Saturday preview
Good morning,
I have sorted out 3 Good Confidence bets of 3/5 or better detailed below. And I have previewed all other races at the NZ venues.
Enjoy the ride
Neil
Bet of the day Flemington Race 9 11.Mr Blunt $2.20 FF Missed
Value bet of the Day Otaki Race 7 8.Bridal Train $4.50, $5.50 FF missed
Better Value bet Race 7 7.Esternay $10 FF
Multi with the two above both to win $10 returns $99
Otaki
Race 2
Confidence:3/5 2nd
6.Great Escape won on debut and beat a good field. Then she raced in strong fields for some good placings. She has had two good trials and wasn’t let go and is ready to win fresh up. She maps to get every chance and looks a good chance of winning this over 1100m. RP $1.90, $2.45 FF, $2.80 Odds Surge
Race 7
Confidence:3/5
8.Bridal Train was just beaten here two starts back in an excellent speed rating over the 1600m. Then last start at Te Rapa was an unlucky sixth when held up over the 150 when full of running. She has drawn to get every chance and is on a winning weight. RP $3, $4.50 FF, $5.50 Odds Surge.
Flemington
Race 9
Confidence:3/5
11.Mr Blunt was back 3 wide with cover last start and he quickly gathered in the leaders and raced away for a very impressive win. The figures backed it up with the seventh fastest last 200m all day in fast speed rating. All hen can do is improve off that and from the good draw and lighter weight, looks very well placed to win. RP $1.70, $2.20 FF
Ellerslie
Race 1
Confidence:2/5
9.Silky Shuba last start from the wide she snagged back and closed strongly for second in the best closing sectionals. There was a gap to third and the winner is very smart. Drawn well and a good eachway chance. RP $4, $4.60 FF
Race 2
Confidence:1/5 and any one of 7 can win this.
4.The Exponent closed hard to Castle Rock with a dry track action in a leaders race here last start. With a good ride he can get into it and be an eachway chance. RP $5, $6.50 FF
Race 4
Confidence:2/5
4.Frostfair drew wide fresh up here and dropped back and finished strongly for third in the excellent closing sectionals. She will be improved by that and has drawn ideally here. RP $5, $7 FF
Race 5
Confidence:2/5
5.Ruby Rush won easily in the end last start and in an excellent speed rating. She has natural speed, drawn well, and has a good apprentice on claiming 3kgs. She has been freshened up and looks good value at $7. RP $4.50
Race 6
Confidence:2/5
12.Lady Impending won very easily on debut at Rotorua with Wiremu Pinn on board. She ran a very nice trial doing her best work late. Pinn jumps on again and on 54Kgs and drawn the inside she looks a decent eachway chance. RP $4.50, $7.50 FF
Race 7
Confidence:2/5
7.Esternay has gone two nice races back from Australia- the last start fought on well on an unsuitable heavy track. She won third up at Flemington over 1400 here
https://www.racing.com/horses/esternay-5325415#
with a charging late run. The side winkers go on at the right time and with a solid pace predicted, she will get her chance to win third up and peaking now. RP $5, $10 FF
Race 8
Confidence:2/5
18.Clear Conscience has gone good races here in strong fields from wide draws. Drawn ideally here to get a winning run and be right in this. RP $7, $11 FF
Otaki
Race 1
Confidence:2/5
1.Derrick has run two strong placings at his last two starts and drawn well with the right rider on board. RP $3.60, $4.80 FF, $6 Odds Surge
Race 3
Confidence:2/5 1st $4
2.Shamless Star ran a fair race in the much stronger Cambridge Breeders race last start. Drops back in class here and gets 2kg off. RP 3.80, $4.50, $5.50 Odds Surge
Race 4
Confidence:1/5
2.Danjuro ran a good third fresh up and won second up over a middle distance last campaign. He can repeat the pattern here. RP $5, $5.50 FF, 5.50 Odds Surge
Race 5
Confidence:2/5 1st $4
3.Ima Brazen One just went down to Sindee last start and meets her 3kgs better off with the apprentice allowance. If he can begin evenly and lead or sit outside it, he can win this time peaking third up. RP $3, $3.30 FF
Race 6
Confidence:2/5
4.Renovations travelled strongly in the trail and had trouble getting out until too late. Third up now and peaking, so is a nice eachway chance. RP $4, $5, $6 FF
Race 8
Confidence:1/5
1.Creation built to strong win in maiden company and looked smart before that. Strikes an even field and with a good ride is a chance of going back to back. RP $7, $10 FF, $12 Odds Surge
