Home » Results » Saturday 5 March preview below

Saturday 5 March preview below

Ellerslie

Bet of the Day Ellerslie Race 10 1.Zeitaku $2.50 FF 2nd 

Value bet of the day Ellerslie Race 6 7.Outfit $6 FF

Suggested multi of the day Race 8 1.Sword Of Estate $2.10 1st $2  and Race 10 1.Zeitaku $2.50 FF $10 returns $52.50

Big multi is the two above with Race 6 7.Outfit for Top 3 $2.20, Race 8 1.Sword Of Estate $2.10 and Race 10 1.Zeitaku $2.50 FF.  $10 returns $115.50 FF

Early quaddie suggested bet for $12 for 50%

R2   610
R3   169
R4   34
R5   211

Late quaddie suggested bet for $18 for 100%

R7   5910
R8   167
R9   713
R10   1

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

7.Pahi Lass  looked good winning here two starts back then had a very tough run next up. Gets the right draw to get a winning run and with 4kgs off, should get her chance to get over these. RP $5, $6 FF

Dangers: 

2.Withallmyheart strong third here last start off a wide run.

5.Rochmie Ray  tough run last start. Drawn to get all favours this time.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

10.Spirit Of Baz  looks the logical one but there is one horse that can beat her.

6.Starrybeel rates on top after adjustments. Can win.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

1.Pris De Fer 1st $2.70  rates 2 lengths clear after weight adjustments. No standout though as he hasn’t won since he won this race last year.

9.Tellall  racing very well and from the good draw should get a winning run.

6.The Buzz good win in December and and not much luck last start. Rates well.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

3.Bonny Lass got all favours last start but won strongly and in fast time. She just seems stronger now and the 1400m should be ok now. Has early speed so can get into a winning spot from her wide draw and be a solid eachway chance. RP $4, $4.50 FF

4.I Wish I Win  is a very good horse and looks the main danger. Fixed quinella with 3 and 4 is $9.50 FF

1.On The Bubbles  is beatable based on his recent trial where he was scrubbed and outfinished for 4th.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

11.Stringline  ran a strong closing third here two back and had a tough run here last start. She is a nice mare and with a decent run from the wide draw, she can beat these with the light weight. RP $7, $11 Ff

Dangers:

2.Funtonic  was going to win well out here last start. Looks up to R74 class and drawn ideally.

 

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5

7.Outfit  closed off very strongly in top sectionals with a beautiful action last start. The step back to a middle distance looks ideal and from the good draw, she should get a good run and get her chance to get over these. RP $4.00, $6.00 FF

Race 7 First leg of the $100k guaranteed quaddie.

Confidence: 2/5

10.Malt Time  closed off hard last start here over 1100m in the best closing sectionals. The speed map shows a solid tempo which will suit him and he gets 2kgs off this time. RP $5, $6 FF

5.Johny Johny 1st $7  is a good horse and if he can lead as the speed map says he can, he could take some catching.

9.Navalha  good horse and from a good draw can’t be left out.

Race 8

Confidence: 3/5

1.Sword Of Estate 1st $2   was impressive winning here last start in fast time with his big weight easily beating Imperatriz. He looked like he would definitely improve with that run. From the wide draw he will begin well and should slide over 3rd or 4th outer and get the last go at Babylon Berlin who will be vulnerable late to the stronger Sword Of State at the weights. Babylon Berlin can be tardy at the start and from the inside, she wouldn’t want to do that. RP $1.80, $2.20 FF

Danger:

7.Tevere  should have the drop on them and if they go too hard, could do it.

6.Babylon Berlin  would need to bounce one of her better bounces at the start. If she does and leads, they could it off her and alllow her to reserve enough to repel the late surges.

Race 9

Confidence:3/5 The best bet here is the quinella with 7 and 13 currently paying $3 Fixed. It should pay more closer to start time.

13.La Crique  does look very well placed from the inside to either lead or get a soft trail. There doesn’t look an obvious leader and she is likely to lead and hand up midrace. From there, she has to be the one to beat. The negative are she has had some hard racing and they don’t keep going for ever. She may take a trail behind the wrong horse and get held up at crucial moments from the 800m. RP $1.80, $1.85

Dangers:

7.Pinarello is the only horse I can see beating La Crique. He bolted in here last start running an 11.55 last 200m which was the quickest of any winner all day and it was over 2100m, plus he was easing down . The step to 2400m is only going to enhance his chances. He seems to settle ok on a moderate tempo which is important for this. If things go wrong for La Crique or Jonathan Riddell sees she is getting a soft time in the lead, he is very likely to get out and lead or sit outside her and put the pressure on as he won’t beat her in a sit sprint. He is very likely to drift from $3.80Ff and could be worth backing to win closer to start time and save on La Crique.

Race 10

Confidence:3/5

1.Zeitaku  looked impressive running second to Miss Cartier who won again next up. The 1400m looks ideal. Needs the breaks from the indie draw but doe look too good for these with even luck. RP $1.90, $2.50 FF

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!