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Wednesday preview 20 July below

Update: 10.55

Head to Head 

Two well placed H2H bets below

Race 2

Confidence: 3/5

Te Atatu Memphis RP $1.40, $1.80 FF to beat Kate Valour Yes

Te Atatu Memphis has strong form over middle distances and was a strong finishing second last start over 2200m. He has an ideal action for a slog. Kate Valour however has not started beyond 1600m and rates 4 lengths below Te Atatu Memphis. Te Atatu Memphis has a much more experienced rider on too.

Race 4

Confidence:3/5

Treat Dapainter RP $1.30, $1.85 to beat Madiran Yes 

Treat Dapainter has an ideal action for a slog in the bog. She was just beaten at Pukekohe and then was beaten by a better track and better horses than these at its next two starts. He raced at Cambridge on the all weather and was simply outpaced. On the other hand, Madiran has an action ideally suited to a better track and should find the last 200m too much of a slog.

$10 multi returns $33.30 Yes

Avondale

A true Heavy 10+ with plenty of rain over the last few days so it will be real slog. I’ve gone for three race fit horses that all should handle it ok. The rail is out 7.5m which means they are likely to get out wide later on and inside draws will become a disadvantage. But we won’t know until the race. So all we can do is wait and see. I’ll post an update by 11.45 if there are any head to head bets. They are often the best bet with just two horses to work out the form on. If you can find value then it is a good bet.

Bet of the Day Avondale Race 1 3. Late To The Party $2.80 FF

Value bet of the Day Avondale Race 7 4.Dreamforce $4.00 FF

Multi of the day is the above two to win – $10 returns $111.20

Race 1

Confidence:3/5

3. Late To The Party ran two strong races before being caught wide and moving up on the turn, before the effort told 250m out. Before then he had rated 100 in the Formpro Ratings when coming second behind Nassak Diamond here which is the strongest rating of these in their last four starts. He gets 3kgs off so looks very well placed here. RP $2.50, $3.00 FF

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

1.Con Artist ran a strong closing second last start to a good horse in Crazy In Love. Third was Kamai Queen who ran a strong third at Ruakaka last start. So that is strong form for this race. He rates on top. RP $3.70, $4.00

Race 7 

Confidence:2/5

4.Dreamforce has gone two good races finishing on from the rear. By this time of day, they will more than likely come wide to win and he has drawn wide. So Sam Weatherley should give him the right trip. RP $3.50, $4.00 FF

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!