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Saturday 14 January 2023 preview

Trentham

The track has come up a Good 4 and should make for excellent racing. The rail is back to true from 4.5 metres and the inside should be the place to be early on. I will post an update by 11.30 if there are any Head to Head bets. Update 10.30 No Head to Heads yes

Bet of the Day Trentham Race 1 3.Mercurial $2.20 FF ( Up to $50 Bonus Bet back if 2nd ,3rd or 4th. )1st $2.10

Value Bet of the Day Race 8 8.Babylon Berlin $5 FF 2nd

Multi of the Day Mercurial $2.20 with Babylon Berlin Top 2 at $2.20 $10 returns $48.40 Yes

Suggested quaddie for 20% $21.60

R6   2712
R7   167
R8   3689
R9   1013, 20

Race 1

Confidence:4/5 1st $2.40

3.Mercurial ticks most boxes here. She is third up coming off a fast run race in the fastest closing sectionals. That followed a very good run, once again in the fastest closing sectionals. She is looking for 1400m and Opie Bosson rides. She maps to get a winning run and looks a very good bet. RP $1.40, $2.20 FF

Danger:

14.Ivy Dazzler ran a top 2nd here two starts back and had the worst run in the race last start and still ran a top second. Maybe the quinella with Mercurial.

Race 2

Confidence:2/5

6.Oh No No No bided her time last start, at the rear, then unleashed a terrific finish to get up and win easily in the end. She ran the quickest closing sectionals of the day. There looks to be plenty of speed here and it should set up nicely for her. Michael Mc Nab sticks with her. RP $3.80, $4.80 FF

Race 3

Confidence:2/5 1st $2.40

1.Codigo was very impressive when winning on debut at Matamata. She was one of the last away but showed good speed to lead and kick and win in the quickest last 200 which is rare to see after working so hard. The niggle is his gate of 1. If he begins like he did on debut he could be trapped away on the rain. In his trial he jumped better so it may just have been nerves. RP $2.70, $2.70 FF

Danger:

5.Pignan won with something in hand on a soft to heavy track here which is a big plus. With good speed is the biggest danger.

Race 4

Confidence:1/5 1st $6 

14.Another Bella ran home well here last start on a soft track and will only improve on a better track. She was an impressive winner at Te Rapa. Tough field but looks an each way chance. RP $4.50, $6.50FF

Dangers:

13.Apache Anne won impressively here two starts back then almost won with a determined finish last start. Good horse.

16.Ciambella 3rd $8 gets in on a light weight and with a good run on pace can be in it.

Race 5

Confidence:1/5

11.Funtonic showed excellent form last campaign over 1400 to 1600m. Then he won well 2nd up when the ground improved. Third up, and peaking, on a Good surface, with a light weight, means he is an eachway chace. $RP $8, $13 FF

Dangers:

6.Belle En Rouge 1st $4  is costing herself wins with slow getaways, but with a perfect ride can win.

Race 6

Confidence:2/5

7.Battlesound flew home in excellent sectionals fresh up at Rotorua over 1200m. He looks to have come back bigger and stronger this time and will relish the 1400m. RP $9, $13 FF

Dangers:

12.Romancing The Moon is the obvious danger and looks the one to beat.

2.Cognito 1st $3.30 has some good form from last season and with Opie on, can’t be left out of quaddies.

Race 7

Confidence:2/5  1st $6

14.Ladies Man closed off nicely last week and will only be improved by that. He is a good horse  drawn to land closer and get every chance with Craig Grylls on. $4.50, $4.80 FF

Dangers:

1.Sagunto should get the lead here and maps to get an uncontested lead. He is racing in career best form and can win at the weights’

7.Platinum Invador is well in at the weights and will like the Good track.

6.Campionessa  is an obvious include but a bit short.

Race 8 

Confidence: 3/5

8.Babylon Berlin 2nd $1.50 could be the value here. She beat home Levante by 2 lengths at Te Rapa but there is a 3kg swing in Levantes favour this time. Which isn’t enough to swing it to Levante. BB should lead and if Kozzi can  and get a soft 200m before the last 400, she can kick and could pinch it, especially if the rail is hot, which it could be. RP 3.00, $5.00 FF

Dangers:

6.Levante  1st $1.80 as much as I like her she maps to get back on the inner and at $1.55 is just too short. The chute hare will suit better, but the likely tempo won’t.

9.Can I Get An Amen won well last start and should land in the trail or 3 back inner. From there, she is a realistic chance to place.

3.Is That So ran a strong second last week and the better track should suit.

Race 9

Confidence:1/5 in a very open race

13.Jack The Lass ran home strongly in the second best sectionals of the race in good time. She will be peaking after that run and if she can begin ok and settle midfield, she will be hard to beat. RP $5, $7 FF

Dangers:

10.Mark Twain had the blinkers go on last start and was impressive winning off a slow pace. Looks a good horse.

20.Stimulant  finished a strong third here fresh up and went a fair race at Pukekohe from a wide draw. Wiremu Pinn jumps on.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!