Taupo
Update: No Head to heads or other bets
A good 4 track is great to see, but the showers are not. We know what that is a recipe for. With jockeys maybe playing it cautiously in the early races it is more than likely is going to favour leaders and on pace runners. It normally does anyway but we will see. Ill post an update by noon.
Bet of the Day Race 7 3.Cognito $4.80 FF
Value Bet of the Day Race 6 11.Awatere $5.50 FF
Recommended quaddie for $14.40 for 10% Yes paid $439
R5 4, 5, 7
R6 11, 16
R7 1, 3
R8 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
Race 1
Confidence: 2/5
1.Stash 1st won easily by half a nostril $1.70 was a bit unlucky last start when he got far late and finished hard for third. He hasn’t raced fpr 34 days and has a wet track action so a couple of crosses there. The plus is Tony Pike should have him fit enough as Michael McNab only takes rides on horses ready to win. RP $2.50, $2.00 FF
Race 2
Confidence:2/5
2.Sky Dancer 2nd and beaten by a slow pace went a good race for second and looked an improver. Michael McNab jumps on and drawn the ace. RP $2.80, $2.80 FF
Race 3
Wait for the Head to Head market
Race 4
Confidence:2/5 5th with just a run.
2.Prometheus looked good in his trial when leading and running second without being pushed. Warren Kennedy stays with her and can lead all the way. RP $4.00, $4.50 FF
Race 5 First leg of the quaddie
Confidence:2/5
5.Mary Shan ran a strong race when 3rd on debut when closing off in the best sectionals against better horses than these. Then problem is she will get back again from the wide and rely on a decent tempo to get over them, so she is no $1.80 shot. 2nd and beaten by the tempo
Dangers:
4.Zabmanzor looked very good at the trials coming from the rear to run 3rd beside Pokuru Gold who won impressively on Wednesday. Drawn 1 with W Kennedy on.
7.Matawai won her trial easily leading all the way and has a nice action. 1st $9.80 and great value after drifting and money came for false favourite Mary Shan
Race 6
Confidence:2/5
11.Awatere 3rd and a good debut won his trial well at Avondale coming with a powerful late run but looked to be hanging. Next trial was third under a hold but was on one rein again. Left handed seems ideal. Michael McNab stays with her and is ready to win. Will need a good ride. Well bred and is a big striding fella. RP $4.00, $5.50 FF
Dangers:
16.Molly Bloom 1st $2.00 and got the luck she needed charged home for a close 3rd in a strong maiden field. She trialed up at Avondale and wasn’t fast away. got back but finished under a hold in behind and ready to win. But she will need luck from back there.
Race 7
The speed map shows plenty of pace setting up for a back runner
Confidence:2/5
3.Cognito 2nd with a very good run sets up nicely here and I think the bookies may have got this wrong. He has won both campaigns fresh up over 1200 and 1400m and can run time. Yes, his trials were not good but so they were before his Trentham win fresh up. And as we have seen with this stable, they can improve lengths on raceday. The early money has come for him and with there being plenty of speed up front, he can come with the last run. RP $3.70, $5.50 FF
Dangers:
1.Romancing the Moon if she gets a reasonable run from the draw, has to be a real danger. 1st $2.50 crossed easily and too good
Race 8
Confidence:1/5
This is a field job. There maybe a head to head bet worth taking.
