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Saturday preview below 20 November

Update 8.55 a.m. Not a good day. 

Good morning,

Decent weather tracks at both NZ venues today. I’ve found a few good confidence bets – some at value, some not.

Len, who won the $20 multi from Heads Up last week has Real Slim Tradie Top 3 $2.10, Cheaperthandivorce Top 2 $1.70, Two Illicit Top 2 $1.50  to return $107.10. Good luck Len.

Bet of the day Te Rapa Race 8 2.Two Illicit $2.70 FF 3rd

Value bet of the Day Race 2 8.Real Slim Tradie $5.50 FF

Speed map special Te Rapa race 7 5.Cheaperthandivorce $2.90 FF 3rd

The GOAT’s best sports bet is Taranaki -4.5 v Otago 2.05 p.m. Saturday $1.87  Yes

Early Saturday preview. Next update by 9 a.m. Saturday

Te Rapa 

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

2.Joy Alone  is third up now and up to a distance she will relish. The plus is Opie jumps on and the negatives are it is her first go over ground this campaignh and she maps to get back and rely on at least an even tempo, which may not be there. RP $3.50, $3.20 FF

Race 2

The early speed map shows a good tempo and should suit all runners.

Confidence: 3/5

8.Real Slim Tradie put in a huge run here last start when caught 4 and 5 wide in the open and still fought hard for third alongside Miss Aotearoa who had every chance. He is a very nice actioned galloper who has shown the ability to win a few more races. Drawn to get every chance as he has early tactical speed, and get over these in the last 50 metres. RP $4, $6.50 FF Friday, Now $5.50 FF

Race 4

The speed map shows plenty of early speed across the field so a solid tempo suiting off pace runners.

 

Confidence: 3/5

5.Malt Time  charged late after getting clear too late here fresh up. Her sectionals were very good and she won second up last campaign. The key is the strong tempo speed map where there will be plenty of pressure early and solid after that, so the wide draw may help so she can snag back and get to the outer when she wants and charge over these with Danielle Johnson on board. RP $3.00, $4.20 FF

Race 7

The speed map shows an even speed.

Confidence: 3/5

5.Cheaperthandivorce  may well be the star of the summer the way she has won her first two races back from a spell. She was very unlucky in the Oaks when held up and only really balanced up late charging for fourth around very good fillies. She maps to settle behind midfield but with at least an even tempo, Danielle will be able to get her out and going so she can use that very strong last 200 metres to best effect. RP $2.60, $2.90 FF

Race 8

The speed map shows good early speed out wide and a few underneath them who will looks to get into good positions, so fast early and at least even suiting off pace runners.

Confidence:3/5

2.Two Illicit  showed real class winning fresh up winning in fast time and ran the best last 600m 33.87 and last 200m 11.09 all day. The map says they won’t be dawdling in this so watch for her to get back and storm over these. RP $2.20, $2.70 FF

Awapuni

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

9.Lincoln’s Kruz  was a dominant winner last start in a good speed rating. Yes, he got all favours but had plenty in hand on the line. Drawn to get an ideal run and fourth up should be right at his peak. RP $4.50, $6 FF

Race 7

Confidence:3/5

6.Balalaika three starts back rated FR104 then last start second up here from a wide draw got back and was stuck 3 wide in the open and improved in the open when they were going hard. So to get up for second in the best closing sectionals was an excellent effort. She is peaking third up here and from the good draw she can settle midfield or just behind it and with a solid tempo likely, she just needs the gaps at the right time. RP $4, $6 FF

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!