A good day with 3 of the 6 Good Confidence bets winning for a 22.4 and a 36.4 return. Alabama Lass, Amend and El Vencedor all got the runs expected. I got Willydoit wrong- he had every excuse to get beaten but still won easily. A really good training performance by Shaun Clotworthy.
Ellerslie
A great day of racing and some well placed runners. Legarto is the hardest horse to beat all day so she is the bet of the day. Class can lead all the way in the last. El Vencedor and Evaporate map well and are the best horses in their races. The rematch between Alabama Lass and Crocetti will be mouth watering. And Amend at New Plymouth will very hard to peg back and then to get past.
Bet of the Day Race 5 1.Legarto $1.60 FF 3rd
Value Bet of the Day Race 10 2.Class $3.90 FF 3rd $1.70
Big Value Bet Race 4 8. Miss Ziggy $15 FF
Multi of the Day with the two above to win $10 returns $62.40
Suggested quaddie for $20 for 20%
Ellerslie
Race 1
Confidence:2/5 Last and punctured a fair way out.
7.Bonifleur went a very good race last start when slow out and then weaved her way through to run a strong third. George Rooke jumps on for the first time and his experience could get her away better and if she can settle midfield or better, she will be in the right place to strike at a nice eachway price. RP $4.50, $6 FF
Race 2
Confidence:2/5 2nd in a sit sprint- good lead into the Oaks- nice relaxed filly who drops her head.
4.This Time Girl won strongly over 1400m here and ran a solid third over 1800 off a slow pace hitting the line hard. She hasn’t raced since then but she is a natural stayer and has Zabeel’s blood in her. There should be a better pace here and from she can settle around midfield or worse one off and be a solid eachway chance. RP $4.50 FF
Race 3
Confidence:3/5 Won it at the start and bolted in. $1.70 but 2.75 on the Peoples Boost- well done People! 4.3 units at $2.75 = 11.71 return
5.Alabama Lass was only just beaten by Crocetti here in the Railway. The track was rain affected and that was the difference. Alabama Lass can lead early and may elect to hand up to Babylon Berlin. Then she can either trail or may ease out and sit 2nd outer. From there, she can beat these. RP $1.90, $2.00 FF Available for $2.75 on the Futures marker on the Leg Up People’s Boost max $100
Race 4
Confidence:2/5
8.Miss Ziggy ran an excellent third in the KM coming from well back off a moderate tempo. Then she ran a solid second off a slow tempo again for second. The speed map shows there will be plenty of speed in this which will allow her to use her finishing power to good effect. RP $8, $18 FF Top 4 $2.90
Race 5
Confidence:4/5 3rd every chance. 3.7 units at 1.60 Loss- had cardiac arrythmia
1.Legarto looked back to her very best at Matamata and she has trained up and strongly and her exhibition gallop was a just what you would want to see. Drawn to get a good run and only bad luck can beat her. RP $1.30, $1.60 FF
Race 6
Confidence:3/5 1st and a great race. 3.8 units at 2.15= 8.2 units return
1.El Vencedor has won 4 from 5 of her last starts here and is in terrific form. Should lead and if something takes him on, let them go and sit on their backside. From either position, he is going to be very hard to run down. RP $1,70, $2.15 FF
Race 7
Confidence:2/5 3rd
1.Interpretation was travelling really well to the turn here last start and then got blocked twice in the straight looking for gaps. He would have gone close to winning with a clear run. he has targeted this race and despite the 59kgs, the goood draw should allow Blake Shinn to position him in a winning position and grind them down. RP $.50 , $5.50 FF
Race 8
Confidence:3/5 2nd 4.2 units
1.Evaporate was caught 3 wide in the open and still ran within 2 lengths to one of the best horses in Australia. All reports are that he is 100% and peaking third up. He looked to be relishing his work at Ellerslie during the week. Drawn wide but maps to get in handy one off, and it should be at least an even pace, and he should win. RP $1.70, $2.35 FF
Race 9
Confidence:2/5
5.Oceana Dream after having looked at the replay of his races and the Avondale guineas a few times, he looks the hardest to beat to me. He dropped his head in his last race and when asked to go sprinted hard for a strong 3rd and ran the fastest last 200 metres. He has drawn the inside, so is going to get an economical run, and he should be able to work clear in time to beat these. RP $4, $5 FF
Dangers:
2.Tuxedo is a real danger if he can get a good run from the wide draw. he was dominant at Te Rapa and the trainers have him peaking at the right time.
1.The Doctoroflove won strongly last start and the rider said he did not handle the bends too well. Bound to be improved by that though and I like the way he finishes off his races with determination.
3.Bourbon Proof as had a solid preparation and should get all favours from the gate.
4.Willydoit shows signs of having had enough. His behaviour before his last race of chewing the bit and being a bit keen with the steward, then over racing, and having a hard race over 1500m before that, plus the wide draw, all add up to a false favourite. There is talk of him going forward at the start, so he will need luck to get in one off before the first bend, so at $3.90, I suggest looking elsewhere. Got that wrong- had to work hard 3 wide for virtually half the race and yet still win easily!
Race 10
Confidence:3/5 3rd $1.70 3.1 units
2.Class put in a great run last start after setting a strong pace and being run down late. He has been kept up to the mark for this and looks like he can get an uncontested lead if Blake shows intent on keeping it, and be very hard to run down. RP $2.50, $3.90 FF
New Plymouth
They are very small but even fields here so best watched.
Race 1
Confidence:3/5 Led all the way as predicted. $5 Odd Surge 3.3 units at $5 -16.5 return
4.Amend drew wide last start and had to work to lead and never actually crossed to the rail and fought well for third. That was over 1400m and she drops back to 1100m here and maps to get the lead. From there, it will take a good effort to run her down. Silent is Gold gets a good weight swing in his favour but the moderate tempo should really favour Amend. RP $3, $3.80, $4.40 Odds Surge
