Avondale
Just an average weekday meeting on a Heavy 10 track at Avondale. But I’ve sorted out three well bets.
Bet of the Day Race 3 2.Sombr $3 FF SOMBR (G Rooke) – Over-raced through the early and middle stages. When questioned regarding performance
the rider advised that the gelding was not suited by the muddling tempo of the race. Underwent a post-race
veterinary examination which did not reveal any abnormalities.
Value Bet of the Day Race 7 10.Go Joanna $9.50 and $3.10 FF Had her chance and maybe had enough this campaign
Multi of the Day Gin And Bare It, Sombr $10 returns $54 Suggest backing Gin And Bare It up to $50 as it is a Bonus Back Race then if she wins, it goes all up on Sombr.
And for an extended multi you could do the same multi with Go Joanna for Top 3 at $3.10 FF to return around $167
Race 2
Confidence:3/5 Bonus Back Race up to $50 Bolted in
3.Gin And Bare It two starts back led and was run down very late by a very good horse in Lumbridge Castle in a verry good speed rating. She set an even pace there. Then she was given a short break and the ear covers went on and she settled perfectly in front setting an even pace again and then kicked on the turn and won untouched in a very good speed rating. I feel she has learnt what her job is out there now and although up in class, she begins well and will more than likely lead and I doubt if any of these will take her on. The pre-race ear covers seem to settle her down as well. The inside should still be ok and she can kick on the turn again and is a very good chance of winning again, in this Pearl Series race which she is eligible for. She won her trial leading here and bolting in on a similar surface. RP $1.80, $1.80 FF and she may pay more closer to race time.
Race 3
Confidence:3/5
2.Sombr ran a huge race last start when he dwelt at the start, was used up to rush around them to get 2nd outer, was taken wide by another horse and from the head on was nearly plonked over the fence! But the rider got him balanced again and he chased the winner hard and ran a very game second with an ideal wet track action. He has had 3 weeks to recover. He normally begins well so I can see him crossing and getting second outer. The track may be off down on the inside by now so a wide draw may be a positive. The bookies have Capote a $2.35 favourite but he has had every chance in his races and I’m against him on a heavy 10 track with his action. There is nothing else I’m concerned about in this and feel he is excellent value at $3. Rated Price $1.70, $3.00 FF
Race 7
Confidence:2/5
10.Go Joanna put it altogether last start when bolting in and beating Hollaback Girl who ran a game second at Otaki next start in an excellent speed rating. I’m picking they will be coming down the middle to outer by this time of day. She has drawn wide and the map says there will be at least an even pace so Erin Leighton can snag for cover and then angle to the outer, and come with the last run at them. RP $5, $9.50 FF and $3.10 FF
