Cheap Sav was disappointing but she got back off a moderate tempo and ran on ok. Estilo had to win with that run and Erase paid good money for an obvious uncontested leader.
Cambridge preview
Bet of the day Race 5 7.Estilo $1.90 FF 1st $1.70
Value bet of the day Race 4 8.Cheap Sav $12 FF Missed
Speed map Special Race 8 1.Erase $3.40 FF 1st $3.80 and $4.80 tote
Multi of the Day Estilo to win $1.90, Cheap Sav Top 4 $1.85, Erase Top 2 $1.75 $10 returns $61.50 Missed
Posted Tuesday 5 pm. When possible I will try and post some previews the day before so you can have time to digest the form. And I will mention any bets worthwhile backing now. Keeping in mind that the markets are set to around 130% and come into around 120% meaning most runners will drift in price. Feel free to comment about the new format. The feedback so far has generally been positive with constructive ideas like showing a Rated price market and shorter summary of the race at the beginning of each race.
In the fourth race tomorrow, Cheap Sav has been identified as a runner well over the odds at $14 FF. She has won second up at her last 3 campaigns and went a nice race race fresh up over 970m which is too short for her. She is rated a $3.50 chance so is tremendous value, so I rang Trainer Tarissa MacDonald, and she is very happy with her and she has done very well since her fresh up run. She is doing rider Sienna Brown’s rides and she jokingly said, “She owes me one! ”
Race 1
I have had a look at race 1 but it has a few chances and there is no value so pass.
Race 2
Confidence:2/5
This 1550m rating contest presents as a competitive affair with an even tempo likely. On form, ratings, map and market, the race centres on 3 Delz Abeel, 2 Spanish Lad, 1 Solidify and 7 Ballbeena. Delz Abeel brings the strongest recent profile and is the deserved favourite, Spanish Lad is thriving on the synthetic and maps ideally, Solidify has the class edge and superior historical FormPro peaks, while Ballbeena appeals as the progressive lightweight. 4 What A Yarn and 5 Lerado rate as the next most plausible winning hopes should the race shape suit.
3 Delz Abeel is the one to beat. He was an excellent runner-up to Spanish Lad here over this trip last start after conceding ground early and being checked at a key stage, so the run carried more merit than the margin suggests. His recent FormPro ratings around 101 to 104 are right on top for this grade, and he is a proven synthetic performer at both course and distance. From barrier 4 he should secure midfield cover and be presented at the right time. At around $2.80 with TAB he is short enough, but his profile is the clearest in the field and he remains the horse to run down. Rated price (110%): $3.20. Underlay at current TAB odds.
2 Spanish Lad rates as one of the principal hopes after a strong win here over 1550m last start, where he settled prominently and finished off well. His synthetic record is excellent, his distance profile is proven, and recent FormPro ratings between 101 and 106 keep him firmly in contention. From barrier 5 he should settle in the first half of the field, and the 2kg claim is a meaningful advantage. TAB has him around $5.50, which looks a fair reflection of his chances. With proven course-and-distance form and a favourable map, he is entitled to be in the finish again. Rated price (110%): $5.50. Fair at current TAB odds.
1 Solidify resumed with a modest effort at Otaki, but his overall profile is stronger than that suggests and his FormPro peaks around 109 are among the best in this field. He has been competitive in better races, drops to a more suitable grade and draws ideally to secure a economical run from the inside. The 61kg is a genuine test and the 1550m is a minor query, but the speed map gives him every chance to hold position and conserve energy. At around $8.50 with TAB, he profiles as a legitimate each-way chance if he can return to his better middle-distance form. Rated price (110%): $6.50. Overlay at current TAB odds.
7 Ballbeena profiles as a genuine chance. She was impressive winning at Te Rapa two starts back and returns here freshened, with the 54kg a clear advantage. Her FormPro ratings do not quite match the top pair, but the recent 100 is more than competitive in this field. From barrier 6 she maps to settle in a handy position without expending too much early, and the rise from 1400m to 1550m looks suitable. TAB has her around $8.50, which appears a fair quote. She has upside relative to some of the more exposed runners and should be in the finish with even luck. Rated price (110%): $7.50. Slight overlay at current TAB odds.
4 What A Yarn 1st $12 is worth another chance after a plain run at Te Rapa. His first-up win at Te Aroha two starts back was strong, and his FormPro ratings around 100 to 102 are competitive for a race of this nature. The rise to 1550m suits better than 1400m, he maps to settle just off the speed from a midfield draw, and the drop to 55kg is in his favour. He lacks the synthetic profile of some of the key runners, but the race shape is suitable and his best form measures up. At around $8.50 Paid $12 tote and $10 FF with TAB, he appeals as a genuine value contender. Rated price (110%): $8.00. Marginal overlay at current TAB odds.
5 Lerado comes through the key lead-up over this course and distance where he boxed on well for third behind Spanish Lad and Delz Abeel. That performance reads well here and his FormPro ratings around 99 to 103 confirm he is competitive. He generally settles off midfield, so an even tempo may not be ideal, but he is capable of finishing off if the race develops more pressure than expected. He is a proven miler with enough synthetic form to remain under notice. TAB has him around $8.50, which gives him sound each-way appeal in what looks a very suitable race. Rated price (110%): $8.50. Fair at current TAB odds.
6 Just A Karin is an interesting runner at odds. She brings the highest recent FormPro figure in the field at 107, achieved in stronger staying company, and the weight drop is a clear positive. The key question is the return to 1550m, as her best recent performances have come over longer trips. From a soft draw she should secure a reasonable run, but whether she can hold a tactical position in an even-tempo race is the concern. If the pressure goes on early she can finish into the race strongly. At around $15 with TAB, she is a credible knockout chance rather than a complete outsider. Rated price (110%): $11.00. Overlay at current TAB odds.
9 Vivace broke through decisively here over 1550m last start after rolling forward and taking control from the 500m. It was a clear improvement in performance, although his broader FormPro profile remains below that of the main chances, with ratings in the mid-90s. From the wide draw he may need to press on again or risk covering extra ground, so the speed map is critical to his chances. If he finds the front cheaply he can measure up, but this is a stronger race. At around $8.50 with TAB, he is respected off the last-start win without being a standout. Rated price (110%): $12.00. Overlay at current TAB odds.
8 Bertie Wooster is more difficult to assess. He won his maiden over 2100m at Pukekohe in February, but this looks a sharper assignment and his recent FormPro ratings in the low to mid-90s leave him with ground to make up. The map suggests he may settle midfield or worse from barrier 8, which could leave him vulnerable if the tempo is only moderate. There is some upside given his light racing, but the synthetic sprint home may not play to his strengths. At around $15 with TAB, he is not the worst outsider, though others have stronger credentials on form and race shape. Rated price (110%): $15.00. Fair at current TAB odds.
10 La Querida is capable on the synthetic at her best, but she resumes off a poor fresh run at Ellerslie where she missed the start and was never a factor. Her earlier course-and-distance form is sound enough, and her better FormPro ratings around the high 90s would give her some hope in this grade. The concern is tactical: she can settle back, and from barrier 9 in a race that does not appear overly strong in tempo, she may be reliant on circumstances. TAB has her around $21, which accurately reflects the risk. She would need to improve sharply to trouble the leading hopes. Rated price (110%): $21.00. Fair at current TAB odds.
11 Frosbie appears to face a stiff task. His recent form has been below the required standard and his current FormPro ratings around 91 to 97 leave him short of the principal chances. He finished ninth here in this grade last start and did not show enough to suggest a sharp turnaround is imminent. The draw and 54kg are both acceptable, but the speed map still has him settling only midfield in a race where several rivals have stronger tactical speed and superior ratings. At around $51 with TAB, he is difficult to recommend and would need a marked form reversal to feature. Rated price (110%): $34.00. Overlay at current TAB odds.
Race 3
A race lacking recent race form so pass.
Race 4
Confidence:3/5
The speed map shows a solid pace suiting off pace runners.
Race Preview: A genuine tempo is expected over 1300m, which should suit runners who can finish off. On recent form, FormPro ratings and the market, the four key chances look to be 8 Cheap Sav, Domain Ace, 7 Kasukedo, and 3 Colonel Warden. 8 Cheap Sav brings the right profile and is well weighted. Domain Ace brings the strongest ratings profile and deserves favouritism, while Kasukedo maps to get every chance from a soft draw. Colonel Warden is a logical danger with tactical speed, Recommended bets: 8 Cheap Sav is a big overlay.
8 Cheap Sav She got detached from the field when the sprint went on then finished off ok along the rail. They didn’t go as hard as expected and came home in 34.74 is well placed here and could cause an upset at good TAB odds. She has mixed recent form, but her historical synthetic 1300m performances are very good especially second up. She has won three times second up and went a good race fresh battling on well over 970m here. The speed map suggests she may settle midfield or worse, so she will need the predicted pressure to fully suit. The apprentices 4kg weight allowance puts her on top and TAB fixed odds around $14.00 suggest she is an outsider, and that seems well over the odds. Rated price: $3.50 (110%).
4 Domain Ace resumes as the runner with the peak FormPro figures in this field, having posted ratings up to 106, clearly superior to most of these. His recent form looks plain, but he has been competitive in stronger 75-grade company and now drops to a more suitable level. The speed map and draw suggest he can land in a stalking spot with Bruno Queiroz aboard, which is ideal in a race expected to run along. TAB fixed odds of around $3.30 are short but understandable given the ratings edge. He is an underlay only because he still has to convert that class drop into performance. Rated price: $4.00 (110%).
7 Kasukedo looks one of the hardest to beat. He resumed with a tidy fourth here over 1300m, closing off well enough to suggest he strips fitter second-up, and his FormPro range around 98-102 keeps him right in the mix. He has early speed, draws to get a cosy run, and the predicted genuine tempo should help him finish more strongly late. The current TAB quote around $3.30 makes him a major player, though there is not a lot of fat in that price. His profile says winning chance rather than risk horse. Market looks about fair to slightly under the true odds, so only a mild underlay. Rated price: $4.20 (110%).
3 Colonel Warden is a practical winning hope after a sound freshen-up run when sixth, only 2.5 lengths away, in a race where he covered extra ground. He owns a recent FormPro peak of 97 and has enough tactical speed to settle on or just behind the pace from barrier 6, which is an asset in a race with pressure expected. His best efforts last prep at synthetic tracks over this trip read well for this assignment. The TAB fixed odds around $4.80 are close to his real chance and arguably a touch generous if you forgive the wide run last start. Slight overlay. Rated price: $5.50 (110%).
5 Oban is the value angle. He resumed with a fair fourth over 970m and now rises to his preferred 1300m, where his synthetic-track record is strong. FormPro numbers around 98-101 keep him competitive with the better fancies, and from the inside draw he should enjoy an economical run just behind the speed. If the leaders overdo it, he is one who can capitalise late. The TAB fixed odds around $9.00 look appealing relative to his profile, especially as his course-and-distance statistics are solid. He is an overlay and a sound each-way proposition. Rated price: $8.50 (110%).
9 Bannen has some rough place appeal but looks more of a fringe top-four chance than a win play. He won a maiden three starts back and has since been fair without threatening, while his FormPro ratings in the mid-90s leave him a little short of the main hopes. From barrier 3 he should secure a reasonable run, but he still needs to show he can elevate in this grade against proven synthetic performers. The TAB fixed odds around $9.00 feel a touch short given his ceiling compared with the top picks. He profiles as an underlay unless the market eases. Rated price: $16.00 (110%).
6 Berry Brown is the tricky runner. She won a maiden well at 1600m last spring and has changed barns since, but she returns from a long spell with only modest recent trial evidence and FormPro ratings topping out well below the leading trio. The speed map offers some hope she can settle handier than a few of these, yet 1300m fresh may be on the sharp side. The TAB fixed odds around $6.50 imply a strong chance, but that looks too aggressive on exposed data. Clear underlay at the current quote and difficult to back with confidence. Rated price: $15.00 (110%).
2 Jack In The Box rates the outsider despite carrying no weight and having some older staying wins on the board. His recent FormPro figures mostly sit around 100-102 at best, but they were achieved over longer trips and he returns from a lengthy break into a sharper 1300m. The speed map and likely strong tempo are not ideal for a horse whose best work has generally been over more ground. TAB fixed odds around $26.00 probably reflect his realistic chance, and if anything he still looks a little short given the setup. Mild underlay. Rated price: $31.00 (110%).
Race 5
Confidence:3/5
The speed map shows an even tempo suiting all runners
Race 5 Preview A sharp 970m maiden on the synthetic where race fitness and tactical speed matter. The speed map suggests an even tempo, so runners settling handy and finishing off should get every chance. The four main chances look 7 Estilo, 6 Impressive Belle Scr , 1 Batu and 3 Jack High. Recommended bets: 7 Estilo to win, saver on 6 Impressive Belle, and 1 Batu each-way if the place price holds.
7 Estilo Form reads beautifully for this: resumed with a strong second to Angels Brew which was second outer, over this 970m trip here, sitting wide and still fighting hard. That run produced the best recent FormPro figure in this field and she maps to get a softer run from gate 6 with cover and with natural improvement second-up looks clearly the one to beat. TAB has her a clear favourite at around $1.90, which reflects the profile. Clearly the runner to beat on exposed current form. Overlay/Underlay: Slight overlay at current odds. Rated price (110%): $1.70
Dangers in order:
1 Batu Returned from a spell with two sound trials and his previous preparation had enough merit for a race like this, including a close-up fourth fresh and a 91 peak FormPro rating. From barrier 2 he should park handy and get every favour off the even speed map. The concern is that he has had chances in three starts and still must prove he can convert promise into a winning finish. TAB has him at $4.60, which gives some appeal if he resumes as well as he trialled. Solid each-way player. Overlay/Underlay: Small overlay. Rated price (110%): $5.00
3 Jack High Debutant with limited exposed data, but the market says he is ready and the stable note is positive. Trialled adequately at Avon and now lands in a maiden where several rivals have had many chances. From gate 7 he may need to do a little work early, though the even speed map means he can still slot in without the race getting away from him. With no race-day FormPro profile there is some guesswork, but the TAB keeping him at $6.00 suggests he has shown enough privately. Respect on debut. Overlay/Underlay: Fair at the quote. Rated price (110%): $6.00
8 Smashing Sister A long-time maiden, but not hopeless in a race of this depth. Recent FormPro ratings around 88-90 are competitive enough for a placing and she has the tactical speed to be involved early from gate 5. The issue is that she has repeatedly found little late and her synthetic profile is not as convincing as some of the main hopes. TAB around $9.50 feels close to the mark: she can run well without winning. More a trifecta and first-four contender than a prime win play. Overlay/Underlay: About right. Rated price (110%): $9.80
4 Mivirgo Honest enough in patches and his older Cambridge synthetic efforts give him some rough place hope, but his recent profile is hard to love. First-up this campaign he was well beaten over the same course and distance, and while his FormPro ratings have touched the low 90s before, his current level looks short of the best of these. Wide draw adds another layer of difficulty even in an evenly run race. TAB has him at $19.00, which is understandable. Needs sharp improvement and probably a few others to underperform. Overlay/Underlay: Slight underlay. Rated price (110%): $22.00
2 Hurricane Hartley Lightly raced and trialled into this, but his debut run at Matamata was plain and his only published FormPro figure is well below the main contenders. He does get in light enough after the claim and barrier 3 gives him a chance to settle closer than last time, which helps in a 970m event. Still, on exposed form he needs a big spike to trouble the leading chances. TAB at $18.00 is not especially tempting given what he has shown so far. Market watch only. Overlay/Underlay: Underlay. Rated price (110%): $26.00
5 Shatin Brings some older synthetic form, but the overall profile is that of a runner who has had plenty of opportunities and is returning from another long break. His FormPro ratings do not match the top hopes and his best recent efforts were over longer trips, so the 970m looks a genuine test of sharpness first-up. Barrier 4 is fine and the claim helps, yet he still looks to need a perfect run plus improvement. TAB has him at $23.00, which is probably still shorter than I would want. Hard to recommend. Overlay/Underlay: Underlay. Rated price
Race 6
Confidence:2/5
The Speed Map shows a good pace likely suiting off pace runners
A sharp 970m synthetic sprint with a good tempo predicted. The main chances look to be 1 Brazen Affair, 2 Lady Iris, 6 Karyon and 3 Perfect Dividends. 1 Brazen Affair brings the best established course-and-distance profile, while 2 Lady Iris has the class spike if she reproduces her stronger 3YO form. 6 Karyon maps to get a soft run with no weight and was excellent latest, while 3 Perfect Dividends has ratings that say he can bounce back. Recommended bets: win 1 Brazen Affair; saver/each-way 6 Karyon; quinella 1,2,6.
1 Brazen Affair
Hard to ignore on her synthetic 970m profile: three wins and four placings from eight at the trip/track setup, and she has previously strung together dominant Cambridge wins. Her recent FormPro figures (98, 99, with older peaks to 105) are not explosive but stack up well here, and the speed map’s genuine tempo suits a mare who can settle off them and finish late. TAB has her favourite at $3.20, which reflects her superior proven profile more than current brilliance. Query is recent plain form in stronger grades, but this is easier. Overlay/Underlay: slight underlay at current quote. Rated price (110%): $3.60.
Dangers in order:
6 Karyon
A very interesting lightweight chance. She produced one of the better last-start runs in this field when beaten only 0.22L here at 970m, posting a 102 FormPro figure, and her previous 1000m placing confirms she is well suited in short-course races. The speed map suggests she can land just behind the speed from gate 6, and with only 54kg she gets every favour. Her overall strike rate is modest, but this looks her right race shape and grade. TAB lists her at $6.50, which may underestimate the strength of that latest effort. Overlay/Underlay: overlay. Rated price (110%): $5.80.
3 Perfect Dividends
His recent form is patchy, but he has enough ratings substance to measure up if he returns to his better efforts. FormPro peaks of 102–104 in this campaign are competitive, and his tactical pattern from barrier 2 should allow him to hold a handy spot in a race run at genuine speed. The knock is that he has not been racing with much consistency and his latest 94 was below the level needed. Still, this field lacks depth after the top few, and the apprentice claim helps. TAB has him at $6.50, which is about the right zone. Overlay/Underlay: around fair value. Rated price (110%): $6.80.
5 Opaea Joe
Comes off an upset win at Tauranga and has drawn to use his natural speed again. The map points to him being prominent from barrier 1, and with only 50.5kg after the claim he gets a significant pull in the weights. His last-start FormPro 97 was solid rather than spectacular, and his overall ratings profile (mostly high-90s) leaves him vulnerable to the better-performed runners if they fire. Still, he is a tough horse who can pinch these races when allowed control or a soft lead. TAB’s $9.50 is not absurd but probably captures the upside. Overlay/Underlay: about fair, maybe a tiny underlay. Rated price (110%): $10.00.
7 Catoca
Lightly raced and first-up she wasn’t disgraced when third here behind Anton, posting a 100 FormPro figure. That gives her some hope, especially with only 54kg, but she does need to find a couple of lengths on the top picks. The speed map suggests she may land midfield or slightly worse from gate 8, so she will need the race to set up for a late run. Her synthetic stats are encouraging and there could still be upside, but her winning profile is not yet established. TAB has her at $9.50, which feels only fair. Overlay/Underlay: fair to slight underlay. Rated price (110%): $11.00.
Race 7
Confidence:3/5
The speed map shows a genuine pace suiting off pace runners getting a cosy trip.
This 2000m synthetic looks set up by a genuine tempo, and the speed map says that should suit runners settling just off the pace or finishing over the top. Skymax brings the right profile after a dominant course-and-distance win and is the horse to beat despite short TAB odds. Solidify has the best peak FormPro figures in the field and can improve sharply second-up in easier grade. Lovaci is a proven mare in this band and gets a chance to rebound at a staying trip, while Prometheus profiles as the value runner off a strong 2000m second. Recommended bets: win Skymax; saver Solidify; each-way Prometheus.
4 Skymax 1st and won well was excellent winning over this course and distance last start, beating Prometheus by nearly eight lengths and confirming the 2000m suits. Her recent FormPro ratings around 103 are not the highest in the race, but they stack up strongly in this grade and she gets a light 54.5kg. The speed map is a plus because she can settle handy without overworking and control or stalk the tempo. TAB fixed odds around $1.90 make her clearly the market elect, but that is short in a staying race. She is still the horse to beat on current form. Overlay/underlay: slight underlay at the current quote. Rated price (110%): $2.30
Dangers In order:
1 Solidify scratched has the best historical FormPro profile in the race with peaks of 109 and a fresh-run 105 in stronger company at Otaki. He drops back into easier grade, and his older staying form says 2000m is right in range. The speed map should help because he can settle midfield and use his finish if the tempo is genuine. His first-up run was better than it reads after covering ground throughout, and natural improvement makes him a major threat. TAB fixed odds around $7.50 look attractive against his class edge if he returns near his best. Overlay/underlay: clear overlay. Rated price (110%): $5.80
| 2 Lovaci is a capable mare whose best recent figures around 104 put her in the mix, and her win two starts ago over 1560m showed she still has enough dash to hold a position. The tongue tie goes on after she reportedly got her tongue over the bit last start, which may help her finish off better at 2000m. From the speed map she should land closer than some of the other closers, and that can be a plus if the tempo is only even. TAB fixed odds around $5.50 are fair enough rather than generous. She is one of the key hopes, but the trip still carries a query. Overlay/underlay: about right to slight underlay. Rated price (110%): $6.20
3 Prometheus shapes as the value chance. He comes off a solid second over this course and distance behind Skymax and has been racing consistently enough in staying races to suggest another honest run. His recent FormPro ratings around 98-102 are a shade below the top pair, but his older ceiling ratings to 107 say he can measure up when things fall his way. The speed map looks suitable because he can settle off the speed and build into the race late. TAB fixed odds around $9.00 appeal as an each-way quote in this field. Overlay/underlay: overlay. Rated price (110%): $7.80 7 Novak is the grinder of the race and his recent New Plymouth third over 1800m suggested he is close to another competitive staying run. His FormPro ratings have been hovering around 99-101 lately, but he has older figures to 105 which keep him in the wider hopes. The speed map is suitable because a true tempo lets him settle back and work into the race, which is his preferred pattern. He rarely wins but he can fill a placing when conditions suit. TAB fixed odds around $11.00 are not outrageous and give him some each-way appeal for trifectas and first fours. Overlay/underlay: slight overlay. Rated price (110%): $10.50 5 Naughty Grannie is the upside filly. She bolted in at her first try over 2000m here, winning her maiden by a big margin, ( although in slow time) and that immediately brings her into calculations against older horses. The knock is that her FormPro ratings are only in the mid-90s so far, well below the established top chances, and she now rises sharply in class. The speed map should suit because she can settle quietly and finish if they run along. TAB fixed odds around $9.00 are interesting for those wanting upside, but the market may already have found her. Overlay/underlay: about right. Rated price (110%): $9.50 8 Melkor is not hopeless, but he needs to rebound. His better efforts this prep came when placed over 1600m and then running a close fifth over 2100m at Ellerslie, although he weakened last start when in a good spot. His recent FormPro ratings around 92-98 leave him short of the leading hopes, but he does at least have prior winning form at 2000m on synthetic. The speed map could assist if he relaxes off the tempo and saves a run for late. TAB fixed odds around $14.00 are easy to see for a horse needing to improve. Overlay/underlay: slight underlay. Rated price (110%): $15.00 6 Opera Belle has won staying races in the past, but this campaign has been poor and her latest FormPro numbers of 83, 90 and 99 say she is not racing near her top. She does get in light with the claim and 2000m is more suitable than the shorter trips she has been contesting, so there is a small case for improvement. The speed map is acceptable because she can race handier than some of these, but she still needs to find lengths. TAB fixed odds around $23.00 reflect that challenge accurately. Overlay/underlay: about right to slight underlay. Rated price (110%): $24.00 9 Wry Smile resumes after 140 days and was only moderate at the end of his last campaign. He has some 2000m credentials from earlier in his career and has placed several times at this trip, but his recent FormPro ratings in the low 90s are comfortably below what is usually needed here. The inside draw could help him save ground in a race where the speed map points to a fair tempo, yet he still looks to need the run and a career peak to threaten. TAB fixed odds around $17.00 are not enough to tempt strongly first-up. Overlay/underlay: underlay. Rated price (110%): $21.00 Race 8 Confidence:2/5 The speed map shows a slowly run race favouring on pace runners.
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Race Preview This looks a slowly run 2000m maiden, with 1 Erase likely to control the speed from the inside. That gives the race shape a tactical edge, especially against runners who usually settle back. The four main chances look to be 2 Unodostrescuatro, 1 Erase, 6 Nature’s Beauty and 3 Marcos. 2 Unodostrescuatro brings the strongest overall form profile and the most reliable Formpro ratings, while 1 Erase gets every chance if left alone in front. 6 Nature’s Beauty is still learning but has upside at the trip, and 3 Marcos has enough staying form to measure up. Recommended bets: win 2 Unodostrescuatro; saver win 1 Erase; each-way 6 Nature’s Beauty.
2 Unodostrescuatro has the best exposed form in this field and profiles as the runner to beat. His recent form guide reads well for this grade, and his Formpro ratings have been consistently strong, peaking at 95 and holding around the low 90s, which is superior to most of these. The speed map suggests only a modest tempo, so Opie Bosson will need to keep him within striking range from barrier 8, but he has shown he can sustain a run over ground. TAB fixed odds around $1.90 make him short, but understandable given the depth of his placings. He is still a maiden, so there is a slight risk at the quote. Overlay/underlay: slight underlay. Rated price (110%): $2.30.
Dangers in order:
1 Erase 1st $3.80 FF and $4.80 tote got the soft lead he needed and walked in $4.80 gets a major tactical tick from the speed map, which indicates he should find the front cheaply from barrier 1 in what looks a slowly run race. His recent form guide has improved sharply, with a second ( relegated from 1st) at Tauranga, and before that was an unlucky 6th here when held up, after also rating well enough at Avondale. Formpro figures of 94, 93 and 94 stack up strongly here and make him a genuine winning hope if he handles the pressure late. The main knock is his tendency to lay out under pressure, noted again last start, but the inside draw and claim help offset that. TAB fixed odds around $3.40 appeal more than the favourite’s quote. Overlay/underlay: overlay. Rated price (110%): $2.50.
6 Nature’s Beauty is lightly raced and looks one of the more interesting improvers. Her form guide is building the right way, and last-start fourth over this course and distance suggested she is starting to understand the staying assignment. Formpro ratings of 69, 82 and then 90 show significant progression, and with the 4kg claim she gets in attractively at the weights. The speed map says the race may be slowly run, which is the slight concern because she may have to sprint rather than grind, but she should still get a soft trail. TAB fixed odds around $9.00 look fair for a filly with upside in this field. Overlay/underlay: slight overlay. Rated price (110%): $7.80.
3 Marcos is not easy to catch, but he rates as one of the better rough chances. His recent form guide is mixed, yet his run three starts ago at Tauherenikau and his previous staying efforts indicate he can be competitive in a race like this. Formpro ratings of 92, 90 and 80 tell the story: he has enough ability, but his latest Tauranga failure was below standard. From barrier 6 he should land midfield, and in a slowly run race he may need to be closer than usual. TAB fixed odds around $13.00 are tempting if you forgive the last start and trust the earlier ratings. Overlay/underlay: overlay. Rated price (110%): $10.50.
7 Allthekingshorses is still very raw, but there was at least some late improvement second up over 1600m and the rise to 2000m may help. Her form guide is thin compared with the main hopes, though the stable is capable of producing improvement quickly. Formpro ratings of 81 and 87 leave her with a bit to find, but not hopelessly so in a moderate maiden. The speed map suggests she could settle worse than midfield, and that may make it hard to sprint past the top pair if the tempo is only steady. TAB fixed odds around $7.50 look short enough on what she has shown so far. Overlay/underlay: underlay. Rated price (110%): $10.00.
7 Allthekingshorses is still very raw, but there was at least some late improvement second up over 1600m and the rise to 2000m may help. Her form guide is thin compared with the main hopes, though the stable is capable of producing improvement quickly. Formpro ratings of 81 and 87 leave her with a bit to find, but not hopelessly so in a moderate maiden. The speed map suggests she could settle worse than midfield, and that may make it hard to sprint past the top pair if the tempo is only steady. TAB fixed odds around $7.50 look short enough on what she has shown so far. Overlay/underlay: underlay. Rated price (110%): $10.00.
4 Idris has shown only limited promise in five starts, but the move to 2000m did produce a slightly better effort when fifth at Cambridge. His form guide still lacks a genuine winning run, although Formpro ratings of 93 and 88 from his latest two starts suggest he can be more competitive than the market expects if he settles close enough. The issue is that the speed map does not give him a major tactical edge, and he may be left chasing from midfield in a race that could turn into a sit-and-sprint. TAB fixed odds around $34.00 are big, but he still looks more a rough place knockout than a winning threat. Overlay/underlay: slight overlay. Rated price (110%): $26.00.
5 Arkadus has had plenty of chances and is still searching for a breakthrough. His form guide shows the odd competitive staying run in past preparations, but his recent efforts have been plain and his best Formpro ratings now sit below the main hopes. The speed map may allow him to hold a midfield spot from barrier 3, which helps, yet he still needs a significant form reversal. TAB fixed odds around $17.00 are not enough to tempt given his lack of recent finishing power, especially with stronger and more progressive rivals around him. He can plug on, but looks more likely to fill a lower first-four slot than win. Overlay/underlay: underlay. Rated price (110%): $23.00.
