Saturday preview below

Update 11.48 a.m. No further bets recommended.

Update 8.45 a.m.

It is just one of those days where the bookies look to have a clear advantage with heavy tracks at both venues. I’ll post an update by noon with any Head to Heads or other bets.

Aaron P won the $20 multi in Heads Up and has Cetus Top 2 $1.80 and Crystallize Top 2 $2.20 FF to return $79.20 Yes

Update 5 p.m.

I’ve spent most of the day going through the NZ and Australian fields and have come up with five runners below that are well placed. Much depends on how the tracks are playing in NZ. e.g. Justaskme is a  good bet if there is no obvious leader’s bias as he will be coming from off the pace. Cetus does look hard to beat if leaders are winning.

Bet of the day New Plymouth Race 4 1.Cetus $3.80 FF $3.50 Saturday morning. 2nd

Value bet of the Day Te Rapa Race 5 2.Crystallize $4.50 FF 1st $4

The Goat’s best sports bet this weekend is tonight 9.10 p.m. Aussie Rules Port Adelaide -24.5 $1.85 Yes won by 28 points

Next update by 5 p.m.

Te Rapa

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5 1st $4

2.Crystallize last start here his review comment was, ’10 July He covered plenty of extra ground so did very well to keep fighting on for second in a handy field. Likely to start here again in the Open Handicap over 1500m on the 24th, and with the capable 4kg claiming apprentice Ace Lawson- Carroll on again, he should be very hard to beat.’

This time he will be very fit and with just 52kgs, has to be hard to beat. He steps to 1500m but was just beaten here over 1600m a couple of years ago and rates on top after weight adjustments. Maps to lead with Big Mike stepping back in distance and usually takes a while to get going. RP $3.70, $4.50 FF

Race 7

Confidence:3/5

4.Sacred Command last start fresh up this was his review comment:

Last start the review said, ‘Ruakaka 3 July. He didn’t show a lot of early speed and got back on the inner, but once he was able to get clear inside the last 150 metres, he found the line hard running the second fastest last 200 metres of the race. Best suited over more ground so watch out for this nicely bred gelding to win in his next couple of starts.

He won easily here second up last campaign and looks set to repeat that. RP $3.80, $4.50 FF

New Plymouth

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

1.Cetus was a dominant winner last start in a very good speed rating. Looks the uncontested leader and with the rail out so far and a likely inside bias, he is a good chance to get his hat trick. $3.00, $3.80 FF

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5 1st $4.50

6.Justaskme is primed to win this with the blinkers going on third up. His first two runs, with his strong last 200 metres in both races, shows he is ready to win third up. There looks to be a good tempo in this and as long as it is not favouring on pace runners, he will be very hard to beat. RP$3.00, $3.80FF

Sydney Rosehill

Race 8

Confidence: 3/5

1.Ashim looks very well placed third up and peaking. His second last start on a heavy track was excellent as he has an action better suited to a better surface. His last two wins in France were over 1400 and 1600m. So from the good draw he maps to get a good run handy and from there on the bettersurface, he is going to be very hard to beat. RP $2.80, $3.00 FF