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Tuesday preview below

Suggested late quaddie at Flemigton for $19.20 for 10%
R7   127
R8    1011
R9   2467891314
R10   461014

Update 11.40 a.m.

Suggest multi of the day Helsinki to win $1.80 and Twilight Payment $1.60 H2h to beat Verry Ellegant $28.80 for $10

Good morning,

A great day of racing coming up. I’ll update the selections by noon.

Bet of the day Te Rapa Race 1 7.Helsinki $1.80 FF

Value bet of the day Te Rapa Race 2 11.Just Dance $7.50  1st $9

Best double figure bet Twilight Payment $13 in the Melbourne Cup

Melbourne Cup

Race 7 5.00 p.m.

Confidence: 3/5

1.Twilight Payment  won this last year in very fast time of 3.17.4, the second fastest since 2000. Yes, he goes up to 58kgs but he has drawn to get out well, as he did last year, and either lead early or work round to it by the end of the first bend. He is in better form than he was going into it last year. He is going to make it a real staying test as that is the way to beat favourite Incentivise as his breeding suggests he is vulnerable at 3200m and from his wide draw, will have to do extra work early, especially if it is truly run, which it will be. So he is a great eachway chance at $11 and $3.50.

Dangers: 

2.Incentivise  has been winning and winning like a top class horse. But this is 3200m and it will be a fast run race. Drawn wide and will have to do extra work, plus his breeding says he will struggle to see out a fast run 3200m. so I just couldn’t take that price of $2.70 because of those three things.

7.Delphi will get the right run and just did too much work in the Caulfield Cup and didn’t like the soft track.

 

 

Te Rapa 

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5

7.Helsinki has rated very strongly against better horses and won a recent jumpout at Ellerslie very well. Ready to win fresh up and drawn to get every chance against an average lot. RP $1.60, $1.80 FF

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

11.Just Dance is by Tavistock out of a the very good mare, Stolen Dance ( 10 wins) She looked very good in her Te Rapa trial win when bouncing well and relaxing nicely with her head down. Then she really showed a will to race and win holding out a couple of challengers. Drawn to get a good run with Vinnie Colgan suiting her. RP $5, $7.50 FF

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

2.River Run ran a strong second in a better field last start. Goes well here and drops in class with a good draw to help negate the 60kgs. RP $3.80, $4.50 FF

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5

4.Concert Hall  wasn’t suited by the wet track last start but still ran on nicely. Looked in need of it too so at EWFA against an average lot, she should beat them. RP $2.40, $2.70 FF

Race 7  

Confidence: 3/5 but confidence levels will be determined by how good the track is.

11.Tellall looks nicely placed here on 54kgs. He was a dominant winner at Hastings last start when he got a good run and was too good. He will be even fitter for this and maps to get out and get a good run about 3rd or 4th again in a moderately run race. He does have a dry track action and his best form is all on Good and Dead tracks. It is currently a Slow 7 with a likely upgrade with the fine day forecast. So if they are ran 1.11 or better in the R65 1200m spring in race 4 he is worth a bet, otherwise I would pass on him. RP $3.50, $4 FF

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

8.Real Slim Tradie  looked very good in his first two runs back. The first winning strongly and the second start was beaten by a slow tempo charging late for second. Then last start got all favours and didn’t quite kick on as expected for a fighting third. It was a Good track then and the trainer did express concern before the race that he may need the sting out iof it. He gets that today and he is a very nice galloper with a terrific action. Drawn wide but there looks to be plenty of early speed. He does have tactical speed so if Kate can get him out and in with cover by the end of the back straight, he can get over these. RP $4.80, $6 FF

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

9.Graciano ran a close second last start on a slow 8 track. She has  dry track action and she won a Dead 5 track at Matamata in 1.38. Peaking now and drawn to get a winning run. RP $5, $6 FF

Race 10

Confidence:3/5

9.Isla Jay is a nice galloper who was a a bit stiff last start after working clear a few strides too late and came hard for a close third and was in front soo after the post. She has early speed and should be able to land in a good spot and and with the 3kgs off looks well placed now to win fourth up. RP $3.80, $4.50 FF

Wingatui

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

7.The Gift  has won four times here and is peaking third up. This is her toughest test but she maps to get a winning run and gives it everything when she gets in a fight. RP $5, $7 FF

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!