Formpro | NZ Racing Selections and Analysis Expert horse race sectionals and selections
Best collect was the last quaddie of $9423 which one smart subscriber got a good chunk of by anchoring Ladies Man in one bet and Fransesca in another.
Update: 10.37 a.m.
Head to Heads
Te Rapa Race 1 Hail Damage $1.60 to beat Colin Oscopy. Colin’s best form is on a heavy track and Hail Damage is a progressive type and prefers better ground Yes
Whanganui Race 7 El Nymph $1.60 to beat Happy Star Yes
The Te Rapa track has come up a Slow 7 with a possible upgrade.
$20,000 Guaranteed First four pools at Te Rapa.
Five selections for each race with the $20k First Fours and maybe another to include if you want to go wider.
Update by 11.30 a.m.
Bet of the Day Te Rapa Race 5 5.Imperatriz $1.50 FF Yes multi with Race 7 2.Ladies Man $1.50 Returns $2.25 No
Value bet of the day Whanganui Race 7 8.El Nymph $6 FF
Multi of the day Te Rapa Race 5 5.Imperatriz $1.50 FF multi with Race 7 2.Ladies Man $1.50 Returns $2.25, Tavi Mac Top 2 $1.70, $38.20 returned for $10
Te Rapa
Race 1
2.Barbara 1st $6 First 4 $189 rates clearly on top ( 4 lengths clear ) here after weight adjustments. Top run last start in a sit sprint which didn’t suit. Bolted in the start before. 1.Two Madison gets 3kgs off and has to be the first four based on his last two wins. 7.Hail Damage – the bookies are still getting counselling over the plunge on this fella last start $18s into $5s. Has upside so can be in it. 4.River Run won well here in an easier field but more ground will suit now. 3.Final Suggestion was unlucky in a sprint home last start.
Race 2
3.Rising Ransom 1st $5 qu $29 rates clearly on top by 2 lengths after strong ratings in stronger fields. Gets 2kgs off and should get a good run. 2.Piping Hot 2nd $3.70 ran on nicely fresh up after being held up. Rates 2nd and certainly capable of being in this. 6.Shebringsmerubies from Jamie Richard’s stable will very likely have done enough work to be ready for this. Gets 4kgs off and drawn to get all favours which will help the inexperienced rider. 5.Midnite Invasion two good runs in R74 grade and Matt Cameron will suit her. 7.C’est Une Star just keeps improving and won really well last start. More ground will suit now too.
Race 3
5.Fonsalette ran 4th in the Manawatu Sires, rates 2 lengths clear in the ratings, trialled really well, drawn well, and has Danielle Johnson from a top stable, so ticks a few boxes! 3.Pure Imagination 1st $6 looked good leading from his wide draw in his trial and held on strongly to win in good time. Looks to have a will to win and with a clean beginning could lead or get 2nd outer early on. 11.Shimmering wasn’t pushed at all to run 2nd in her recent trial. Nice galloper drawn to get all favours. 2.Drum Major strong third to Bonny Lass and Noverre last campaign. Awkward draw against but should be in first four. 9.Shambles held on well in her trial to win after leading. Drawn well and bred to win at least one race as three horses out of her dam have all won a race.
Race 4
4.Medal very well bred and could upset these. Two good runs last campaign and in his last trial was allowed get back last and came home stylishly in a sprint home among others. Matt Cameron will suit and drawn the inside to get all favours. 6.Mana Nui 1st $5 looked good winning his recent trial when bolting in. Drawn ideally and is right in this.2.Mr Rafiki has the runs on the board with three solid seconds. Drawn out which is no help though. 5.Hold The Bourbon has looked good in his trials but drawn out so needs luck. 8.The Perfect Pink two nice trials and good debut run. 5.Hoard The Bourbon looked good at the trials but drawn out. Could sneak into 4th.
Race 5
Confidence: 4/5
5.Imperatriz 1st $1.60 is a very good filly as she showed when winning on debut in 1.08.4 at Ellerslie which was faster than Avantage’s win on the same day! She has had two trials and her last trial showed she is ready to win fresh up when 4th outer and bolted away relishing her work. Trainer Jamie Richards is very confident she has come back even better than last campaign and she definitely looks like she has! RP $1.30, $1.50 FF
Dangers: 1.I Wish I Win is a good horse and is ready to fire fresh up. Can win if Imperatriz blows a valve. 3.Doubtful Sound looked above average winning at Ruakaka and is ready to go after two trials. 7.Millefiori drawn to get the right run to get into 3rd or 4th.
Race 6
3.Tavirock is well bred and ran a strong second last start here. Drawn to get all favours and should be fit enough. 4.Captain Oumuamua two strong placings and an improved track should help. 1.Funny game drawn wide so needs luck. If gets it is in the first four. 11.Vegas Strip two nice runs over sprints and bred to relish more ground. 16.Spiderbait rated well fresh up in a stronger field.
Race 7
Confidence: 4/5
2.Ladies Man
His last start review reads:
’24 July A highly thought of gelding by Allan Sharrock, the way he closed off in the best last 200m shows e is likely to be put in the right race next up to win again.’
This is not a strong R65 field and Allan Sharrock has made him his best chance of his runners today and he should get a decent tempo up front to allow Danielle to get going when she wants to and should put these away in the last 100 metres. RP 1.30, $1.50 FF
Dangers:
3.Tickle Me Almo going good races off tough runs. With a good run is in the first four. 9.Dance ‘N’ Sing won easily here on debut. Drawn to get all favours. 4.Flavius 1st $9 drawn to get every chance and placed in last three runs. 5.Hit The Switch rates on top after weight adjustments and strong second last start.
Race 8
Confidence: 3/5 Top 2
1.Tavi Mac won really well fresh up and in this last year drew wide, worked to get 2nd outer and was run down late by Avantage who got all favours. This time he maps to get an ideal run early and get every chance to be a at least 2 or 3 lengths in front of Avantage, who will have done more by the turn. So he will get his chance to hold out Avantage. Recommended bets are Tavi Mac Top 2 $1.70 and Fixed quinella with Avantage $2.40.
Dangers:
9.Avantage is the obvious danger but fresh up over sprint from a wide draw makes her vulnerable. 10.Supreme Heights looked good winning her recent trial and should be able to cross and get into a good spot. 12.Festivity two recent trials and this should be her best season. 13.Only In Jakarta drawn to get the lead and if left alone, can hold on for 3rd or 4th. 5.Marscapone 1st $30 beat Only In Jakarta in his recent trial and maps to get the right run.
Race 9
13.Noverre is a good horse who will win more races. Drawn to get cover and get over them late. 1.Heza Looker stiff last start. Freshened up and has run two seconds here from wider draws. 11.It Might Be You well bred and won easily here on debut. Drawn the rail and if inside is still ok, can win again. 3.Real Slim Tradie 1st $9 is a good looking galloper and if they go hard enough can swamp them. 4.Isla Jay should be even stronger this campaign and with a good run should be right in it.
Race 10
5.Fransesca 1st 2.40 quaddie $9423 big win here last start and based on her trial win, is ready to fire again. 7.Dawn Parade is the main danger. Very good horse. 6.Shezathinka gets 4kgs off from a good draw. Two good trials. 14.Lily D’Or drawn to get all favours and will be ready. 10.Fonteyn is a ice mare and could get into it with a good run.
Whanganui
Race 7
Confidence: 2/5
8.El Nymph has been running very good races and this time looks as though she can get an uncontested lead. As long as they aren’t hunting wider to win by this time of day, with that light weight, she can get a break on these by the turn and the way she fights, means she is a solid eachway chance. RP $5, $6 FF in from $7 FF
Randwick
Race 10
Confidence: 3/5
13.Atishu was a dominant winner last start and the extra 100m is ideal. If the rain comes it will only help her chances as she has handles easily. Drawn to get behind midfield on the outer and that should mean she can track into it and her last 200m is very powerful based on her outstanding closing sectionals. RP $2.80, $3.20 FF
