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Saturday 18th September preview below

Best result was Bella Conte paying huge overs at $21 

Update 11.16 a.m.

Head to Heads 

Hastings Race 1 Aricina $1.70 to beat Rising Ransom Yes

Recommended Multi

H2h above $1.70, with Cheval Prometteur to win and Art De Triomphe to win $102 for $10 2 out of 3

Suggested late quaddie for $15 for 50%

R7   134
R8    816
R9   1271014
R10   9

Update 8.25 a.m. Real shame about Avantage being retired. It is a day where you wouldn’t want to open up the wallet with a slow 8 track and many fresh up runners. I’m really looking forward to analysing afterwards as there are always plenty of winners to come out of this meeting.

Next update by 11.40 a.m. if there are any further bets.

Next update by 9 a.m. Saturday and again by noon with any Australian selections

With rain forecast every day through to Saturday, the current Dead 5 track should get back to a Slow 9 at best and probably a Heavy 10, with the heavy rain watch for Friday.

$25k guaranteed First fours so have mentioned 4 main dangers.

The best bet so far looks to be Race 6 3.Cheval Prometteur $2.40 looks the best bet so far despite the track conditions.

Bet of the day Hastings Race 6 3.Cheval Prometteur $2.40 Ff 2nd 

Value bet of the day Hastings Race 10 9.Dawn Parade $7 FF 5th after getting too far back

The GOAT’s best sports bet all weekend is Penrith 13+ $1.91

Ian S won the Heads Up multi from last week and has Spring Tide Top 4 $2.30 and Penrith 13+ $1.91 to return $87.90 Missede

Riccarton Race 8 

1.Art De Triomphe is a good 3yo galloper who was going to win a long way out fresh up. He has come back even better this campaign and should get back and bury these. RP $2.20, $2.50 FF 1st $2.80 

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

6.Aricina has been looking for more ground and gets that now fourth up. She showed above average potential last campaign and from the wide draw, should snag back and with an even tempo likely at least, Danielle can get a track into it and prove hard to beat. RP $5, $6.50 Ff

Dangers in order: 7-2-1-9

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

6.Sakura Blossom 1st $3 looked well above average in her trials and was just as impressive on debut. Still does things wrong but just needs a decent run to be the one to beat. RP $2.80, $2.90

Dangers: 2-7-3-9

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5

14.Four Queens  should get the right run and looks ready to fire up fresh up after two good trials. RP $4, $5 FF

Dangers: 5 1st $6 -7-6-4

Race 4

Confidence:2/5

13.Always Sacred has had two runs back and looks ready to peak now. Drawn to get a winning run. RP $5, $6 FF

Dangers in order: 1-9-2-6

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5 for top 2

2.Turn The Ace won his last race really well despite his action saying he needs a slow or worse track to show his best!  So with that on offer on Saturday, and from the good draw, he does look a decent chance of upsetting the favourite, I Wish I Win who is a query on a heavy track, despite being a very good horse. In his recent trial he shared the lead on the outer and wasn’t pushed to run a close fifth. Opened $3.00 and out to $3.50 and likely to drift further with money coming hard for the favourite. He should be a good Top 2 bet but wait till closer to start time as he should drift. RP $2.80, $3.30 FF

Dangers in order: 1-4-9-5

 

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5

3.Cheval Prometteur was at full fitness last start and was just too good. His form on a wet track is terrific with 3 wins and his action says it is ideal for him too. Should lead or be on it and that race fitness will mean he should be able to lead somewhere early in the straight and be too good and fit for these. RP $2.00, $2.40FF

Dangers:

8.Floral Art got back to her best last start on a track that was probably too good for her. So the wetter the better and with the light weight, looks a decent Top 4  chance at around $2.70

5, 6 and 2 to fill the First Four

Race 7

Confidence:2/5

3.Bellaconte 1st $21  is very, very fit and has won here on a slow 8 track and has an ideal wet track action. If the inside is off, she can definitely win.

4.Ima Roca Bee Stiff!   ran home strongly behind Bella Conte after covering a bit more ground. She will relish a heavy track so the more rain the better.

1.Imperatriz  won well fresh up and will have improved a few lengths off that run, but on a heavy track against fit in-form fillies that are very good, she is no $1.90 chance, especially if the inside is off from her inside draw.

 

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

16.Vamos Bebe  is a very good mare and a bit of cut in the track should be ok. Looked good winning her trial and will likely bounce and just look for cover somewhere then bury these late. RP $2.50, $2.50 FF

Dangers in order: 7-8-6-3

 

Race 9

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

The poor run of Avantage in the Foxbridge makes it tricky. She could easily bounce back and win but you just don’t know if she just had too much last campaign and hasn’t come up as well, or the run she got was too much to overcome to do much better. It is the type of race you need to wait till closer to start time so you can see how the track is playing and just how tough the going is.

7.Spring Tide 2nd with a great run  comes in being the fittest horse in the race. He bolted in last start and this is obviously his biggest test so far. But the race sets up nicely for him, with a better than even tempo very likely and if they are coming out centre track to win, then he can be a solid first four chance. Opened $12 after being $21 in the Futures, and has drifted to $14. You would need to wait till you can see how the track is and playing, but he does look the best value for a Top 4 bet which could be around $3 later on.

2.Prise De Fir  ran an ideal race fresh up when he got balanced up late and found the line well. He handles a slow track well and has drawn to get a good run around midfield, so with a good run likely, he looks the best eachway value.

10.Dragon Leap  is a top horse and had a very quiet trial when blocked in the straight but obviously had a few gears to go through.

1.Callsign Mav 1st $3   is ready to repeat his win in this last year.  Has won his last three trials and if the track is a slo7 or better, can win again.

14.Supreme Heights with a good run on pace can hold on for a first 4 slot.

Race 10

Confidence: 2/5

9.Dawn Parade  is a good horse and can be forgiven for that last run. Back to his best second up, in a state he has won twice before, he can beat these. RP $4.50 FF

Dangers: 12-4-7-6

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!