Bosch led all the way and got out to $4 on the Odds Surge late and won well. With Grace got too far back and ran on well for third. Tide and Time was backed into $4 and looked home until Nancy She Wrote came along in the fast lane.
With Hawera postponed until Tuesday that has left us with Ruakaka. There are some good bets there detailed below.
Bet of the Day Ruakaka 3 7.With Grace $3.10 FF and $3.60 Odds Surge Bonus Back Race up to $50 3rd
Value Bet of the Day Race 7 6.Tide And Time $8.50 when selected Friday now into $6.50 FF and $7.50 OS 2nd
Race 1
Confidence:2/5 with everyman and his dog on Moretothinkabout. He is really well bred but on a heavy track against debut runners, there are a lot better $2.80 betting option.
Ruakaka early quaddie $14.40 for $10 % No
Ruakaka late quaddie for $14.40 for 10%
Race 2
Confidence:2/5
5.Undisputed has looked good in both of his trials when flashing late in his first trial then showing a very good turn of foot when winning at Ellerslie. He has a good wet track action. The only negative is he is $2.50 FF making his debut and gets in behind others. McNab could negate that though. RP $3.00. $2.50 FF, $2.80 FF
Race 3
The Speed Map shows a lack of leaders but in the big field, it is very likely to be even allowing every horse its chance if it is good enough.
Confidence:3/5 3rd
7.With Grace went a beauty up in grade here last start when she was squeezed back from a wide draw in a winners race and got back. Then she was held up until the 200m mark and rounded it off strongly. She went a very good race before that too when a close second at Matamata and daylight third. She draws nicely here and has enough early speed to make use of it. From there she just needs the gaps in time and should get them and round these up and put them away. RP $3, $3.40 FF $3.90 OS
Race 4
You could make a case for 7 runners here so pass here. The favourite, Judicial, has his chance in front fresh up. Trialed ok since but there are few realistic chances here so at $2.90 is too short. and got 2nd so money saved
Race 5
The speed map shows a lack of on pace runners so will favour on pace runners.
Confidence:3/5 Led all the way
3.Bosch went a very good second to Pacifico here last start. He maps to lead or be in the first 3 if something else takes him on. He won easily here on a Heavy 8 track and has won here 4 times. He is in form, maps to get a soft lead, and loves the joint, so he can lead all the way. RP $2.50, $3.50 FF, $3.90 OS.
Dangers:
7.I’m Lulu ran on well in very good sectionals out wide for 4th. Better draw here and a good quinella chance. 3rd
1.Fly My Way drawn 1 and if she can trail Bosch, or could even be in front on settling, depending how they jump, is a place chance. 2nd
6.Richie’s Dream looked good running second here. Has won over a middle distance and is a big strong mare.
Race 6
Speed map shows that Trigon Lad holds the key here. He will go forward and if he is content to sit outside the lead, that will suit Illicit Dream as the pace will favour them. But with the light weight on Trigon Lad is more likely to try for the lead and set it up for an off pace runner.
Confidence:2/5
5.Keegan won very well last start and drops 6kg and us up in class but race fit. He beat Knight’s Realm at Trentham on a soft track. He has always looked as though he could measure up in Open class and he looks set to show it. RP $3.50
Dangers:
2.St Bathans was a bit stiff last start here and could settle back despite that they have said he will go forward. Either way, he is a strong fella and can fight this out with Keegan.
7.Trigon Lad the instructions should be to try hard for the lead as Illicit Dream is suspect at a truly run 1400m. Once he leads he tends to set an even pace so could hold on for a top 3 or 4 possie.
1.Mercurial is more of a place chance. Trainer has said he will need the run with the Group 1s in mind. Can place in this company though.
Race 7
The speed map shows a lack of on pace runners and should favour the first 6 runners in running.
Confidence:3/5 2nd
6.Tide and Time went a very good race last start inn Open Company stuck out 3 w in the open and fought very well for a close 4th. She is third up here, she won at this meeting last year, has won on a heavy track here, and Jasmine Fawcett jumps on and she has won on her. Maps to settle in the first four on a moderate speed and get every chance at good odds. RP $4, $8.50 FF, $10 Odds Surge
Dangers:
1.Maldini ran Pacifico close and he won next start. 4kg allowance will help.
13.Suavita ran a strong second last start. Up in class but down in weights.
7.Talentosa won second up last campaign and should handle the track better than most.
Race 8
Confidence:2/5 2nd
3.Chicago Dream won very well here last start and drawing 1 will be a plus or a reason to late scratch depending on how the track is playing. RP $6. $10 FF
Dangers:
7.Vesphire was unlucky last start when back and ripped home for second. Wide draw could be a plus by this time of day.
1.Mr Fortrus has run two top races since a spell. Heavy track is a query but it is for most of these.
11.We Found Love has won on a 1.13 track and won her trial well leading all the way.
