Update here with two nice head to head bets
Favourites get beaten around 70% of the time so if you can find the ones that do get beaten, you can make a lot of money. Either through laying them on the exchanges or backing another horse or horses in the race to beat them at decent value.
So lets take a look at today’s favourites to see the reasons they can get beaten.
Matamata Favourites Folly
Race 1 Lily D’Or $2.70 was on the minimum last start here when winning and now jumps to 4kgs over it. Will need to do more work from the draw.
Race 2 1.Order To Charge $2.20 on debut on a heavy track with an action more suitable for a better track.
Race 3 4.Mustang Valley second up off a hard run. 4th at only start at 1400m. May land behind midfield off a moderate tempo.
Race 4 14.Super Six action says a better track is needed. Second up.
Race 5 2.Shoshone $2.20 Hasn’t won in 7 starts this campaign. Goes up 5.5kgs from last start.
Race 6 6.Hot Pinx $3.60 best distance has been 1600m. Second up. Wide draw no help.
Race 7 3.Frontman $3.50 Best form on better surfaces.
Race 8 2.Cherry Lane $2.70 Goes up 3.5kgs from last start win here. Got all favours last start.
Race 9 11.Dance ‘N’ Sing steps up to a middle distance first time.
Hawera Favourites Folly
Race 1 8.Amathusia $1.90 : 10 starts for no wins. Second up. Likely to get back on inner.
Race 2 5.Nod Of The Head $3.60: Up in class. Going from 1300m to 1600m. Rates 10th ( finished 11th) after weight adjustments in the Formpro ratings. Maps to land 7th outer in a moderate tempo race. Update after track re-rated to a heavy 10 1.10 p.m. Slow 9 to heavy track won’t suit his action.
Race 3 1.Durham Lad $3.60 Goes from 2kg over the minimum in same class race to 5kgs over. Unplaced on a slow 9 and heavy 10. Got all favours last start win. Second up and beaten in last two campaigns in that state.
Race 4 4.Macushla $3 had her chance last start in an easier field when run down late. 15 starts since last win.
Race 5 7.Trosettee $5.50 35 days since last start so race fitness a query. Inexperienced 4kgs claiming apprentice. Drawn 7 after drawing well last start getting all favours.
Race 6 2.Yeaboi $4 drawn wide and will need luck. 3yo against older experienced horses. Rider has low strike rate and 10 rides since last win.
Race 7 14.Bellaconte $3.60 3yo filly against tough mares. May land behind midfield inner and need luck to get out in time.
Race 8 1.Mauna Loa $4.20 steps up to a middle distance for the first time. Wide draw with 3kg apprentice on with low strike rate.
The best bets are in Australia and every race in NZ is previewed.
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