Te Aroha
An interesting day of racing for a Sunday. And some good value bets.
Bet of the day Race 2 2.Drommy $2.40FF 1st $2.00
Value Bet of the day Race 3 3.Top Street $6 FF 3rd $2.20
Multi of the day My Maebelline Girl $2.30 with Race 2 2.Drommy $2.40 $10 returns $55.20 Yes
Suggested quaddie for 10% costs $20
Te Aroha
Race 1
Confidence:3/5 Bonus Back Race
12.My Maebelline Girl won impressively here at her debut over hurdles and the only mistake she made was getting in a bit close down the back straight but she cleverly got out of it and jumped her next one perfectly. Once in the straight she jumped the last three very well and was hardly touched by the jockey beating race rival The Belvoir easily. She was taken on for a good way too by Juwala and that had enough by the 800m mark. She has since won, leading all the way on the flat. This is harder field though and there a a few handy hurdlers here but she will lead here and the way she jumps and with her pace on the flat, and she seems to be loving her work, it will take a very good effort to beat her. RP $1.70, $2.30 FF
Danger:
1.Hidalgo looks the only danger. He ran a game 4th in an Open Hurdles to Happy Star and third was Billy Boy who won the big race at Trentham. He won a hurdles race at Riccarton easily. Jay has chosen him over My Maebelline Girl so they should make a nice quinella. RP $5, $8.50 FF
Race 2
Confidence:3/5 Bonus Back race.
2.Drommy went a slasher fresh up when he jumped ok then was eased back for cover from the wide draw. Then was held up in the straight but once he was balanced up ran home strongly for third and second was Chappy. He won impressively at Rotorua on Wednesday in a very good speed rating. Drommy took around 3 lengths off him once he got clear. He has a good wet track action whereas second favourite Escape Room does not. He should get a good run midfield with 2kg claimer Sam Mc Nab up and there is nothing else that looks a decent threat. Ran a very good second right handed at the trials at Te Awamutu. Therefore, everything points to win. The only negative is he may be feeling the effect of the fresh up run but on exposed form, he should win. $1.80 $2.40 FF
Danger:
3.Golden Point rana very good trial on a heavy track at Pukekohe running second and was in front just after the post. Alongside him was Kusuda Rush which was hard held though and she won impressively next up at Ellerslie. RP $4.50. $6 FF
Race 3
Confidence:2/5
3.Top Street got up in a slogging finish at Te Rapa and paid $32 at only his second start over a steeples race. Second was Red Ned who ran a very good race to Saint Bernard on Thursday at Trentham. But it wasn’t a fluke. His time was only a few lengths slower than Nedwin’s win the same day. I did the sectionals for that both races and his last 600 was 3 lengths faster than Nedwins off a similar tempo to the 600m. he did race a bit keenly in the early stages but soon settled so he can only improve with that and the shorter distance of 3500m should be right up his alley. Bella Oliver claims 3kgs. She won on him at Te Rapa so knows him well. RP $4, $6 FF
Race 4 First leg of the quaddie
Confidence:2/5
1.Vito was a bit unlucky fresh up then last start second up was 3 wide without cover, moved closer on the turn, and fought very well for third in the fastest of the 4 races over 1400m. He is a half brother to 5 win Ess Vee Ar so has some good blood and is third up and peaking. gets 2kgs off from good rider Jack Taplin. RP $4, $7 FF
Dangers:
6.Dink has had two runs back now and third up should be peaking. He ran a good third here on a Heavy 8 track in a good maiden field. The query is the heavier track as her galloping action says she may struggle in the last 100 metres. Gets 2kgs off and strikes a weak field.
3.Iron Throne won his trial at Avondale really well and 2nd was Winner Patch who won here recently. On debut he was was slow away but ran home nicely for tenth in the second best last 200m sectional of the race. In with a real chance.
8.Call Me A Cab ran some nice races last campaign and ran a very nice third to debut winner Echannay in a trial at Avondale and gets 2kgs off. If they swooping she is right in this.
Race 5
Confidence:1/5
3.Lae Zee we got her at a good price at Matamata and she has had two runs over hurdles and didn’t like it. So back to the flat on a heavy track, she can come with the last run at them again and get up with a bit of luck. RP $6, $11 FF
Dangers:
6.Denbe ran a nice race fresh up when last and running on nicely for tenth in the 3rd best last 200. She bolted in second up over 2200m in a bog, so can upset.
2.Mobilized won strongly here last start and the speed rating was good. Has to be in combinations.
7.Playininasandpit ran a solid third here over 2200m and with natural improvement can be in this. Still a maiden though but gets in on a good weight.
5.Rosina in good form and although most of her good form has been on better tracks, has a chance if the others have off days, which we all have.
Race 6
Confidence:2/5
2.Emac ran a very third second up and with natural improvement with the 2kgs off, is right in this. RP $4
Dangers:
3.Reggae Man led all the way in his trial and relished the heavy ground. 1150m on debut and is a must have in combos.
5.Kahului ran a nice 3rd at the Avondale trials in the slower inner ground and from the marsh stable with George Rooke aboard.
8.Must Bee is from a good winning family and ran a nice trial at Avondale on the heavy track. Has to be in combos.
10.Sonar won his trial well at Avondale although he was ridden out and just held on. I’m not sure he will handle a really heavy track though so no anchor!
Race 7
Confidence:2/5
7.Amusement ran a strong third to Quondo finishing off with the best last 200m. The wide draw may be a plus by this time of day and Tom Wigram claims a nice 4kgs. If they are swooping, he looks an excellent chance as he has win over 1400m and has been racing in stronger fields. RP $3.60, $4.60 FF
Dangers:
4.Feint To East came from the back to win on fresh up but the speed rating was below average. Drawn wide which is likely to be a plus.
3.Sir Fergus went a top 3rd fresh up but has drawn 1 and has a dryer track action, so is a real risk from there.
