Good morning. Some nice fields at Te Rapa and I’ve spent all of my time analysing them with the help of the improved Formpro Ratings and speed maps ( Quite a few backed Light Up $44 at Riccarton on Thursday after being top rated ) . Leave me out of Trentham with the Heavy 10 rating meaning little as we just have no idea if it is a 1.14 heavy or a 1.20 or slower track for 1200m, so best to just stay clear until you can see how it is playing. Even Tavattack is a query on a very heavy track.
Bet of the day Te Rapa Race 4 1.Wewillrock $2.40 and is a Bonus Back bet up to $50 1st $2.20
Value bet of the day Te Rapa race 2 10.Candycane $4.20 and is a Bonus back bet up to $50
Multi of the day Race 3 6.Swiss Kitty $2.40 Bonus Back bet up to $50 and Race 4 1.Wewillrock $2.40 and is a Bonus Back bet up to $50 so put the bet on Swiss Kitty first and if 2nd, 3rd or 4th, put the bonus bet on Wewillrock. Yes returned around $57 for $10
Suggested late quaddie for $33 for 10%
R5 7, 12
R6 3, 6, 8
R7 1, 3, 6, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 16, 17, 18
R8 2, 3, 6, 9, 13
Speed maps courtesy of the improved Formpro Ratings
The speed map shows an even tempo is likely suiting all runners
8.Logan’s Logic has been carrying big weights ( 60,69, 68kgs ) in his last three starts, so he is going to feel the weight relief with the drop to 53kgs. He was unlucky last start when travelling well but was held up. Up in class but that weight relief combined with a good ride from the wide draw, makes him an upset chance. RP $6, $8 FF
The speed map shows a good tempo suiting all runners.
10.Candycane on debut was travelling well but was held in a pocket till too late and fought on ok for 5th when clear. Then second up drew wide and snagged to last and ran on strongly wide in the best last 600m and 200m. Fitter now and should handle the conditions well. Drawn to land in a winning position. RP $4, $4.50 FF
The speed map shows plenty of speed up front so likely to suit a closer.
6.Swiss Kitty fresh up closed off hard late for third after he didn’t like the kickback and got his head up. This time he has drawn wide, with plenty of early speed inside him, so Grylls will very likely let him find a position even 3 wide with cover to get out of the way of most kick back, get him settled then let him unleash his powerful late finish. He won second up last campaign and looks set to do the same. RP $3.30, $3.60
The speed map shows an even speed suiting all runners.
1.Wewillrock is a very nice strong galloper who ran a strong third here in a very good speed rating and rated an FR105 ( Formpro Rating) from a wide draw. which was 4 lengths better than any of these. He has to improve off that and the visor blinkers come off and the blinkers go on. Should get an ideal trip this time and be very hard to beat. RP $1.90, $2.40 FF
The speed map shows early speed from inside and out wider and a few in between, so a decent tempo suiting closers may be favoured.
12.Marcella closed off hard late fresh up in strong sectionals and her best FR. She won second up last campaign and looks stronger now. Maps to get back but the good tempo and 1300m will suit. RP $5
7.Encierro good run here last start and very impressive fresh up. 1300m will suit as well as a solid tempo.
The speed map shows a good speed suiting off pace runners.
3.Helena Baby closed off strongly here fresh up and the extra 100m will help. Rated very strongly before his injury and a wet track holds no fears. RP $3.50
6.Mega Bourbon is an obvious chance.
8.Thunder has been up a while but seems to thrive on it. Two best FRs in his last two starts so with the light weight is right in this.
The speed map shows a moderate tempo suiting runners in the first half of the field.
Confidence:1/5 in an open race
10.Blood Diamond 1st $8 peaking now after a strong second last start. Gets in on a nice weight. RP $5
In order: 6-3-13-12-18-4
The speed map shows a slow tempo suiting on pace runners.
6.Just Dance was putting in her best work near the line and past it fresh up. Well bred mare and 1600m with a light weight looks ideal now. RP $4
2.Deep Beauty did very well to run third here last start after having the toughest run 3 wide on the pace. May get a soft time on the pace this time.
3.Sonofabutcher game second here last start. gets in on a nice weight and fitter now.
9.Jackalnuts good win last start and has upside.
13.Vistown had to be good to win off the moderate tempo last start. Looked handy before then so a wide draw may be an asset by this time of day.