Update 11.30 a.m.
$10 multi on the four below returns $123
Race 1 Head to Head Twin Spinner $2 to beat Double Happy. The last time these two met on a heavy track and at similar weights. Spinner beat Double by 5 lengths. Spinner maps to get a soft lead and Double Happy will have to do extra work, so it makes $2 value.
Race 2 Head to Head Donnstar $1.80 to beat Maitland– Donnstar trialed very well here and at Ellerslie on heavy tracks looking like she would be better over more than the 1200m she just battled away on on debut at Te Aroha. Gets a 5kg advantage over Maitland who looked to struggle in his trial on a very heavy track at Ellerslie and his action suggests he needs a better surface.
Race 6 Head to Head Burcha $1.80 to beat Tavi With Me. Tavi may have had enough based on her last two runs and will have to work more than Burcha who is peaking.
Race 8 Head to Head Quality Prevails $1.90 to beat Coruba Jak who rates 7 lengths worse than Quality Prevails.
The track has been heavy 11 all week and unlikely to get an upgrade. So we need to find fit horses who can handle a slog in the bog.
I can’t label a bet of the day but there are some nice eachway chances. I’ll post an update by 11.45 with any head to heads etc.
Value bet of the day Race 6 1.Burcha $6 FF
Suggested late quaddie for $12 for 100%
R4 1, 2, 4
R5 1, 5
R7 2, 11
4.Charred ran a career best Formpro rating last start of 111 in an Open handicap. So the drop back in class has to make him well placed. Three of his last five starts have been right handed which have produced his best runs. RP $4, $4.80 FF
5.The Twinkling has rated clearly the best in her last four starts. She fights very hard and looks set to slide over 2nd outer and be hard to beat from there.
8.Beauty For Ashes closed off strongly last start and is set to peak now. Nice galloper with a good bog action and well placed here. RP $4
1.Half Of Nothing closed off strongly last start and looks nicely placed here with 3kgs off and dropping back to 1200m with her at peak fitness, should make her the one to beat. RP $3, $3.20 FF
4.Bendermerry has rated well in stronger fields off tough runs. Wet track form good and fitter third up.
2.Perfectionist bit stiff fresh up and handles a wet track here. Gets 4kgs off too.
1.Bergamo Fox just ran out of race day fitness fresh up and was run down late for second. Looked very good at the trials and will be spot on for this. Gets 3kgs off and will notice the difference of 10kgs on his back this time. RP $2.50, $3.30 FF
5.Prince Charming looked good winning his trial here on a heavy track. Strong galloper with a good action.
1.Burcha ran the best race of his career when sharing the pace and holding on for second to Brucie, who looks a progressive type, and he had the rest comfortably covered. Miss Tewinkltoes, who ran 4th in that, has won well since. So with the 14kg drop in weight from the Highweight, he is going to notice that and being right at his peak now, and the way he relaxes and strides out on a bog, he does look a solid eachway chance. RP $4, $6 FF
11.Quality Prevails rates 5 lengths clear of these based on her 2.5L fifth at Ellerslie in an Open handicap two starts back rating FR106. Last start she dropped back to R65 class and closed off hard in the second best sectionals of the race and the winner, Makzabeel, has won again since. Her action suggests she will handle a slog but her form doesn’t. She may just be stronger now and fourth up, right at her peak, she does look well placed. RP $$5, $6.50 FF
2.Jakama Krystal handles a bog well and ran a strong second to a smart horse last start.