Trentham
Bet of the Day Trentham Race 1 1.Old Bill Bone $2.20 FF 2nd
Value Bet of the day Trentham Race 2 3.Kereti $6.50 FF 2nd
Speed Map Special Race 3 3.Swazi $6.50 FF 3rd
Big Value Bet Race 6 9.Stockpin $34 and $3,60 Top 4
Multi of the Day Old Bill Bone with Bridal Train $10 returns $59.40
Trentham quaddie $31.20 for 10%
Race 1
Confidence:3/5
1.Old Bill Bone rates well on top here after sitting 3 wide on the pace and fighting hard for second. Drawn well and maps to get a good trip and can win again. RP $1.80, $2.25 FF
Race 2
Confidence:2/5
3.Kereti won like a good horse at Tauherenikau after switching ground and driving through late to win going away and attacking the line. He ran a very good 4th in the Ryder Stakes when 4 wide in the open, went wide on the bend and just lost 3rd late. There is plenty of speed in this and he will likely snag and get a track into it and is a good eachway chance from there. RP $4.50, $6.50 FF and $1.95 FF
The favourite Komocean maps to be back on the inner from the draw and is slow away so could have trouble working clear although the speed map says there will be plenty of pace which will help.
Race 3
Confidence:2/5
3.Swazi went a nice race last start in a stronger R75 class race. She drops back to R65 grade here with a 3kg from Amber Riddell who is gaining in skill and confidence all the time. She can lead from the inside gate and is an eachway chance. RP $5, $6.50 FF
Race 4
Confidence: 2/5
1.Hickory Jack is a good horse as he showed on the tighter Tauherenikau track finishing hard late. He has drawn 1 here and if Lisa Allpress can get him to settle, he can use that powerful finish to full effect. Maps to trail or be 3 back inner. RP, $7, $14 FF
Race 5
Confidence:2/5
6.Belle’s Echo ran on strongly for third here last week and in excellent sectionals. She has won here over 1400m and third up with the light weight looks set to win. RP $4.50, $5.50 FF
Race 6
Confidence:2/5
9.Stockpin is an upset chance in this. Last start second up she pinged the gates and led and set a moderate pace. But then she really sprinted hard and was simply too fast and ran the fastest closing sectionals by far all day. She is bred to win over 1600m being out of 11 win mare Likeapins and she should land on the pace and could even lead if she begins like she did last start. Anyway, she should get every chance and is a good eachway bet at $31 and $5.50. RP $12 and will probably drift.
NB The favourite Leica Lucy won well last start but the official time was not correct of 1.34.18. I got it at 1.34.91 which is still very good but not outstanding.
Race 7
The classic Trentham graveyard race. You could make a case for any of these to win, so it’s a field job for the quaddie.
Race 8
Confidence:2/5
14.Moonlight Magic ran a big second in the Queensland Derby. She was a very unlucky 4th here in the Manawatu Classic when checked at the 150m when mounting a very likely run. She ran second fresh up behind the best horse in NZ in Snazzytavi and in a bit of a sprint home was back all the the way in the Rich Hill Mile. She steps up to 2100m and drops in class and drawn well. She should get a good run and at the weights a good eachway chance. RP $5, $9 FF
Race 9
Confidence:1/5
In an open race lacking pace the obvious one for me is 7.Arby. He ran his best race ever last start after working wide to get handy. Jasmine is a positive rider so he may lead or be on the pace which is going to the place to be. From there he can kick on these and be hard to run down. RP $7, $10 FF
Race 10
Confidence:3/5
4.Bridal Train won easily and strongly here last Saturday in good time. She has a good galloping action and 1600m suits now. The speed map shows she will get a good run behind an even to strong pace and with Michael McNab on will get out at the right time and be very hard to beat. RP $2.70 $3.10 FF
Wingatui
Race 3
Confidence:2/5
4.Show Pony rates clear of these in the Formpro Ratings and gets in with a winning weight and with a good pace predicted, can bury these. RP $3.20, $3.90 FF, $4.50 Odds Surge
