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Saturday 13 November preview below

Update 9 a.m. Saturday. The forecast is for only 4mm of rain to fall by 1 p.m. and clear this afternoon. That is a change from 13mm+ from yesterday’s forecast.

The Heads Up $20 multi that Aaron won this week on Heads Up is Riccarton Riccarton race 3 12.Platinum Spirit $1.70 place $1.70 into Race 4 3.Kopua to win at $4 to return $136 Yes

 

Bet of the day Riccarton Race 4 3.Kopua $4 FF 1st $2.70

Value bet of the day Riccarton race 3 12.Platinum Spirit $5 FF 2nd $1.40 

Best double figure bets: 

Tauranga Race 1 4.Macros $11 and $3.30 Ff

Riccarton Race 10 15.Mondorani $15 and $4.50 Ff 1st $22.60 and $5.20

Riccarton Park Race 5 11.Final Savings $18 and $5 FF 3rd $5.70

The GOAT’s best sports bet all weekend is today in the Rugby, Taranaki -16.5 $1.87 to beat Southland at 2.05 p.m. tipped out on Heads Up.

Suggested late quaddie at Riccarton for $30 for 10%

R9    348101213
R10   2561518
R11   13569
R12   711

Race 3

The speed map shows Bully Boy getting a softish lead and and maybe Wannabe ‘N’ Paris keeping him honest. Platinum Spirit looks set to get a cosy run in behind.

Confidence: 3/5 2nd $1.40

12.Platinum Spirit  looked like she had won on Wednesday but lost it in the photo. She drew wide in that and was caught 3 wide until she had to work to get 2nd outer1800m out, so it was an excellent effort. Lisa Latta doesn’t back them up unless they are 100%, so up in class, but dropping to 54kgs, from a good draw, Lisa Allpress will give her a winning trip and they look a solid eachway bet fourth up at her peak. Has won on a heavy track so any rain ok.  RP $4.50, $6.50 and $2.10 FF. Now$5.50 FF Saturday 8 a.m.

Race 4

The speed map shows a strong tempo.

Confidence:3/5

3.Kopua 

Last Saturday here, with 300m to go he was looking for a gap. Then 200m out he got out but even though he charged for second in the best last 200m of 11.75, he ran out of race track. He maps to get a good run around midfield with a decent tempo up front and a wet track is no concern from the Dummy Myers stable. RP $2.80, $4.50 FF 1st $2.70

Race 5

The speed map shows plenty of pace suiting an off pace runner.

Confidence: 2/5  3rd $5.70 after being held up.

11.Final Savings  fresh up got back and ran home strongly late in the best L800, 600 and 400, and 2nd best L200m. From the top Parsons stable and looks a race within his grasp with Sarah McNab up and the strong tempo likely up front, which will alow him to wind up and hopefully swamp them late at good odds. RP $$10, $18 and $5 FF

Race 7

The speed map shows good early speed and an even tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

11.Ucalledit  won very strongly on Saturday in a time that indicates he is certainly up to Open company. He maps to get an ideal run and any rain won’t hurt. From the top Myers stable. RP $4, $5 FF 1st $2.20 

Race 8

The speed map shows four runners looking to get on the lead or close to it and in the big field, at least an even tempo likely.

Confidence:3/5 Missed with the inside being off.

2.Bellacontte  ticks a few boxes here. She has won against older horses. Very good 4th at WFA two starts back beating Concert hall who almost won a Group race next up. She rates on top after weight adjustments. Any rain will only enhance her chances and decrease other favoured runners. Trainer Chrissy Bambry is confident she has her at her peak for this. races as though she will relish 1600m. Drawn to get back and with a decent tempo likely, can get through the gaps easier and looks very well placed to win. RP $4, $7.50 and $2.50 and likely to shorten if the forecast rain comes.

Race 9 First leg of the $50 Guaranteed quaddie

The speed map shows an even speed.

Confidence: 1/5

The $2.40 favourite 3.Sacred Giant is certainly beatable after having his chances and placing. Drawn out and will have to do more work. 4.Fastmosa  two strong seconds and drawn ideally and any rain ok. 13.Vardon Road easily beat Royce Roca who won here last Saturday- peaking at the right time and a Dead track is ideal. 12.So Dusty got all favours last start but won well and 1400m is ideal now with Kozzi up from an ideal draw. 8.Avaquinella  good run last start and ready to win but has a wide gate to overcome. 10.Pearl Davone  has been rating ok in stronger fields and is an upsetter.

Race 10

The speed map shows a moderate tempo suiting runners in the first but that could easily change if wide runners go forward.

Confidence:1/5  1st $22 and $5 

15.Mondorani  came home strongly late along the fence last week. Relaxes beautifully and can upset. 5.Beaudz Well  also ran a top 2nd here last week and the GOAT is confident he can win. 6.Lincoln King  looks primed for a win and ran a close second in this last year. Wouldn’t want too much aqua though. 2.Dee And Gee  won this two years ago then had a tough run last year and faded out. Drawn to get a good run. 18.Khafeef  won stylishly two back and was a bit stiff here last week. Looks an ideal 3200m type from the Myers stable.

Race 11

Confidence:1/5

9.Colossal is one big brute of a horse and if any horse can win backing up 7 days he can. Good time and should lead again and be tough to run down. 3.Exchange is a nice horse and peaking nicely.  6.Hes A Doozy  good horse and won strongly last start. 5.My World strong second last start and very fit now. 1.Cetus  could get a good run in the trail and be an upset chance from there third up.

Race 12

Confidence: 3/5

7.Mister Reliable did very well here last Saturday when he got too far back and was held up in the straight but charged late for fifth in the best last 200m. he is bred to run over a middle distance and a wet track is no concern nor the wide draw as the inside is likely to off by this race. Rates on top in the Formpro Ratings. RP $3.50, $5.50 and $2.10 FF

Danger: 

11.Savezar  ran home fast last start here and has won over 2200m, so the 2000m looks ideal now.

Tauranga

Race 1

The speed map shows three runners going forward and it usually favours on pace runners early on.

Confidence: 2/5

4.Macros  rates on top in the ratings and maps to get every chance in an average maiden field with 4kgs off. RP $7, $11 FF and $3.30 place

Race 5

The speed map shows Rua Rocks likely to get a soft lead.

Confidence: 2/5

4.Rua Rocks  showed a real will to win last start and although up in class, maps to get a soft lead and being very fit, should prove hard to run down. Any rain ok. RP $4, $5.50 FF

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!