Awapuni Synthetic
I’ll be previewing all the synthetic track meetings over the Winter just to keep my hand in.
Just a low key meeting today with every stake worth the minimum of $17,000.
I’ve gone through each race and had a good look at the replays, ratings, sectionals and speed maps, so we’ll see how we go. I hope the preview helps you out or you can use the comments to compare your selections.
The Best Bet is in Race 3 5.Songwriter at $4 Ff and suggest taking the quinella with 1.Fourty Eight at $5.60 FF as they look the only two who can win. The Exacta is paying $11.50 so is worth a bet too.
Value Bets on the day look to be Curtsey $8 FF in the first race ( Bonus Back for 2nd or 3rd )
And Adee Boy $9 FF in the seventh race.
Suggested late quaddie for $24 for 5% is:
Leg 1 (R4): 1, 3, 4, 7
Leg 2 (R5): 1, 2, 3, 6, 7
Leg 3 (R6): 1, 2, 5, 6
Leg 4 (R7): 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7
Awapuni Synthetic
Race 1
Don’t like the favourite here- drawn out and will have to be used early to get handy so likely to snag and will be no $2.80 shot from there.
The Speed map shows Curtsey should lead and an even pace is likely.
Confidence:2/5
7.Curtsy second up here set a good pace from the inside barrier and after straightening, looked around a bit and fought on well for third. Should lead again over the same distance, with natural improvement and the addition of blinkers, she looks a nice eachway bet. RP $5, $8 FF
Danger:
9.Red Ribbon is the best bred in the field being a half sister to Nom de Plume ( 4 wins) . She ran a nice 4th here this time last year and has two plusses going on – the tongue tie and Bruno Queiroz, who is a good rider. RP $10, $20FF and $2.80 First Four
2.Ruji was a bit stiff here last start when blocked twice in the straight and finished 4th just off Curtsey. Likely to snag from wide out and fitter for that. And if they go hard can finish over the top of them.
8.Honoka has been placed in stronger fields and gets in on a good weight from a good draw, from a good stable.
Race 2
The Speed map shows speed out wide and Jack Morrison has led and won 4 out of 5 times here so others riders will be aware of that that he always leads, so will likely look to take a sit outside him or sit behind him and an even pace is likely.
Confidence:3/5
1.Jack Morrison has led and won 4 out of 5 times here and the loss was at the end of his campaign. He was relishing his work here when he won last start and can only improve off that. He should lead again and if nothing takes him on, which I can see will happen, he should lead all the way again, His ratings have been strong and Amber Riddell is riding very well. RP $2.50, $3 FF
Dangers:
8.Goddess won third up at Whanganui and is third up here. Gets 2kgs off and drawn well. The upsetter.
7.Love Janie battled on well in the slower ground last start and maps to get a cosy run.
5.Free Spirit ran on fairly fresh up and will be improved with that run. Gets in on a very good weight.
Race 3
The Speed map shows four runners going forward and a moderate to even pace likely suiting on pace runners.
Good race this one. I give the definite advantage to Songwriter here with the weight advantage. The Head to head betting should offer value too.
Confidence: 3/5
5.Songwriter went a very good race for third last start giving away 9ks to Cry Baby which told over the last 100. Still, it was a very good run for third and he will improve with that and be peaking now. Rated the best last start. Gets in on a winning weight of 53kgs, getting 5kgs off Fourty Eight who is his main danger. Should get a good run near the pace in an evenly run race. RP $2.50, $4 FF
Danger:
1.Fourty Eight looks the obvious danger with 3 wins from 3 starts. He has won on the course and distance in a very good speed rating and can be forgiven his last start. Gives 5kgs to Songwriter though and that will make it tough.
2.Sir Mikki won here second up after a poor run fresh up also. Can place.
4.Final Chapter is a bit of a grinder but if they happen to go too fast, he can get into it.
Race 4
The speed map shows three runners going forward and a moderate pace is likely suiting on pace runners.
Confidence:3/5
3.Tears Of Victory ran a good fourth at Trentham last start over 1100 when she began well, then dropped in behind the leaders and came home strongly in the second best last 200m in slightly slower ground. She seems better ridden with a sit and can get that here from the draw. She won an R60 race at Tauranga in February and has Bruno on board replacing the apprentice She rates 5 lengths better than anything else here last start and looks well placed to win again. RP $2.60, $3.10FF
Dangers:
1.Colonel Warden is set to improve but is likely to get back off the moderate pace and find it difficult to get over the front markers.
4.Schuski ran a very good second here over 1400m fresh up and will be on the pace.
7.Tokyodome got home well here last start and ran the quickest last 200m. Could sneak into a placing with the light weight.
Race 5
The speed map shows 4 or 5 runners wanting to be leading or on the pace so it will be a decent tempo allowing off pace runners to get into it.
An open race where the favourite is Shiatsu but she got a soft lead and ran away from a weaker maiden field but is up against fit horses here and she wont get the lead without working for it, so happy to be against the 3yo filly.
Confidence:2/5
5.Lantern Way has had three runs back now and last start struck a heavy track at Trentham. He will get back and the solid tempo will suit him. He rates on top with Doubtful Sound and looks well placed to get back in form. RP $5, $6.50 FF
Dangers:
1.Doubtful Sound won well here last start and gets 3kgs off and drawn the inside.
7.Victortheinflictor ran the race of an improver last start and will be peaking with a light weight.
2.Gohugo was 4th outer and came home well for a good second in the best last 200 metres. A better pace will suit and will be peaking.
Race 6
The speed map shows plenty of speed out wide and an even pace likely.
Interesting race with a first starter from the Gray stable looking ready to win. Jabeur, the favourite is beatable.
Confidence:2/5
2.Exaggeration has had four trials to get ready for his debut and based on his last one, he is ready to strike. Drawing the ace should allow him to get a winning run behind the even pace and the way he finished off his trial, this strong looking 3yo looks the one to beat with Bruno on. RP $3.20, $3.40 FF
Dangers:
6.Vaporize rates on top here after some handy runs in much stronger company. Gets 3kgs off and drawn to get a sweet run.
5.Jabeur will be near the pace and she trialled just ok after being on pace and not being ridden out for a distant third. Led and was under a ride on the turn fresh up and battled away for third. Stronger now but can get beaten.
1.Bolt went a fair race against some race winners fresh up and will finds this easier and goes ok second up.
Race 7
The speed map shows this is going to be run at an even pace.
An open race with a few chances.
Confidence:2/5 with many chances.
2.Ardee Boy raced here last start and looked terrific before the start but was caught 3 wide in the open on a decent pace and although last, was only 3 lengths off them and doing well considering the run he received. So third up here, from a draw that should see him get an ideal run about 3rd or 4th, and with the 3kgs off, it all adds up to a winning run. He also rates 2nd after weight adjustments to Kana. RP $6, $9 FF
Dangers:
1.Kana carries a fair size pudding on her back but went a fair race fresh up in a harder field. Will likely get back but if they go hard, she can finish over the top of them.
3.Callada went a good race two back in a good speed rating. Went too fast last start and tired late. If he can cross them without doing too much work, could hold on.
4.Discovery Bay good second two starts back and drew out and got back last start and finished fairly. Good draw here and should get all favours.
7.Puzzle Master looked good last season winning and was an unlucky second fresh up. Maybe forgive him fresh up on a very heavy track last start.
