should land closer and looks too strong being a colt v filly.
Ruakaka Race 1 Express Desire to win $1.75, the Head to Head above $1.60, Randwick 8 Its Lily Top 3 $1.65 and Randwick race 9 Expat Top 2 $1.60 $10 returns $73.90. If Express Desire gets beaten then take the last three $10 returns $42.20
Saturday preview below. Trentham abandoned. I’ll post an update by 11.50 a.m. with any further bets.
Bet of the day Ruakaka Race 1 5.Express Desire $1.80 Ff
Value bet of the day Sydney Race 8 6.Itz Lily $5.50 Ff
Speed Map Special Sydney Race 9 1.Expat $2.80 Ff
Sneaky of the day Ruakaka race 7 2.The Dom $13 and $3.50 Ff
5.Express Desire 2nd does look very hard to beat here. In both of her runs she has drawn wide and got back and charged home in top sectionals that maidens rarely run. Drawn the inside here and she did show enough speed here last start on jumping, before she was snagged. So she can secure the trail with a clean beginning and from there, she looks a class above these. RP $1.70, $1.80 Ff
1.El Noir beaten by a horse that was hit 8 times and rider fined $300- litle compensation for those on El Noir and it clearly gave an advantage to the winner. I just feel is the best horse in the race. And she is best ridden colder as she has a very good action and when balanced up, on a decent surface, it takes a good one to beat her. So from barrier 5 she is likely to settle 5th outer and be close enough for Michael McNab to track into it wider on the turn and bury these late. RP $ $2.30, $2.50 FF
1.Masetto was going like the winner well out here last start and bolted in beating race rival by 5 lengths. There is a decent weight swing in favour of Steven James this time but from the draws, Masetto will get a better run and looks very hard to beat. RP $1.50, $1.80 Ff
3.Steven James looks a good bet for the top two at $2.90 as he ran a strong second here two back then ran on well then battled ok last week over 1600m. Very fit now and should finish 2nd or could even win if Masetto has an off day.
10.Shelob does look outclassed being a maiden but last start here she put in the quickest last 200m all day and that was in a 1600m race and she was strong through the line. So the step up in distance will help so at $4.50 for top 4 and maybe more later, she is worth a small bet.
8.Hugh Glass put in two top runs here then didn’t match that left handed at Te Rapa. Back here with 4kgs off could change that.
3.Irish Girl 1st and got out to $3.70
in the review of her last start it said, ‘She had every excuse to weaken after having the toughest run in the race out wide in the open but still ran close to the best closing sectionals for second. With a couple of weeks till the next meeting back here, she is going to be very hard to beat, especially from a decent draw.’
Well she has the draw this time and should get a winning run and beat these. RP $2, $2.50 Ff
2.The Dom last start here, ‘ From a wide draw he was caught wide on a strong tempo and naturally tired to seventh. The bonus is he drops back to a rating of 65, so watch out for him from a better draw back in class at his next couple of starts.
He gets that drop back here against an average lot with 1kg off. Maps to land 4th or 5th outer and get his chance to upset. RP $7, $13 FF
6.Itz Lily 2nd needs a wet track to show her best, so to run as close as she did in stronger races in Queensland, says she is well suited back on this wet track. She has won 6 of her races on these conditions and her recent trial showed she was spot on to get back into winning form. James McDonald jumps back on and from the good draw, he should be able to position her in a winning position. Ideal action for a wet track too. RP $4, $5.50 FF and has been backed in.
1.Expat has led all the way in her last two wins and it was a very good speed rating last start. Strong filly who should hold her form and gets 2kgs off which makes her well placed again. Should lead or sit outside it and against an average lot in the same grade, looks very hard to beat again. RP $2.40, $2.80 Ff