Ellerslie preview
The scratchings won’t be updated till 12.30 pm and will update if there are any significant ones.
Nothing I like with confidence at Trentham so pass.
Bet of the Day Race 5 12.Legarto $1.70 Boosted 2nd and beaten by a 10/10 ride
Value Bet of the day Race 2 4.I’mwonderfultonight $4.80 FF 3rd Every chance.
Multi of the day with the two above. $10 returns $81.60
Race 1
The speed map shows plenty of early from inside to out and they are very likely to go hard, so logically, it sets up for an off pace runner with a cosy run.
Confidence:3/5 1st
1.Crocetti He has two things against him – the 60kgs and he hasn’t raced since winning the 2000 Guineas in November since last year. Drawn nicely and with plenty of speed, Kennedy is very likely to take a sit depending how he begins. So with a decent tempo ahead of him, he will get every chance to keep his winning record in tact. That was an outstanding win at Riccarton and he is real class and can overcome those negatives. RP $1.40, $1.30 FF and may be boosted.
Dangers:
5.Merchant Queen soon led from barrier 5 and won well in excellent sectionals and race time. She won’t get an easy lead this time and may even take a trail depending on how she jumps. If she jumps and leads, that is her best chance.
8.Just A Floozie was a hot favourite on debut and just got home but beat Orchestral 2nd, and Molly Bloom 3rd! So that is excellent form. Although she showed good early speed on debut and in her trial, she showed she relaxes ok in behind in her other trial and can come through and win. Wiremu Pinn rides and could be that horse that get the right run.
Race 2
The speed map shows early speed so should be a moderate to even pace. Likely need to be in the first four to win this.
Confidence:3/5
4.I’mwonderfultonight has rated an FR ( Formpro Rating) 0f 113 at both her last two starts which puts her on top and nothing else has rated better. She did it off tough runs as well so could have rated higher. She has drawn the inside and if Joe can get her away cleanly she should be able to trail and from there is a great chance to win, RP $3.00, $4.80 FF
Race 3
The speed map shows an even tempo.
Confidence:2/5
7.Malt Time ran a terrific race at Trentham over 1600m closing fast in the second best sectionals of the race. She has been freshened up and can run some top sectionals if saved for one sprint. She is likely to get that run and rates on top in the FR ( Formpro Ratings ). RP $5, $10 FF
Dangers:
9.Faraglioni has been racing well in tougher fields and she will get every chance.
Race 4
The speed map shows plenty of runners that will go forward and suits an off pace runner.
Confidence:2/5
10.Bellatrix Star beat Velocious at Pukekohe last start and looks to have upside. Maps to get the right run midfield, and has Warren Kennedy on board. Rates on top in the formpro ratings. RP $4, $4.80 FF
Dangers:
11.Velocious 1st had looked very smart winning two but not so dominant last start when beaten by Bellatrix Star. The better track will suit also as will James McDonald !
2.So Naive won very well here last start and if they go too hard, can win.
4.Cool ‘N’ Fast won strongly on debut and Opie is in the saddle. She must improve a few lengths as well. Has the big collect from BGP and will be well watched.
Race 5
The speed map shows maybe going forward Wessex and Sacred Satono leading or trailing Wessex. Legarto is likely to get back and a moderate tempo is likely. Wessex went back in his recent trial and ran home nicely.
Confidence:4/5
12.Legarto will get back and is a class or two above these. There is a chance it may turn into a sit sprint and that is the only way she can get beaten. Ryan Elliot will need to pick the right horse to track into it or make her own luck and get going early. She bolted in last meeting here in fast time. She should win. RP $1.20, $1.50, $1.70 Boosted.
Dangers:
4.Wild Night won really well fresh up and had everything go against him second up. He maps to get a soft run near the pace and is the best quinella chance.
2.Desert Lightning 1st $13 gets in well at the weights and should be in the right place to be right in this.
Race 6
The speed map shows Pendragon leading again and may get an uncontested lead.
Confidence:3/5
10.Molly Bloom won the 1000 Guineas like a very good filly and then won at Pukekohe impressively. She is a big strong filly peaking nicely for this. The tempo of the race shows Pendragon may lead and get a soft one. Other riders in the field will know that so it is very likely others will go forward as well and put some pressure in the race. That is all she needs to get over them. RP $2.50, $3.30 FF
