Update 11.45 a.m.
Favourites Folly for Cambridge
This proved very popular on Saturday where you can see the reasons a favourite can get beaten and which creates very good value on others or laying the horse can be an option on the Exchanges. Beside each horse is the Rated Price ( RP ) which I have estimated are its chances to 100% market followed by its NZ TAB price at around $128% at time of posting.
Race 1 1.Cathay Empress put in two solid placings and third up should be ready to win, but she could land 3 back inner behind a slow pace and as she looks like a mare who needs time to wind up then finish hard, she may be caught out by a sit sprint, so hard to take the $1.70 FF. Needs to jump and trail otherwise she is in trouble. RP $2.50, $1.70 FF
Race 2 11.The Night King strikes a weak field. He drew well when running a close second here two starts back where he got a cosy trail and in a slow speed rating. Drew out last start and worked to get 2nd and battled, so is beatable from a wide draw here. RP $4.50, $3.20 FF
Race 3 6.Floral Belt won strongly here over 2000m then fought hard for third here over 1550m. Drawn to land around midfield behind a strong tempo and come with the last run at them. She has been served and often they improve a few lengths in that early state. negative is she will need luck to clear traffic, especially if she gets well back. RP $3.50, $3.60 FF
Race 4 5.Champagne’s On Megame second last start on a slow track when 3 wide in the open. Drawn well and fitter, so look the main danger- query is the synthetic track as he was ridden out to run second here on it and unplaced in the other run. RP $4.50, $3.80 FF
Race 5 1.Rip Van Gogh has had a few chances. Ran solid second here last start but drawn out and likely to get back so needs the race to go his way to beat the two main dangers. RP $3.90, $2.90 FF
Race 6 3.Waihi Warrior does look a very nice strong horse based on his two trail runs for 3rd and 1st. His last showed he has a very good turn of foot when he extended fast to run down the two leaders late, including race rival Kool Choux. Drawn to get the ideal run just in behind and power over this average midweek maiden field. RP $3, $4 FF
Race 7 4.Rockbank a full brother to 5 win Hankstar in Australia, looks to have the ability and breeding to win a few races. Led all the way to win his trial here but looked green ( 3rd was Alpha Charlie who has won two races since) Then in his last trial had an educational trial when snagged back to last and cruised through them to win easily. Nice looking 4yo who has been given time to mature and looks ready to win on debut over 970m. Negative is he is on debut and inexperience will count against him. RP $2.20, $2.40 FF
Race 8 2.Casper loomed on the turn and fought hard for second to The Actress who won well again next up. Needs a good ride from the draw though. RP $4.50, $4.20 FF
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