Home » Results » Thursday preview below

Thursday preview below

Otaki

Good morning,

Just 6 races today on a very heavy track with rain forecast on the Heavy 11 track. Sea Star ( $2.50 FF) looks by far the best bet all day. And Lisa Allpress could very easily bookend the day in race 1 on Berry The Cash $2.70 Ff. They should make a good multi. Relda $10 looks the best value bet all day.

Bet of the day Race 6 1.Sea Star $2.50 FF 1st $2.20

Best Multi Race 1 1.Berry The Cash $2.70 and Race 6 1.Sea Star $2.50 Ff $10 returns $67.50 yes

Bonus Multi with the above two and Relda T0p 4 at $2.20 Ff to return $148.50 Almost but they don’t pay out on almost unfortunately!

Value bet of the day Race 4 10.Relda $10 and $2.90

Suggested late quaddie for $12 for 50% Yes Paid $282

R3   5, 7

R4   1, 6, 7, 10

R5   1, 5, 6

R6   1

 

Race 1

Confidence:2/5 1st $2.50 

2.Berry The Cash on debut here did very well when 2nd beating Masso (3rd) and Cholula ( 5th ) who both went on to win impressively. Next up he ran on a better track surface and stuck to 1600m. He ran on well late and the rider said he was looking for more ground. So back on a heavy track with Lisa Allpress up and over 2100m, he does look well placed. RP $2.50, $2.90 FF

Dangers:

5.Demetrias in his last trial ran on strongly late over 1400m with an ideal action for a bog. Unusual for Lisa Latta to debut a horse over a middle distance but he is a strong looking 5yo by Zed.

 

Race 2

Confidence: 3/5

2.Macushla won easily fresh up at Ellerslie then bolted in second up at Avondale, both on Heavy 10 tracks. She also placed 2nd at Ellerslie. Then she went to Australia and ran a good second at her first start there. The money trail will be her guide as she hasn’t been to the last two Levin jumpouts. The early money from $2.20 ff to $2 is an early indication that she is ready. Gets 2kgs off as well. RP $2.00

Dangers:

3.Smartarc won very well on a bog at Awapuni beating two subsequent winners then had a tough run wide last start. Gets 4kgs off this time back on a bog.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

5.Catchouxlater ran two strong races then struck a better surface last start and they went too fast for her. Back on a heavy 11 track with Lisa Allpress up, she looks well placed. RP $3.40

Dangers:

7.Millie Georgia 1st $3.20 was close up in a stronger field fresh up. Blinkers go on from the strong Sharrock stable.

Other thoughts:

1.Teroti is the $2.90 favourite but couldn’t have it based on that debut run and with his action indicating a better surface would suit and lay of the day. Beaten well out and easy money for layers.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

10.Relda won here this time last year on a bog over 2100m. She has run 2nd on  heavy track at Trentham over 1600m in an R65 race. Her last two runs have been over ground so dropping back to 1600m on a bog will suit, especially with 3kgs off. RP $6, $10 Ff

Dangers:

1.Hey Hey Hey hung last start on a better surface- hanging may indicate soreness so that is a query but you wouldn’t think he would start if he was. He beat a handy field here on a similar bog three starts back so has to be in this. Top run two back on a heavy track.

7.Stormy Habit  rates well on a bog and gets 4kgs off.

6.Fattore Otto 1st $6.50 game second here on a bog behind the good Cetus.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

1.Busybeingfabulous 1st $3 strong 3rd here two starts back behind the smart Ladies Man. Firmer track no help fresh up. Gets 3kgs off this time. RP $3

Dangers:

5.Mysally strikes another weak field so could do it.

6.Dee Dee Smash  fitter for fresh up run from the Sharrock stable.

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5

1.Sea Star 1st $2.10  drops out of harder R65 fields and strikes a weak lot here. Game second here two starts back in much stronger R65 race on a bog. Lisa Allpress will be very keen to win on him and there will be no excuses this time. RP $1.90 FF

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!