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Saturday 22 January preview below

Ellerslie next update by 1 p.m. Saturday

Ellerslie scratchings aren’t finalised until 12.30 p.m. with the late start, so an update will be posted by 1 p.m.

Barry’s multi from Heads Up is Babylon Berlin $2.70 into Fellini Top 3 $2.40 FF to return $129.60 Yes

Hard to see any double figure upsets here and Te Akau have strong hands in most races.

Fellini looks the best value at $6 FF.

Bet of the Day Ellerslie Race 5 3.Babylon Berlin $2.70 FF 1st $2.50 

Value bet of the Day Ellerslie Race 4 1.Fellini $6.50 FF  3rd $1,90

Trentham

Race 7

Confidence:2/5

3.Dalmatia 2nd was a  strong winner two starts back at New Plymouth then just went down to the smart Bentayga last start over 2100m. He gives every impression 2400m will suit now. Drawn the rail and gets 2kgs off, so should get every chance. RP $3.80, $4.20 FF

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

9.Chase  out in a big run last start from back in the field from a wide draw. His closing sectionals were excellent. That is two runs back from a short break now so will be at his peak. Drawn to land in a winning position this time, and although up in class, he is down to a winning weight. RP $4.50, $5 FF

Race 1

The speed map shows Sagunto and Tiptronic on a moderate tempo. The small field should suit all runners.

 

Confidence: 2/5

5.Rapid Falls 1st $3.60 FF  was very unlucky here last start in a quality race for the best progressive stayers in the country. She gets in here on 54kgs, the lightest weight she has ever carried, and the small field will allow her to just bide her time and get the last go at them. Leith Innes wouldn’t get down to this weight unless he felt it was worth it as well. RP $3.50, $4.20 FF

Dangers:

1.Tiptronic  looks the obvious danger but gives good weight away despite the allowance.

Race 2

The speed map shows good speed

Confidence: 3/5

1.Amarelinha  gets in here very well at the weights for what she has achieved. She should be able to land around 3 back inner and Opie will get her out at the right time to explode on these. RP $2.20, $2.70 FF

Dangers: 

5.Jodelin Girl  won easily here last start but Amarelinha is a much harder mare to keep out.

Race 3

The speed map shows plenty of speed and

Confidence: 3/5

1.Sword Of State 1st $2.60   is a very good horse who had a tough run fresh up in Australia and then faced two strong fields in Group races. He is capable of top class closing sectionals and if he can lead and get a softish time, he should prove too fast down the straight. RP $2.40, $2.70 FF

Dangers:

3.Imperatriz  2nd $1.50  can run fast times and looks the main danger.

Race 4

The speed map shows plenty of early speed across the track ensuring a solid tempo.

1.Fellini  3rd $1.90   impressed last start when he settled nicely behind the speed and drove home strongly to win easing down in a very good speed rating. The better tempo here will help even more and he should get an ideal run and be right at his peak to get over them. RP $4, $6 FF

Dangers: 

6.Dynastic 1st $2.60 FF  has some vital gear changes to get a few lengths improvement out of him which he needs to show to beat Fellini. Opie had the choice so you have to respect that.

Race 5

The speed map shows Babylon Berlin crossing and sliding to the lead with a chance she could be able to back off before the turn.

Confidence: 3/5

3.Babylon Berlin 1st $2.50 although drawn wide, with a clean beginning can cross and lead these and may be able to back off before the turn increasing her chances. She is a very good mare and is weighted nicely to lead these all the way. RP $2.20, $2.70 FF

Dangers:

5.Festivity  2nd $1.40 qu $4.20  has drawn an ideal gate to get all favours and looks the main danger.

Race 6

The speed map shows plenty of early speed across the track ensuring a solid tempo.

Confidence:4/5

1.On The Bubbles only a bad ride from Opie could undo her chances here. At level weights he rates 4 lengths clear of these and is third up and peaking for this. RP $1.50, $1.60 FF

Dangers: 

15.Miss Ella  was a big winner last start and is right at her peak for this. Drawn to get all favours.

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!