Hawera
Based on rain and a heavy 10 track as it is raining there.
By race 3 they started coming down the outside on a similar track last year here.
It is a low key meeting but interesting card.
I have previewed all races with my top selections.
I’ll have a last 600 analysis of the tempos at Te Rapa up later today.
Enjoy the ride.
Neil
Bet of the Day Race 2 6.Sight Unseen $2.20 FF 1st $2.10
Value Bet of the Day Race 7 10.Hollaback Girl $4.80 FF 3rd $2.10
Multi of the Day Race 1 2.Malleable $2.90 FF with Sight Unseen $2.20 FF $10 returns $63.80 Yes
Suggested quaddie for $32 for 10% Yes $464 for $1
Hawera
Leg 1 (R4): 1, 3, 5, 6
Leg 2 (R5): 1, 3, 4, 7, 8
Leg 3 (R6): 2, 3, 7, 9
Leg 4 (R7): 4, 5, 6, 10
Race 1 Bonus Back Race
Confidence:3/5
2.Malleable 1st $3.50 was unlucky two starts back and last start ran a terrific second to the smart Hollaback Girl in a very good speed rating on the bog, and there was a wide gap to the third horse. The 1600m suits ideally and he looks set to be very hard to beat. RP $1.80, $3 FF
Dangers:
7.Azizeem fought on very well in the bog for third to a couple of good ones ina good speed rating. The Blinkers going on obviously helped.
5.Ena Sharples disappointed last start on the very heavy ground, but with the rain around, it is likely to be the same so can’t be backed with confidence.
6.Kizkat has been going handy races and can make it into the first four.
Race 2
Confidence:3/5
6.Sight Unseen.1st $2.10 She showed speed to lead fresh up and was a bit keen early but relaxed better by the 600, kicked away on the turn and was swamped by Reconvene out wide in the better ground. The time was almost exactly the same as the R65 race and they went out a bit slower to the 600. She will lead or be outside it, and be hard to run down with that run and she ran well second up last campaign. RP $1.70, $2.45 FF now $2.20 FF
Dangers:
7.Undertheboardwalk has gone some nice races and is from a good stable.
1.Breaker Bay 2nd $9.70 qu $32 trialled up nicely and his dam won six races. Doesn’t deserve to be rank outsider.
2.Mark My Words ran on late on debut and can finish into a place.
Race 3
Confidence:2/5 No Collect
4.Wheelitin is racing really well and won at this meeting last year on a similar track in a slog over 1600m. She carries a winning weight and won here two start back. On a bog she gets every chance. RP $3.80, $5.50 FF
Dangers:
1.Tavis Court the saddle slipped last start and before that was in good form. Gets 2 kgs off and despite being a pensioner, can win.
3.The Confidence has placed 3rd, 2nd and 1st in her fresh up runs all over the race distance of 1400m and gets in on a winning weight.
6.Sandoku nice run fresh up and Lisa Allpress rides but may be looking for 1600m.
Race 4
Confidence:2/5 I’ve left out Digger so he is likely to win!
3.Amazing Son 1st $1.90 may have found 1400m a bit far at this level, so dropping back to 1200m where he won so easily seems logical. He tries hard and should get a nice run on the pace. RP $2.80, $2.30 FF is a bit short as this is a handy small field
Dangers:
5.Hey Hey Baby won strongly last start in R65 class and steps ap here. Very fit and Ralph Manning doesn’t travel unless he has the goods. And she has the light weight of 54 kgs
1.Procul Boy won on debut over 1200m on a 1.15 track. The way he ridden aggressively to lead up, kick clear and was run down late by Mercy and third was Sheaf who won next start, he is ready to fire. Gets 1kg off.
6.Brigit beat Amazing Son from last with the same weight difference two starts back. So she has to be taken on just that alone in quaddies.
Race 5
Confidence:1/5 Tricky race this.
3.Classy Brahma 3rd $2 is fresh up and won like that last campaign. Funnily enough he has a real wet track action and has run second on a bog track, but never raced on a heavy track last campaign. He has drawn out and maps to get the right run off the decent pace, get wider and can power over them. RP $3.60, $4.20 FF
Dangers:
4.Brady went a very good race fresh up when caught 4w in the open and ran a game second to Amazing Son. Second up he didn’t seem happy in the straight and has had a few starts there and gone poorly, so forgive him that run. He has drawn out which is probably a plus and handles a wet track here so at the odds is a decent chance. Blinkers go on.
8.Allyana Belle 1st $4.70 won her maiden well at Woodville then had a blip, then raced in a stronger $35K race at Otaki and was just in behind them copping interference late. She has drawn wide here which is likely to a plus by this time of day and handles a heavy track well. Side Winkers on.
7.Elite Choice scampered through the mud on a 1.17 track and won her maiden well. Nice run next up and gets 3kgs off. Inside draw is a concern if they are coming out wide to win.Blinkers on.
1.See You In Beijing is probably the best horse in the race but on a 1.14 plus track I have my doubts about his action in a bog. If it racing better than a 1.14 track he is a good chance but if not, I’d be against him.
Race 6
Confidence:2/5
7.Malarchy 1st $3.50 built to win very nicely last start and he can certainly make the step up in grade. Gets in with a light weight here and looks hard to beat. RP $3.20, $3.30 FF
Dangers:
9.The Finnster looks an uncontested leader in this and he can be very tough to head off when he gets that.
3.Identikit won here in a bog last year and drops back in class for this after a handy finish last start.
6.Pick Of the Litter races handy and won really well wide all the way in better ground in an R75 race. May see him do the same if this rain keeps coming down.
Race 7
Confidence:2/5
10.Hollaback Girl 3rd Tri $261 seems to be thriving on racing. She won very well last start showing determination to win and the time was better than the R65 race which was the next race. And before that she set up a solid pace only to be run down late and in another good speed rating. Amber gets a kg off which will help but the draw of 3 means she will likely have to steer a path to the outside to win. And maybe in the first race, if Malleable wins like I expect her to do, that will frank the win too. RP $3.60, $4.80 FF
Dangers:
6.Our Lady Brooke ran a nice third fresh up won second up over a 1600m on a bog and has Lisa Allpress to guide her.
4.Reconvene 1st $5.70 built to win in maiden company and did it well coming with the last run. He should be able to do the same here and be hard to beat.
5.Explosive Impact 2nd ran on strongly last start for sixth over 1400m. He won here two years ago at this meeting and raced in decent stake money races last campaign. The 2kgs will help him.
