Saturday preview below

 

Good morning,

There are a few showers about at Ellerslie on the Dead 5 track but it shouldn’t effect it too much.

Bet of the day Invercargill Race 7 1.Palmetto $1.80 FF 1st $1.90

Value bet of the Day Ellerslie Race 7 2.Tutukaka $6 FF

Palmetto $1.80 FF at Invercargill looks the best placed runner all weekend. Tutukaka $6 FF in the Avondale Guineas is a very good horse and ready to win.

Ellerslie suggested late quaddie for $18 for 30%

R5   1, 4, 12

R6   4, 5

R7   2, 12

R8   3, 5, 6, 7, 10

Ellerslie

Race 1

Confidence:2/5 1st $4.90 

8.Lickety Split  looked good winning her trial here when bouncing to the lead from out wider, sat 2nd outer, led in the straight and won well. Her dam, She’s Slinky, won over 1100m on debut. RP $3.00, $3.20 FF

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5 1st $4.10 

3.Bonny Lass is racing very well. Her win here in R74 company was very strong and she had a tough run next up but stuck on well.  She is very fit and stronger this campaign. So she should get every chance from the good draw and is very well placed to win again. RP $$3.00, $3.80 Ff

Danger:

13.Not Guilty  ran a strong second at Trentham last start. Fit and from a good draw, should get every chance and right handed may suit better.

Race 3

The speed map shows good early speed and at least an even tempo.

Confidence:2/5

6.Riding The Wave should get the strong tempo up front that he needs to get over these. He has drawn to get back on the rail but with that strong tempo very likely, he can get the gaps when he wants and beat these. RP $6, $8 FF

Dangers:

12.Iconic Star  game third here last start and drawn to get a good run. Lighter weight will help as well.

 

Race 4

Confidence:3/5

2.Our Hail Mary  has always looked like 2400m would suit her. She has had an excellent lead up to it and even though she is having her first start right handed, Allan Sharrock will have made sure she has been well schooled, so with the light weight, she can get over these. RP $2.80, $3.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Concert Hall is the class horse of the race and even though she is on 59kgs, is still fairly well off in the weights.

10.The Bounder  will relish 2400m and is an upset chance.

Race 5

Confidence:2/5 1st $5.10 

1.Funtonic  hit the line hard late here for second last start and is peaking now. The step to 1500m suits ideally and he can win now. RP $4, $4.80 Ff

Dangers: 

4.Giant Gem ran a close 4th here two starts back and didn’t seem happy in the ground last start. Goes bets here too.

Race 6

Confidence:2/5

5.Mach Schnell was a convincing winner here last start and although the weight swing favours Gee Cee, he has drawn ideally and the 1600m should suit now. RP $5, $7 FF

Dangers:

4.Gee Cee is the main danger and relaxes well.

Race 7

Confidence:2/5

2.Tututaka  has won two races in Australia including the Listed Geelong Classic over 2200m. The way he closed off here last start in  fast run 1600m, shows he is right on track to win now. RP $4.70, $6 FF

Dangers:

12.The Perfect Pink did very well off an on pace race last start. Drawn to get all favours and be right in this.

Race 8

Confidence:3/5 1st $3.40 

7.Pinarello is a nice horse and looks and has been looking for a decent surface. She closed off nicely last start and 2100m suits ideally now. RP $3.00, $3.60 FF

Dangers:

3,Fast Willie  was a dominant winner last start and has drawn to get a winning run.

10.Rising Road  won really well last start at Ruakaka. gets 2kgs off and with a good ride, is right in this.

6.Ess Vee Are has always looked a promising middle distance type and showed that with a strong win in maiden company last start. Has to be in quaddies as he has upside.

Invercargill

Race 7 

Confidence: 3/5 1st $1.90 

1.Palmetto  was a dominant winner last start stepping up to 1500m. The step to 1600m will suit even better and at set weights, looks a class above these again. Any rain will only enhance his chances.  RP $1.50, $1.80 FF