Two well placed runners who look very hard to beat. Bonnard and Cheval De Foudre. I’ll post the next update by 10.30 am tomorrow.
I must mention why I hardly ever recommend a Same Race Multi. Simple, the place odds are so under the odds that it is almost impossible to make a long term profit. They are pushed by certain Trackside presenters and they do a great job of recommending and highlighting them. But when the odds are so pour on Top 3, that flows right through to the Top ten they are offering on some races.
I was so used to getting far better odds on Betfair, that I find it very hard to bet into so pour odds.
The speed map shows a good pace is likely.
A genuinely run 1200m Open Handicap is expected with the speed map indicating a strong tempo, bringing the off-speed runners right into contention. Little Bit Of Love brings the strongest recent form and ratings profile into the race, while Force Of Nature maps perfectly from the inside draw and rates highly on FormPro figures. Tristar should relish the expected speed and gets conditions to suit, while Kia Kaha is an emerging mare who arrives off a strong last-start victory. These look the four key winning hopes.
3 LITTLE BIT OF LOVE 2nd
Returned in excellent order this campaign with a dominant first-up win before another strong effort when third behind Bright Stripes. His recent FormPro ratings are among the best in the field and he consistently measures up at this level. The strong tempo should allow him to settle midfield before producing his customary finish. Proven on rain-affected ground and his Time Test pedigree suggests he can handle any deterioration in conditions. Drawn wide but possesses tactical versatility and should get every opportunity. Carries weight but the apprentice claim offsets much of that burden. With fitness on his side and recent form superior to most rivals, he looks the horse they all have to beat.
2 FORCE OF NATURE
A quality performer whose FormPro ratings stack up strongly against this field. His recent efforts in Open Handicap company have been sound without much luck and he maps to enjoy an ideal run from barrier one. The strong tempo should ensure gaps appear when required and Craig Grylls is likely to have him poised behind the leaders throughout. Savabeel progeny generally cope well with softer conditions and his own record on rain-affected ground is excellent. Te Rapa statistics are particularly impressive and he has a proven record at the distance. Carries topweight but remains one of the class runners in the field. Major winning chance.
8 TRISTAR 1st $3
Has been racing consistently throughout the preparation and her recent FormPro ratings keep her firmly in contention. The speed map is a major positive as she is likely to settle off the pace before launching late into a race expected to be run at a genuine tempo. Her record on both soft and heavy ground is solid and she has repeatedly produced competitive performances against similar opposition. Freshened since her last run and drops to a very attractive weight. Her closing sectionals have been strong this campaign and she appears set to get ideal race conditions. One of the leading winning hopes.
12 KIA KAHA
Progressive mare who arrives off a strong victory at Te Rapa where she showed determination to score over 1200m. Her recent FormPro profile indicates continued improvement and she receives a significant advantage at the weights. The speed map suggests she can settle just behind the speed and secure a comfortable trip throughout. Super Seth progeny have shown an ability to perform on rain-affected tracks and she has already demonstrated effectiveness on soft surfaces. Still lightly raced and appears capable of further progression. Faces stronger opposition here but has the upside to match them. Strong each-way contender.
9 MISS BO PEEP
Won impressively two starts ago before finding stronger company a little beyond her at Ellerslie. Her FormPro ratings place her among the better chances and she drops back into a more suitable contest. Maps to settle near the speed from a favourable draw and should get every chance. Proven around Te Rapa and possesses a good record on softer surfaces. The strong pace won’t hurt her chances and she has enough tactical speed to secure a prominent position. If she reproduces the performance that defeated Tristar two starts back she can easily figure in the finish.
11 JETHRO TULL 3rd
Interesting resuming runner who showed good ability before going for a spell. Recent trial performances have been encouraging and his FormPro ratings suggest he is capable of measuring up in this grade. The wide draw is a concern but the anticipated strong tempo should allow him to settle back and finish off. Handles rain-affected tracks and Warren Kennedy is a significant booking. Fresh horses often perform well in these Open Handicaps and he profiles as one capable of surprising at odds. Worth including in wider combinations.
5 REWARD SMILE
Classy gelding with an outstanding overall record but resumes after a break. Recent trial form has been encouraging, including a comfortable trial win on a heavy track, though his race fitness remains the key question. FormPro ratings from previous campaigns are competitive enough to put him in the mix. Drawn well and should enjoy a soft run behind the pace. His wet-track profile is less convincing than some rivals but his natural ability keeps him under consideration. May improve with the run but has enough class to be competitive.
4 CLEAT
Produced a first-up victory earlier in the campaign but his form has tapered since. Recent FormPro ratings have slipped slightly below the leading hopes although the apprentice claim helps considerably. Barrier thirteen complicates matters and he may be forced to work early. Usually races on speed and could be vulnerable late given the anticipated strong tempo. His record on softer tracks is respectable and he has proven competitive at this level previously. Needs to rediscover his best form to threaten but cannot be dismissed entirely.
6 CAITLYNS WISH
Resumes after a lengthy absence and recent trial performances suggest she has returned in reasonable shape. Historically her best performances have come on rain-affected tracks and her Belardo pedigree supports that profile. FormPro ratings from previous campaigns indicate she possesses enough talent to be competitive. The speed map should allow her to settle midfield with cover before finishing off. Fitness remains the major query against race-hardened rivals and she may be better suited later in the preparation. Place prospects appear stronger than winning prospects.
7 TAKESHI
Recent race form has been disappointing but his latest trial win hinted at improvement. The gear changes may assist and the strong tempo expected here could help him settle and finish off better than he has recently. His FormPro ratings remain below the leading chances and he needs significant improvement to threaten. Handles rain-affected tracks reasonably well and the lightweight is a positive. Capable of running better than recent results suggest but still looks more a rough place chance than a winning prospect.
13 MISS FLADGATE
Failed to make an impact first-up but generally improves with racing and her second-up record is respectable. Wet conditions are a positive given her strong soft-track statistics and Russian Revolution progeny often perform well with some give in the ground. The speed map should provide a suitable trailing position. Her FormPro ratings need improvement to match the top selections but she is capable of running into the minor money if returning to her best form. Outside place chance.
1 DUSTY ROAD
Well beaten first-up and his recent FormPro ratings are comfortably below the principal contenders. The strong tempo offers some hope as he can settle back and conserve energy, but recent performances suggest he has a sizeable task ahead. Handles softer conditions and is fitter for the run, yet his overall profile lacks the strength of the leading hopes. Would need to improve sharply to feature.
10 BUTTERFIELD
Veteran galloper whose recent performances have lacked the ratings required to win a race of this quality. The speed map does him no favours from a wide draw and he appears likely to settle back before attempting to make ground late. Proven on rain-affected tracks but recent FormPro figures remain well short of the standard required. Others have stronger current form and greater upside. Looks the weakest winning chance in the field.
Race 9
Confidence:3/5
The speed map shows a moderate to even pace suiting on pace runners.
The speed map points to a steadily run 1600m contest, favouring runners settling on or near the speed. Progressive gelding Bonnard looks the horse to beat after three dominant wins in succession and profiles ideally for the race shape. El Viento has been racing consistently in stronger company and gets every chance from a favourable draw. Tisse should appreciate the slower tempo and has been finishing strongly in recent runs, while Hasstobeawinner comes off a deserved Ellerslie victory and remains a major threat despite top weight. Soft 6 conditions should suit most of the leading contenders.
6 BONNARD
The progressive runner of the field and clearly the horse to beat. His FormPro ratings continue to improve with each start and his three consecutive wins have been increasingly dominant, including a 3.5-length victory at Te Rapa last start. Up in classThe speed map is a major positive as he can settle on or near the lead in a race lacking genuine tempo. Swiss Ace progeny generally handle some give in the ground and his own soft-track record is excellent. Lightly raced with upside still to come, he carries only 54kg after the claim and looks perfectly placed to continue his winning sequence. Deserves favouritism. RP $2.20, $3.20 FF, $3.60 Leg Up Boost
5 EL VIENTO
Ultra-consistent this preparation and his recent FormPro ratings match up strongly against the best in this field. He was narrowly beaten by Little Bit Of Love before producing two excellent efforts over this distance, including a placing behind Hasstobeawinner at Ellerslie. Drawn ideally to secure a stalking run just behind the leaders, which is advantageous given the predicted slow pace. El Roca progeny generally perform well on rain-affected tracks and his own wet-track profile is solid. Carries a manageable weight and Craig Grylls is a key booking. Looks set for another genuine performance and is a leading winning chance.
4 TISSE 1st $16
Produced an encouraging return to form when charging home for third at Otaki and looks ready to peak third-up. His FormPro ratings remain competitive at this level and the inside draw should allow him to settle much closer than in recent starts. While the slow pace is not ideal for a horse who likes to finish off, the apprentice claim helps offset that challenge. Belardo progeny are generally effective on softer surfaces and conditions should hold no fears. Proven at the mile and has enough class to take advantage if the leaders overdo it. Strong top-four contender.
1 HASSTOBEAWINNER
Returned to winning form with a powerful finishing effort at Ellerslie and brings some of the highest FormPro ratings into the race. The rise in weight is offset by a valuable apprentice claim and his recent form suggests he is racing as well as ever. The slow speed map is the main concern as he generally settles back and produces one run. Vadamos progeny have shown an aptitude for softer ground and his own wet-track record is excellent. If the pace is stronger than expected he becomes a major winning chance. Respect despite the big weight.
7 AMIRA D’ARGENTO
Honest mare who has been competing consistently against similar opposition. Her FormPro ratings sit just below the leading hopes but remain good enough to be competitive. Drawn to enjoy a soft run just behind the speed and that tactical advantage could prove crucial in a race lacking tempo. D’Argento progeny generally handle rain-affected tracks and she has shown enough on soft ground to suggest conditions will suit. Her recent Open Handicap effort behind Uderzo was sound and she looks capable of running another honest race. Each-way claims.
2 JOSHUA BROWN
Quality galloper who has competed successfully in stronger company than many of these. His recent FormPro ratings remain strong despite not winning recently and his last-start sixth in weight-for-age company was much better than it appears. The rise to 1600m suits and he should secure a midfield position from the draw. Wet ground is no issue and his record at Te Rapa is respectable. Carries significant weight but has the class to overcome it. Capable of surprising if the race develops in his favour.
8 NANCY SHE WROTE
Brings consistent recent form and arrives off a strong finishing second at Te Aroha. Her FormPro ratings continue to trend upward and the mile is clearly her preferred journey. The likely slow tempo is not ideal for her racing style as she generally settles back before launching late. Wrote progeny often handle rain-affected conditions and her own soft-track statistics are encouraging. If she can settle within striking distance she is capable of featuring in the finish. Genuine place chance.
11 DRAMATIC MISS
Has been competitive without winning and her recent FormPro ratings indicate she remains capable of measuring up. She should enjoy a favourable run from a middle draw and the rise to 1600m looks suitable based on previous performances. Soft-track conditions are a slight concern given her overall record but her breeding offers some encouragement. The slow speed map could help her settle closer than usual. More likely to place than win but not without hope.
9 LOVACI
Has struggled at her last two starts over 2000m and now drops back to the mile. Her FormPro ratings are below the leading contenders and she needs improvement to threaten. The return to 1600m may help and the race shape should allow her to settle closer to the speed than in recent outings. Wet ground is not a major issue and she has shown enough ability previously to remain competitive. Place prospects appear stronger than winning prospects.
10 DESERT MYSTIC Scr
Recent performances have been disappointing and his FormPro ratings are well below the top chances. The predicted slow pace may help him settle comfortably, but he has struggled to finish off his races this preparation. Satono Aladdin progeny often appreciate softer tracks and he has previously shown ability at this distance. However, current form is difficult to overlook and he would need a significant turnaround to trouble the leading contenders. Looks the weakest winning prospect in the field.
Race 10
Confidence:2/5
The speed map shows a solid tempo is expected which should suit runners settling just off the speed and finishing strongly
A solid tempo is expected which should suit runners settling just off the speed and finishing strongly. The race looks to revolve around Erin Go Bragh, Rocking, Chante Moi, and Cosmopolitan. Erin Go Bragh brings the highest FormPro ratings and excellent recent form, while Rocking is expected to improve sharply second-up. Chante Moi has been consistently finishing close-up in stronger races and the progressive Cosmopolitan comes off a deserved win. The Soft 6 conditions should suit several leading chances, making for a competitive finish.
- Erin Go Bragh 1st $4.50
Erin Go Bragh profiles as the horse to beat. His FormPro ratings are among the strongest in the field and he comes off an excellent second at Te Rapa when narrowly beaten after racing on pace. The speed map is ideal, allowing him to settle just behind the leaders before striking late. His Vadamos pedigree handles give in the ground and his record on soft tracks is solid. The rise to 1400m looks suitable after two runs back from a spell and the claim further enhances his prospects. Drawn to enjoy a soft run and carrying strong market support as favourite, he looks the most reliable winning chance.
- Rocking
Rocking is capable of a sharp improvement second-up. Her first-up effort at Ellerslie was better than it reads, finishing only 1.65 lengths from the winner after a lengthy break. FormPro ratings place her among the leading contenders and she maps to settle off the anticipated strong tempo, a scenario that should suit perfectly. By El Roca, she has a pedigree that generally handles rain-affected ground well. Her previous form before the spell was very consistent and she owns a strong second-up record. Warren Kennedy takes the ride and if she secures cover from the awkward draw, she can launch late and be right in the finish.
- Chante Moi
Chante Moi has been one of the more consistent mares in this grade. Her recent fourths behind quality opposition have all been full of merit and her FormPro figures measure up strongly. The strong speed forecast is ideal as she does her best work running on from midfield. Savabeel progeny are proven performers on soft tracks and her own record on rain-affected ground is excellent. She has been finishing within a length of the winners in recent starts and only requires a touch of luck from midfield to feature prominently. At the odds she appeals as one of the better each-way chances.
- Cosmopolitan
The progressive filly enters this race full of confidence after breaking through at Te Rapa. She has continued to improve with racing and her FormPro ratings indicate she is capable of measuring up despite rising in grade. Her recent win showed determination and the strong pace should allow her to settle back and finish off. Anders progeny generally cope well with some give in the ground and she has already performed well on soft tracks. The wide draw is the obvious challenge but with only a light weight, a solid tempo and natural improvement on her side, she shapes as a genuine winning threat.
- Sense Of Timing
Sense Of Timing is better than her recent form suggests. Her latest fourth at Otaki was encouraging as she worked home strongly after settling back. FormPro ratings have her within striking distance of the leading hopes and the expected genuine tempo should suit her closing style. Time Test has produced capable wet-track performers and she owns a respectable soft-track record herself. Craig Grylls takes over and from a favourable draw she can secure a more economical run than recent starts. If she builds on her latest effort she is capable of running into the placings.
- New York Belle
New York Belle resumed with a strong win at Waverley and has the profile of a mare still on the rise. Her FormPro ratings are competitive and she draws ideally to obtain a soft run from barrier two. Belardo’s stock generally appreciate softer conditions and she has already won on rain-affected ground. While she rises in class here, the manner of her first-up victory suggested she has more to offer. With natural improvement likely second-up and a favourable map position, she can remain competitive against stronger opposition.
- Overdrawn
Overdrawn was a strong winner at Te Rapa two starts ago before finishing respectably at Ellerslie in a race that didn’t entirely suit. His FormPro ratings remain among the better figures in the field and the step to 1400m is ideal. Shamexpress has produced numerous wet-track performers and Overdrawn has proven effective on soft ground. The concern is the wide draw, which may force him to settle further back than ideal. However, with a solid pace expected he should have the opportunity to work into the race late. A genuine top-four contender.
- Sexy And I Moet
Sexy And I Moet arrives in form after a strong Tauranga victory over this distance. Her FormPro ratings suggest she is competitive and she maps to enjoy a handy run from midfield. Pierro progeny are generally effective on rain-affected tracks and her own soft-track record is sound. The rise in class is the main challenge, but her recent performances indicate she is progressing nicely. George Rooke keeps the ride and the lightweight is an advantage. Not without claims of measuring up.
- Renovations
Renovations has been racing honestly and seldom runs a poor race. Her recent Otaki third was solid and her FormPro ratings place her around the middle of the field. Ardrossan is emerging as a reliable wet-track sire and her soft-track statistics are respectable. The likely strong pace should help her settle and finish off. The wide draw is a hurdle to overcome but if she finds cover she can be competitive in the closing stages. More likely a place chance than a winning prospect.
- Ribkraka
Ribkraka has not shown his best form this preparation but there were signs of improvement last start when finishing strongly from the rear. His FormPro ratings are competitive enough to suggest he can improve further. Ribchester progeny often appreciate soft conditions and his own wet-track form is respectable. The inside draw should allow him to settle closer than recent runs. He needs to find several lengths on the main chances but is not completely without hope if the race unfolds in his favour.
- Twilight Tale
Twilight Tale resumes after a lengthy spell and has trialled encouragingly. Her previous form against stronger company gives her some appeal and her FormPro ratings indicate she possesses enough ability to be competitive. Savabeel bloodlines generally handle soft conditions and she has shown talent throughout her career. However, fitness and race sharpness remain questions against rivals with recent racing under their belts. Market moves would be significant. Capable of surprising but likely better suited once deeper into the preparation.
- Scarlet Temple
Scarlet Temple produced an impressive win three starts ago but failed to fire at Ellerslie last time. Her FormPro ratings are below the leading chances and the wide draw makes life difficult. Redwood progeny can handle softer tracks and she receives a useful claim which helps. If she can reproduce her dominant Rotorua victory she is capable of improvement, but recent evidence suggests she has a few lengths to find. Place claims appear her best hope.
- Bak Da Angel
Bak Da Angel has been competitive without threatening recently. Her FormPro ratings are respectable but not as strong as several key rivals. The Ace High mare generally races best when able to build momentum from midfield and the anticipated tempo may help. Soft-track conditions should not pose an issue based on pedigree. However, her inability to convert opportunities into wins and the rise in pressure here make her difficult to recommend strongly. An outside place chance.
- Live On Air
Live On Air receives a significant weight advantage and has shown flashes of ability this campaign. Her runner-up effort at Ellerslie was encouraging and Proisir progeny generally relish soft ground. However, her FormPro ratings are only moderate and she tends to find one or two better at this level. The low weight keeps her competitive and she should secure a favourable run from the inside half of the field. More of a rough place prospect.
- Daring Pursuit
Daring Pursuit has struggled to recapture his best form this preparation. His FormPro ratings are below the principal contenders and his recent performances suggest he has plenty to find. The step to 1400m may help and he does possess past ability, but there has been little evidence this campaign that he is ready to produce it. The expected strong pace is a positive, though he still appears to be facing a difficult assignment.
- Another Floozie
Another Floozie resumes after four months away from racing and faces a tough challenge from a difficult draw. Her trial performance was encouraging and she has handled soft conditions previously through both pedigree and race record. However, her FormPro ratings are among the lower-ranked runners and she is likely to improve with this run. While capable of producing a better effort than market expectations suggest, others bring stronger current credentials.
- Butterfield
Butterfield is the veteran of the field and his recent form has been well below his best. While some FormPro ratings are surprisingly competitive, his recent race performances have not matched them. Niagara progeny handle rain-affected ground reasonably well and the distance is suitable, but his recent efforts indicate he is struggling to finish off strongly. He would need a significant turnaround to trouble the leading contenders and is rated among the outsiders.
