A below average day for subscibers. Takechance $5 paid good money for a Good Confidence bet of 3/5 or better. Three people got a share of the $5k quaddie with help from the preview, all saying they wouldn’t have stuck it with Sulabella, without the preview. Let me know if you got a share too. Roar Of the Jungle didn’t cop the track and was gone on the turn. I feel that if Barcelona had been ridden more aggressively before the turn and wider sooner she would have won.
The next meeting I’ll preview will be some full race previews with in depth comments about every runner from Te Rapa and Otaki. Watch out for the Early Saturday post where I’ll mention and early Saturday bets, plus the Multi Maker from a Friday greyhounds, gallops or Harness meeting where you can multi it into early Saturday bets.
Some interesting fields at Rotorua with some well pace runners. Roar Of the Jungle looks very hard to beat against a weak lot. And Barcelona looks the best value and should be able to get to the right place in the straight.
Bet of the day Race 3 1.Roar Of The Jungle $2.20 FF
Next Best Race 6 4.Diomedes $3.90 FF 3rd
Value Bet of the day Race 5 7.Barcelona $6.50 FF
Suggested late quaddies $14.40 for10%
Race 1
Confidence:3/5
2.Jelly Roll made a good debut when he began well, caught wide so snagged back and got caught 3and 4 wide in the open, and ran on strongly. The tongue tie goes on which indicates he had a breathing problem last start too which makes his run even better. His dam won two races in heavy ground and from the good draw is a chance of being on the pace and upsetting the favourite. RP $4.50, $8 FF
Dangers:
10.Litteral Got back 2nd up but ran home strongly for 2nd. Trainer is very good and peaking third up will be hard to beat. Good pace up front so can settle into her stride and come with the last run at them. RP $2.40, $2.35
1.My Faith led up and battled ok for 4th last start. Being an on-pace runner will help.
6.Sky Falls has placed here and drawn well.
Race 2
Confidence:2/5
4.Smart Tip drew wide last start and began well but other on his inside did also. So he got a bit keen behind runners but from the turn ran on strongly changing ground. This time she has drawn better and should race on the pace or may even lead, and be hard to run down. RP $4.50, $6 FF 2nd $2 qu $21
Dangers:
3.Cool Cat looks the main danger after he began well, 2nd outr, chal str, fght back well. He is a nice galloper and will be improved by that run.
6.Pollyisacracker is ready for a good run now with two runs under her belt and drawn well with a good apprentice up. 1st $7.30 1st
1.Dragon Blossom has placed here and drawn well.
Race 3
Confidence: 3/5
1.Roar Of The Jungle last start showed natural early speed to lead then took a sit and relaxed nicely, then chased Ma Te Wa, who won again next start, home for a very good second. He will be peaking now for the 1400m now and looks very hard to beat. RP $1.50, $2.20 FF
Dangers:
2.Rio Grance should trail the favourite and can place from there.
9.Abeecee ran on well on debut and trialled very well before that.
4.Don’s Legacy ran on well fresh up and 1400m will suit.
| Race 4 | |||||||||
| TAB No. | Confidence:3/5 7.Takeachance has clearly the best lead in form on a very heavy track. Ballistic Miss is the only real danger if she can handle the track. | ||||||||
| 7 | Takeachance | Last start was a big effort when she was caught 5 wide in the open at the back was a bit closer wider on the turn, and kept a sustained gallop to the line running the best last 200m. The winner, Kai Moana led all the way closer to the rail . This a decent drop in class and her run before that was good also. Hasn’t raced here before her win came on a 1.18 for 1200m at Pukekohe. Rated Price (RP) $3.00 Currently $3.90 FF 1st $5 | |||||||
| 5 | Ballistic Miss | Won easily 4 starts back at Matamata left handed on a 1.40 for 1600m track, then next start was midf outr, closr wdr tn, then battled over the last 200m for 8th. Then two starts back was a bit stiff after getting after snagging from a wide draw, was held up until the 100m and finished strongly for 6th in a stronger field than this. Then last start was midfield inner and weakened right out on a 1.47 for 1600m track. This will likely be a 1.40 plus track so the negative is she may have not liked that track last start or the nose band may have been annoying her, and Stephen Marsh has taken it off. Strong form coming into this and George Rooke, who is very good, takes the reins. | |||||||
| 1 | Did The Trick | Last start at Te Rapa was 6th 3 and 4w in the open,on the drift by 500m fdd out. Formline comment was ” Bk to tn, -Under pres, stpd’ In 5 starts this campaign hasn’t placed. The three positives are: he goes back in class, the Blinkers go on, and he was in form this time last year with 2 wins and a second to handy horses.
The money is coming for him early so include in quaddies. |
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| 2 | Roc Up Ralph | Last start fresh up was caught wide in the open and fought hard for a close second but a weak R65 field and most of his placings and wins have come over more ground. Gets 4kgs off which is a good plus. Runners with stronger form in this. | |||||||
| 3 | Elton Rocks | Three runs fresh up for 11th, 7th and 8th. Won well at Tauranga on a soft track 3w in the open. But in three starts last campaign finished last or one in front of last. Visor Blinkers On which may improve him. Gets 3kgs off but hard to put in front of others here. | |||||||
| 4 | Frosbie | Last start he was rear, impr inner to share the lead turn, but tired 200m out and didn’t appear to relish the going. .He’s had 3 wins in Oz on Good tracks and one on a soft over 1200, 1600 and 1700m. Tongue Tie goes on and if he had a 3 or 4kg allowance, he’d be chance but couldn’t have him in front of some others in this. | |||||||
| 6 | Overrated | Last start he settled 6th outr, was urged on the turn, then weakened. He ran last here at his last run on the course and placed 2nd here on a heavy track at his second start to La Mezquita, a handy horse. On his 3 runs back this time he might sneak into the top 4 with those runs under his belt. | |||||||
| TAB No. | Race 5 | Confidence:3/5 7.Barcelona has the strongest form coming into this and a winning weight. $6.50 makes her a good value bet from the Marsh stable. | |||||||
| 7 | Barcelona | Last start she was midfield 3w opn, impr to 2nd otr 1200,urged tn, wknd 300m. Formline comment is, ” Midf, Imprv to chal tn,stopd” No mention of working hard to get 2nd outr.The start before she was snagged from a wide draw,held up to 300,ran on well and strong thru the line. -3rd fastest last 600 and 200m and fastest last 100m. In the formline there was no mention of her being held up. Before that a strong finishing third in the best closing sectionals. Won her maiden on a heavy10 track and has an ideal wet track action. Hayley Hassman gets 3kgs off, maps to snag back and get to outer better ground by this time of day, drops down in class and should be very fit and looks well placed.$3.50 2nd and with a more aggressive ride on the turn would have won. | |||||||
| 2 | Teak | Last start he missed the jump, got back, was closer on the turm and didn’t finish it off. Before that fresh up at Matamata was slow out with the blinkers on and was last but was doing his best work late. The blinkers come off for this, and he drops in class and gets 4kgs off, He maps to sit outside the lead with the blinkers coming off, and goes well here with two placings on heavy tracks. | |||||||
| 5 | Proudtobhere | Won strongly at Matamata leading all of the way beating Chataya who went a good race at Ruakaka Saturday. but a slow speed rating, and he did get a soft lead. Then the next two starts he got a nice run on pace but weakened over the last 200m. Nice galloper but on those last two starts he doesn’t deserve favouritism. From the Foreman stable and the bookies are very weary of them. Gets 2kgs off. | |||||||
| 4 | Jack In The Box | Last start at Matamata over 1600 on a heavy track he shared the pace outr. Was tackled on the turn and just btld 200m out for fifth. He raced in this last year and got back off a moderate speed and ran on well for sixth. His best form is over more ground and he is probably looking for that now. 1st | |||||||
| 1 | Innocent Victim | Fresh up here the formline says ‘ On Pc, safely held.’ What actually happened is he was midfield inner, loomed closer in the slower ground on the corner, then wknd from the 150. he had no chance in the slower inner ground and it wasn’t a bad race. He has since trialed at Avondale and was last iner, wdr tn, and had no finish. Sems better suited to a middle distance and probably that is his target. Gives decent weight to others. | |||||||
| 6 | Mood Painter | Last start was 4th 4w opn, on retreat 500m. Before that worked to get 2nd otr 900, chal tn,2nd 200, fght hard. Has had three starts for no placings on course. Others better chances. | |||||||
| 3 | King’s Mount | Last start drew wide and was caught wd in the open, and hung then faded out. He has no form on a Heavy track and has an action more suitable for a dry track and his form indicates. Maybe better left handed with 4kgs off his back and drawn the inside, which is generally not the place to be. Had plenty of gear changes for this. Hard to place ahead of others. | |||||||
| 8 | More To Be Written | Last start he was 5th 3w opn, wdr on the turn and stuck on ok for 6th. He gets down to a light weight but he hasn’t placed in 20 runs. Fair run last start. But would needs things to wrong for others to be a top 4 chance. | |||||||
| Race 6 | |||||||||
| TAB No | Confidence:3/5 4.Diomedes looks to have most positives going for him and is set to win third up on a heavy track. Looks to be at least an even tempo with four runners going forward, so the winner will have to be fit. | ||||||||
| 4 | Diomedes | Fresh up: Raced hndy outr then was blocked for a run 400, out 300 and btld well for fifth in a stronger field. Last start at Trentham jumped well to be sharing the pace 4w in the opn, led wide in the strait, hdd 200 and btld well in stronger field. In this race last year 4th up on a similar track was handy 4th, blokd on the turn and then was winding up for one last crack at them, then was blokd again- he would have gone close to beating the winner, Sulabella. 3rd up now and is ready for a peak effort. Michael McNab rides again- won on him 2nd up 1600m. Looks primed to win third up. RP $3.90 FF | |||||||
| 8 | Sulabella | Won this race last year on a heavy 10 track. Last start worked to lead in a stronger field, then 2nd wdr on the tn, and then weakened from the 250. Before that he settle 7th innr, got out in the slower inner ground on the turn, and battle away over 1200m which was too short. She has won fourth up and she is fifth up here, and won this race last year beating Diomedes (5th). 1st $11 | |||||||
| 5 | Tregor | Last start began well, eased 7th wd open better grnd, then kept up a sustained fin in the better ground to just win but well. This is a stronger field but if they are winning on the outside fence, he is drawn wide. Progressive type and 4th up. | |||||||
| 6 | Loch Katrine | Last start at Te Rapa was 6th inr,got out wdr on the tn,and had no xtra 200m.In her trial at Te Awamutu she dropped back inner, was under a grip turning in an finished stylishly for 4th alongside Unequivocal who won last week. She won at Pukekohe on a boggy 1.45 for 1600m track beating a weaker field. She has had one start for a handy fifth in a stonger field that this. The upsetter. | |||||||
| 8 | Wainui Bay | Last start,Led and got a soft one,hdd 200, btld well in a weaker field. Ran a good 4th to Pacifico two starts back and he has won twice since. From the inside likely to get a good run in the first 4 and with the light weight, is a First 4 chance. Ran a battling 4th in his only start on a true Heavy 10 track. | |||||||
| 3 | Mister Roquette | Last start in the Open class race, jumped first, then eased 1×1, drftd bk tn, plugged away. Before that was over 1200m at Te Rapa in a good R75 race: 7th outr,out slower innr, ran on nicely. All hi best form has been over 1500m or less and over more is 2 placings form 7 starts, so the distance on a heavy 10 track is query. Hayley Hassam rides and she is a very good 3kg apprentice so could get a Top 4 slot. | |||||||
| 1 | Cleese | He has many runs fresh up and never won any, so at 7 years of age, is probably unlikely to reverse that trend. 2nd up starts are 4-1-2 so will likely improve with it. | |||||||
| 2 | Rua Rocks | Last start at New Plymouth in a stronger field, Led eralt, stled 1×1.5th wdr tn undr rd, wknd. ( Not MF- Moderate effort) and then fresh up the start before that was 4th 3w opn,5th tn, effort told 200m. They were both harder Open Handicaps. Started in this 2 years ago and was 2nd outr on the very heavy track then faded out. Will find this easier with a freshen up and 3kgs off. Not sure on the course though with 3 placings from 5 starts and no wins. | |||||||
| 7 | Pick Of The Litter | Has won fresh up before at Tauranga on a Soft 7 over 1600m. And has placed on a heavy 10 at Avondale Behing Diomedes. She’s a 6yo mare now and may take one or two to strike form.Tongue Tie goes on. In her recent trial she was 5th wd open to the turn, and wasn’t pushed to run 6th. Likely to snag here and be running on at the end with a middle distance in mind. | |||||||
| Race 7 | Confidence:1/5 A race where you can make a case for many runners. Go as wide as you can in the quaddie. 3.Zanzibar looks to have the most promise and if the money comes for him he is ready. | ||||||||
| 3 | Zanzibar | Last start: 3rd wd opn, led wdr tn, kept fighting hard. Big strong horse suited to a slog. Drawn wide which will more than likely be the place to be. Gets a 2kg allowance. If money comes for him that’s a good sign as he may need this with a 24 day break. | |||||||
| 2 | Whiskey N’ Rye | Last start was awkwardly away, bk outr, out tn, ran on fairly. Drops back to R65 class again with 3kgs off. Won two from 3 here and a definite chance back this way. | |||||||
| 6 | Girls Light Up | Last start the formline reads Midf outr to tn, impr, btld on. When it was Bk inner, out tn. ran on strongly for 4th and ran the 3rd best closing sectionals. Ready for a peak effort now and Michael McNab replaces the apprentice. 1st $8 quaddie $5,295 | |||||||
| 8 | Emmy Dazzler | Fresh up began well, easd back for cover, ran on well inner. Her two wins have come over 1400m on heavy tracks and gets in on a light weight. Definite chance. | |||||||
| 10 | Evelyn Rush | Last start was bk, impr 3w cvr, ran on strongly for fourth. Good 3rd before that. Ready for a peak run. | |||||||
| 11 | Saint Brigid | Last start was midf outr, closr 4th wdr tn, btld away. Won here last July over 1400m fourth up on a heavy 10. Ran second to Twain the start before that. Should be improve with that fresh run and a top 4 chance. | |||||||
| 5 | Robbie Burns | Last start the formline reads: Last to tn, never likely. It was actually: Out well gradually drifted bk on the inner to rear, out tn, best work late. Ran the third best last 200m. Strong 3rd here on a heavy track and is a chance second up with a light weight. | |||||||
| 4 | Betabequik | Last start fresh up he was slow away and tailed off, but made up plenty of ground to run 7th in the best last 600m. Has won here on a heavy track and if that run hasn’t flattened him, he must be a chance. | |||||||
| 13 | Summit Heights | Fresh up the formline reads ‘Chkd,bk Start, under pres, stpd” When he was actually crowded at the start but soon was up 3rd inr to tn, wknd 200m. He has won here on a heavy track fresh up and won second up at Matamata before, so could be worth sticking in for an upset chance, as that run will have improve him. Early money has come for him too. | |||||||
| 1 | Step In Time | Won second up over 1600m and went on to win here over 2200m. Recent trial says he may need this fresh up over 1400 when he 5th outr and ran last under a ride. | |||||||
| 9 | Crackercol | Two runs back has done nothing. Gets a light weight but should find others better. | |||||||
12.Still Bangon is a chance as she has the best Formpro Rating on a slow or heavy track. Another to include inn quaddies in a very even field.
