Update 10.19 No further bets.
At the last meeting here on March 25 on a similar Heavy 8 track where they were running 1.13 to 1.14 for 1200m, they were coming away from the fence by race 5 where Vishaka and the second horses came from back and wide. But in race 8, La Flora Belle drew 1 , trailed off the rail, came wider and won easily. So as long as you are fit and good enough, you can win from anywhere.
I’ll post an update by noon if there any other bets like head to heads.
Bet of the day Race 7 6.Ideal $2.50 FF 1st $2.50
Value bet of the day Race 6 1.Shockproof $5 FF 1st $4
Multi of the Day Race 2 6.Luxuriant $2.10 Ff into Race 6 1.Shockproof Top 3 $1.85 and Race 7 6.Ideal $2.50 FF $10 returns $97.10 Yes
Suggested late quaddie for $19.20 for 30% Yes paid $138
R4 1, 8, 11, 12
R5 2, 3, 4, 5
R6 1, 2, 4, 12
The speed map shows He’s Ric likely to get an uncontested lead.
Confidence:2/5 in a race where the moderate tempo could be the main factor in the outcome.
1.Bak Da Master last start second up had to move early wide in the open then was taken wider on the turn. He kept up a solid gallop to run an improver’s third. He maps to get out and get 2nd outer on a moderate tempo which will be ideal. With 3kgs off and Mark Walker really making his mark with getting horses to peak strongly, third up on the flat with 3kgs off, he ticks a few boxes here. RP $2.80, $3.80FF
4.Khafeef raced a bit keenly last start and that told 200m out. He is likely not to lead this time with stablemate He’s Ric likely to lead, he is a better horse chasing and with cover and if he settles better, he looks the one but at $2.50 is a bit short with three other Myers runners in.
6.He’s Ric led all the way last start and should get his own way in front. If Myers has kept him up to the mark, he could be hard to run down with 2kgs off.
3.Botti ran on nicely last start and IF HE IS 100% fit he could easily win this.
6.Luxuriant has looked very good in her two trial wins. The first being handy and winning with a bit in hand. Then in her last one, got stuck in the gates, lost 6 lengths, tailed them, looped them and won easing down. Her last 600m was in 34.09 and Meritable, who was ridden out to win the Open heat when on better ground in heat 3, ran home in 34.28. So that’s a good comparison t but should handle the ground. She has the breeding and looks stronger now. Drawn ideally and gets 1kg off, plus she should be a few lengths in front of main rival Bionda on the turn ( as long as she begins as she can do). RP $1.90, $2.10 FF
8.Bionda has cost punters plenty after being slow away. The blinkers go on third up which is always a good combo. But she will need to begin better and be closer to Luxuriant on the turn to beat her.
The speed map shows good speed from Thatz Daisy with Queen Of Spades maybe kicking up early to hold her out or may elect to trail.
Tricky race with 5 fresh up runners out of the 8 runners. The betting will tell you which ones are ready and which aren’t. Good race to watch.
1.Thomas Aquinas won fresh up last campaign when Thatz Daisy set an even tempo off the back of two trial placings. He gets 4kgs off and the small field will help in the last 100 metres. Maybe more of an eachway bet or place bet in a tricky field with no trial or jumpout form this time- betting may indicate if he is ready or not. RP $5
Race 4 First leg of the quaddie
11.Perfect Posy ran a solid second last start to a nice horse and should be peaking third up now. Likely to get back but should handle the ground.
12.The Witch has been going nice races without much luck in running. Drawn to get a good run and gets 2kgs off.
1.Crackerjack ran a distant second to a good horse in Manifique last start and just held on for second. Drawn well which is a nice advantage over the main rivals.
8.Kirraconi has had a few goes and was under a ride to run a distant third in a recent trial.
3.Lightning Field beat a good horse in One More Time at Te Rapa on a Soft track. Good run next up at Ellerslie in a stronger field. Had a bad day next up. Freshened up and gets 1kg off. Should get a good run. RP $2.50 and the money trail will indicate his chances. RP $2.60, $2.70 FF
2.Invisible Spirit ran a nice close fifth in a recent trial. Should lead and be hard to run down with Lisa Allpress trying to get a cheap lead.
4.White Lightning ran 2nd in a recent Levin Jumpout and from the Auret stable with 53kgs, has to be a chance.
5.Keen To Run maps to get a good run and rates well.
1.Shockproof did well last start when caught 3 wide in the open and just went down with a gap to the rest. Drawn to get a better run and be the one to beat with promising rider Lily Sutherland on board. RP $3.50 , $4.50 FF
2.Waipapa ran an improver’s second last start and will be peaking now and qualifies for the Pearl Bonus for this.
12.Principessa has had two runs back and should be ready now. Has run some good races when things have gone against- wet track is a query though.
4.Oh To Be has run some good races but has had a few goes. Has got a tongue tie going on and from the good draw, could be the upsetter.
The speed map shows Indy Fox leading out from wide and a moderate tempo likely.
6.Ideal won impressively two starts back over 1400m beating two subsequent winners including Dream Machine who won his maiden and R65 races at his next two starts. Then last start travelled well but the winner, El Vencedor was just too good and well but she ran on as though 1600m is what she needs now. Drawn to get a good run with Lisa up and by this time of day, she will have worked out the best place to be in the straight. RP $2.40
9.Ginger Snapz won really well for us last start and the time was good compared to the R65 race but that R65 race was run at a slower tempo so could be misleading. This is harder.
8.Finest Wine ran home nicely for third at Ruakaka but looks like she needs more than 1600m to be backed with confidence.